Russia-Iran ties on the upswing
Vladimir Radyuhin
Vladimir Putin
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Mahmoud Ahmadinejad
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Vladimir Putin has seized the opportunity offered by the changing
landscape around Iran to upgrade bilateral relations across the board.
Consolidation of strategic ties between Russia and Iran was one of the
most significant events in 2007.
A breakthrough came when Vadimir Putin visited Tehran in October to
become the first Russian leader since Joseph Stalin to set foot on
Iranian soil.
Putin is reported to have told Iranian Supreme leader Ayatollah
Khamenei that Russia was ready to "expand ties without limitations" with
Iran. This offer closely resonated with a proposal to form a strategic
alliance against common enemies that the Ayatollah made to the then
Russian Security Council Secretary, Igor Ivanov, when he visited Tehran
in February 2007.
It took Moscow eight months to respond because it insisted on
synchronising the all-round expansion and deepening of Russian-Iranian
ties with Iran's steps to answer the outstanding questions on its
nuclear programme.
Putin did not avail himself of a long-standing invitation to visit
Tehran till after Iran and the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA)
agreed in August on a "work plan" to clarify Tehran's past centrifuge
development work.
A few weeks after Putin's historic visit, Iran handed over to the
IAEA details on its P-2 centrifuge work, prompting IAEA Director Mohamed
El Baradei to say Iran was making "good progress" towards resolving the
outstanding questions.
On December 3, the U.S. released a National Intelligence Estimate (NIE)
report that cleared Iran of the charge of pursuing a nuclear weapons
programme. Significantly, the report which signalled Washington's
retreat from the military option, had been kept under wraps for over a
year.
On the same day, President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad became the first
Iranian leader to attend the Gulf Cooperation Council summit in Doha.
The next day, Secretary of Iran's Supreme National Security Council
Saeed Jalili was in Moscow to meet Putin.
Jalili told the Russian President that the Iranian leadership was
committed to building "long-term, strategic and future-oriented"
relations with Russia.
Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov said after the meeting that
the Iranian envoy had pledged to answer all outstanding questions of the
IAEA "in the nearest time possible."
On December 13, Russia and Iran reached an agreement on a timetable
for the completion of the Bushehr nuclear plant, which had been dogged
by repeated delays and a row over payment.
On December 16, Russia shipped the first consignment of uranium fuel
to Bushehr. On December 17, the Al Qaeda leader - number two - Ayman Al
Zawahiri denounced Iran in a video for backing off from its support to
Iraqi Shia attacks on U.S. troops.
In the last days of 2007, a second batch of fuel rods was delivered
to the Iranian plant. By the end of February, the reactor will be fully
stocked with fuel needed to start it up. Russian officials said this
could happen before the end of 2008.
The sequence of events shows that Putin seized the opportunity
offered by the changing landscape around Iran and worked towards
consolidating the changes. Russia moved to upgrade bilateral relations
with Iran across the board.
Iranian reports said the two countries were discussing 130 economic
projects worth over $100 billion and aimed at boosting bilateral trade
from the current $2 billion to $200 billion in the next 10 years. Energy
will account for much of the planned growth in ties.
Russia and Iran hold between them about 20 per cent of the global oil
reserves and 42 per cent of natural gas.
Russian oil and gas companies are already involved in Iranian
hydrocarbon projects, and the Russian-Iranian trade commission at its
meeting in Moscow on December 13 discussed plans to set up a joint gas
venture to explore deposits in the Persian Gulf and Central Asia.
The JV could undertake, according to Russian energy officials, the
construction of the Iran-Pakistan-India pipeline. An energy axis between
Russia and Iran could eventually lead to the establishment of a gas OPEC
lobbied by Tehran and favourably viewed by Moscow.
This will have a profound impact on strategic equations in the
region. Russia is keen on directing Iran's gas exports to Asia and
keeping the European market for itself. Energy underpins an emerging
strategic triangle comprising Russia, Iran and China.
The latter has signed multibillion-dollar energy deals to buy Iranian
oil and liquefied natural gas and may also be at the receiving end of
proposed gas pipelines from Iran.
If the IPI project comes through, it can be extended to China;
otherwise a Turkmenistan-China gas pipeline scheduled to be built before
the end of 2008 can be connected to Iran (this will merely require
reversing current gas flows from Turkmenistan to Iran via an existing
pipeline between the two countries).
Russia has agreed to strengthen Iran's military muscle. Following his
talks in Tehran last month, head of the Russian Federal Service for
Military and Technical Cooperation (FSMTC) Mikhail Dmitriyev said
defence ties between the two countries "reinforce stability in the
region." Russia has also encouraged Iran's deeper involvement in
multilateral arrangements in the region.
Moscow and Tehran see eye to eye on many regional issues. Both are
opposed to U.S. plans to build oil and gas pipelines on the Caspian Sea
bed bypassing Russia and Iran, and both want the sustainable energy
security in Central Asia and the Caspian to be the prerogative of the
region's nations.
The Caspian Summit in Tehran on October 15-16, which provided a
convenient pretext for Putin's visit to Iran, supported Iran's
initiative to set up an economic cooperation organisation of the Caspian
nations.
The new body will hold its first meeting in the Russian city of
Astrakhan on the Caspian Sea later this year. In a major boost for
Tehran, the Caspian states ruled out the use of their territories for
attack against Iran.
Russia has strongly supported Iran's membership in the Shanghai
Cooperation Organisation. Addressing a New Year press conference in
Moscow, Russia's Deputy Foreign Minister Alexander Losyukov revealed
that the SCO will "soon" end its moratorium on expansion and consider
admission of new members.
He made it clear that Iran, which has an observer status in the SCO,
would be a prime candidate for full membership. He said Iran's
involvement in the SCO was essential for "effective solution of
problems."
Putin's offer of strategic partnership with Iran has a rider: it must
renounce the nuclear weapons option. Following a new round of infighting
in the Iranian leadership, Iran's chief nuclear negotiator Ali Larijani,
a moderate close to Ayatollah Khamenei, was replaced by a former member
of the Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps (IRGC) Saeed Jalili, a
hard-line ally of President Ahmadinejad.
However, Tehran's continued cooperation with IAEA indicated that
moderates have gained the upper hand, at least for now. A strategic
tie-up with Russia is too tempting an option for Iran to turn down.
With Russia's help, it can advance its cherished goal of achieving
regional supremacy and extending its strategic reach to Central Asia and
beyond. At the same time, Iran wants to keep the nuclear option open.
Moscow has firmly linked further defence and nuclear energy cooperation
with Iran to progress in its interaction with IAEA.
On December 23, Iranian Defence Minister Mostafa Mohammad Najjar
announced that Russia would supply Iran deadly S-300 anti-missile
systems, which will dramatically increase its ability to repulse air or
missile attacks by the U.S. or Israel. Russian defence sources confirmed
the report but the country's top weapons export authority, FSMTC, issued
a denial.
However, it did not deny the deal as such but said: "The delivery of
S-300 air defence missiles ... is not on the agenda and is not being
discussed with the Iranian side at this moment." Once again, Moscow is
dangling the carrot.
It remains to be seen if Putin's preferred successor, Dmitry Medvedev,
will display the same diplomatic skills as Putin has done in dealing
with Iran.
The Hindu |