On the allegedly ‘strong’ coalition called the UNF

There is, understandably, a lot of cheering in some quarters over the formal announcement of a coalition being formed among some opposition parties led by the United National Party (UNP). It is reported that there are 12 parties in this ‘new’ coalition, United National Front (UNF). If one were to count out those that are commonly referred to as ‘three-wheeler parties’, the UNF is basically a coalition between two parties, the UNP and the SLMC. All the other parties put together would not be able to poll even 100,000 votes as things stand today. This includes Mangala Samaraweera’s SLFP (M), which is erroneously marked as a ‘main political party’ by some.

What is so ‘new’ about this coalition? The only significant ‘newness’ that could have happened was the JVP jumping aboard. The JVP has stated time and again that it will never get into a coalition with the UNP, although reserving that option by saying ‘we will consider whether to join or not after the Presidential Election is announced’. The JVP has said that its primary concern is the abolition of the Executive Presidency. That’s not the primary concern of the UNF, though.

The UNF pays lip service to abolishing the Executive Presidency, but once you read between the lines you know there’s little sincerity. Such constitutional amendment, whether it is good or bad, requires a two-thirds majority in Parliament and consequent endorsement by the people by way of a referendum on the issue. This is boring stuff. Everyone promises this, everyone shelves the promise citing this or that. Never happens. The only way such change can happen is if the incumbent decides to do the unthinkable: curtail his/her own power. Let us be realistic here; no politician in his/her right mind would entertain such an idea. A statesman, perhaps, but that’s a rare commodity in the current political field.

There is nothing to say that no one else will join this coalition of course, but current realities suggest that this is it; the UNP sweated for months and months talking to various political parties but at the end of the day there are no surprises. Not even a few Government MPs crossing over, which of course would have been ‘news’ and a boost to Ranil Wickremesinghe’s ambitions.

I’ve been reading web comments on this ‘breaking story’ and the response from those who are clearly in opposition to the Government has been more or less euphoric. The small print suggests that the euphoria has more to do with preferred political outcome rather than the potentials suggested by ground realities.

Hakeem is not Ashraff and the fortunes of the SLMC has steadily declined since the untimely and tragic death of the latter. The loyalty-switch of the SLMC in 2001 was critical to Ranil Wickremesinghe becoming Prime Minister in 2001. What we have here is not a loyalty-switch, it is abiding loyalty and therefore the inclusion of the SLMC does nothing by way of ‘adding’ to the opposition ranks. Ranil Wickremesinghe’s UNP of 2009 is a far less competitive proposition than it was in 2005 and this too has to be kept in mind.

So this UNF of 2009 is nothing but a wearied version of the UNP-led coalition that contested the 2001 General Election. Politics in Sri Lanka is about bedding with strangers, the union of ‘incompatibles’ and so one should not rule out the JVP joining the UNF. A JVP in decline hanging on to Ranil Wickremesinghe’s coattails would be a pathetic sight indeed and is likely to drive a significant number of JVP loyalists to the Weerawansa camp or to non-participation in an election. Thus it could only be a JVP of reduced circumstances that would join the UNF.

On the positive side, there is the obvious benefit that accrues from contesting under a single symbol. It gives a greater sense of coherence to the opposition and that’s not necessarily a bad thing for democracy. The key word is to recognize reality to understand the parameters of the possible.

Samaraweera says ‘this alliance is stronger than any alliance formed in the past’. He must be kidding! His tragedy is that he has been utterly incapable of reading the political reality. The sad truth, as far as the UNF is concerned, is that it is saddled with people who make him look like a visionary.

Consider this ‘observation’ by Mano Ganeshan, who bet his all on the LTTE and lost badly: ‘The war is over and my party is happy about it’! Now that’s quite a turn around, isn’t it? What a turn-coat! But then again, the man may have finally seen reason. Congratulations Mano! What makes him make Mangala look good is the following statement: ‘As a result of the peace process the LTTE lost its capacity to wage a guerilla war; I think the UNP leader deserves credit for this war victory as a result’. Now this is silliness unlimited, I believe. The CFA only strengthened the LTTE. It was only a comprehensive effort at putting in place a security net that inhibited (not prevented) the LTTE from carrying out guerrilla attacks.

Had Ranil Wickremesinghe won in 2005 given rhetoric and track-record, Mano Ganeshan would still be visiting the Vanni to genuflect before Prabhakaran and sing the praises of the LTTE.

So, good luck, the UNF. There’s a long way to go and I am sure Ranil Wickremesinghe knows this. He probably knows that he has taken on excess baggage, no-option, no-hope parasites who don’t like Mahinda Rajapaksa’s face and would die a natural death if it went alone. This is true of most ‘small’ political parties, whether one likes it or not, and regardless of choice of coalition.

The best we can hope for from the UNF is that it functions like the responsible and effective opposition that the UNP has never been. I am not being very optimistic here. But I wish the coalition ‘good luck’ anyway.

[email protected]