The great global ricochet
MOHSIN HAFEEZ
We’ve come full circle. The great age of globalisation has reversed
its trend. For some (coincidental) reason, it seems to have struck us at
a time when the global economy has taken a tumble.
What was considered a boon for the world at one time is now
identified as a bane, a boomerang of sorts, for the financial world.
What we see in one part of the world has its ripples floating across
the map. And if that part happens to be America, then the swell turns
out to be more of a dictation, what with the enormousness of everything
inextricably intermingled with the rest of the globe.
We have seen the effect of it in the past and, like no other time,
are seeing it now. The credit crisis that emanated from the US for
reasons of myopia and governmental aloofness has travelled farther than
one had first envisaged it would. It seems now as if no one is insulated
from this tsunami.
Etymology
The etymology of the current crisis may be traced to the greed to
make a killing by lending to less than prime borrowers by charging a
higher premium, based on the philosophy of enlarging the number of
American homeowners.
Headquarters of the Lehman Brothers which went bankrupt |
Underwriting standards lowered across the board as short-term
quarterly financial results started making headlines; violence begets
violence just as greed engenders more of the same, unfortunately with
disastrous results.
The effect of this crisis in the US has been vast. By some reliable
analysis, it will continue to aggravate through 2009 with some respite
creeping along in the middle of 2010. As is market tradition, the equity
market will show some improvement prior to the actual growth in the
economy.
The prognosis is dismal and the world will follow, not precede, this
American recovery just as it did its ruin. With some exceptions, like
the Middle East with its vast reserves from the oil bonanza to somewhat
temper the effects the world will see a series of crises unlike anything
since, perhaps, the Great Depression.
All countries have certain primary dynamics instrumental to the
growth of their economies. In the US, it is consumer spending which
accounts for almost two-thirds of the economy. With free availability of
credit, what first seemed like a virtuous circle soon reared its ugly
head wrapped around in the worst viciousness of its kind.
The GDP growth has stalled and the country has been in a recession
since December 2007, with a negative growth rate of 0.2 per cent for Q4
2007, followed by another negative growth of 0.3 per cent in Q3 of 2008,
as reported by the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) Home prices have
fallen by as much as 40 to 50 per cent in some parts of the country.
Unemployment has increased to 7.2 per cent. The administration has
pumped in hundreds of billions of dollars into the financial system by
picking up shareholding interest in banks. Still, credit has had little
thawing, if any. To the naked eye, that is a crisis of confidence more
than the availability of funds.
Given what we have to deal with, the US must focus on home value
stabilisation. It helps in at least two ways: one, it generates consumer
self-confidence and, thus, helps bolster spending which we badly need,
and, two, it stems bank losses associated with such assets and, thus,
generates room in their balance sheets to lend again.
The TARP (acronym for Troubled Assets Relief Programme) was primarily
meant to purchase distressed bank mortgages so banks could lend again,
starting out with a relatively clean slate. That died its own death as
Treasury Secretary Paulson made a flip-flop and bought shares in banks
instead.
The Federal Reserve, independently, has provided hundreds of billions
of dollars in liquidity by allowing even non-banking financial firms to
come to the window for borrowing and at rates never heard of before.
Besides, it has subsequently allowed a host of financial services
companies to convert to banking corporations, thereby enabling them to
help mobilise deposits for liquidity.
The Fed has also started to buy mortgage-backed securities from the
now state-sponsored Freddie and Fannie to help reduce the conforming
lending rates, and plans to do so to the extent of $500bn in the next
six months.
Foreclosure
The foreclosure of homes is reaching an alarming level and is greatly
contributing to an inexplicable drop in property prices because of its
very characteristic of being contagious.
A couple of things might be in order: one, have syndications, both
international and domestic, buy up pieces of properties in the US, and,
two, aggressively pursue the mortgage modification programme.
Having syndicated companies buy up in blocks homes left abandoned
cleans up the market and offers a promise of excellent returns to the
buyers given the current price-levels.
These buyers are in no need to borrow to buy as we ought to be
pursuing a certain category of consortiums; for example, let’s interest
the Chinese yuan, the Japanese yen, and the Middle Eastern petro-dollar
to flow in.
It creates jobs in the related industries. Besides, it serves the
main purpose of stabilising home prices.
Granted, there is market risk the investors may be exposed to.
Without going into details, and with all the hoopla on the size of the
next stimulus à la Obama, surely there could be risk-mitigation measures
set aside for investors as a part of the total spending in the backdrop
of a trade-off.
Mortgages
Concurrently with this measure, the administration ought to focus on
Main Street by being proactive in modifying home mortgages. Mortgages
payments can be recalculated based on a reasonable proportion of one’s
income, called the debt ratio, by reducing the rate. Another way would
be to elongate the term of amortisation so payments are manageable.
Yet another way is to forebear a part of the principal and base the
new mortgage on the current asset value, with the condition that the
forborne be collected by the sponsor of the scheme at the time of the
sale of the home.
Without some really serious help from the administration, no major
relief can be expected any time soon. The measures suggested may carry
some socialistic undertones but the priority at this time should be to
ignore ideology and espouse pragmatism; it’s whatever floats the boat,
for America and, consequently, the world.
Courtesy: Dawn |