Asia rice panic should subside as farmers rush crops
SINGAPORE: A global rush for rice that has heightened food
security anxiety across Asia should slow in coming months, as consumer
nations replenish lowly stocks, extra crops boost supplies and a sense
of panic subsides.
Rice output is set to rise this year as major producers plant
additional crops, likely slowing or halting a rally that has caused
prices to more than double since January and added a new element of
political risk to policymakers' inflation headache caused by the surge
in global food prices.
Even before those fresh crops hit the market rice analysts and
traders expect the frenzy of recent purchases to ebb as importers grow
more confident on future supplies. "Governments are desperate to build
supplies before things worsen. They are now better positioned.
This increases the likelihood that a crisis can be averted," Abah
Ofon, a soft commodities analyst at Standard Chartered Bank, told
Reuters. The growing unease over rice supplies reached fever pitch in
recent weeks as surging food inflation prompts some of the world's top
suppliers to curb exports, hoping to tame prices at home - while goading
them higher abroad.
Benchmark Thai 100 percent parboiled rice soared from $500 a tonne in
late February to a record of nearly $925 a tonne this week, even though
prices normally start coming off as harvests peak from April to July.
There's a good argument for higher prices. Global stocks have fallen
by half since their early 1980s peak as demand expanded faster than
production, but benchmark prices had hovered around $400 a tonne or
lower since the start of this decade. Thursday, REUTERS |