MARKETS

Tea records negative variance

Sri Lanka tea averages to end May 2011 records a negative variance of 0.39 percent compared with the corresponding period of 2010 which was a record year for averages and production. High Grown averages are marginally higher with a variance of 0.08 percent where as Medium and Low Grown has recorded negative variances of 0.91 percent and 0.29 percent respectively.

CTC Low Grown averages in particular have recorded the highest slide with a negative variance of 7.27 percent. In comparison, Low Grown CTC averages in 2010 did exceptionally well with monthly averages in excess of Rs 400, with the exception of November where the averages dropped to Rs 395.72. Against the back drop of these attractive averages which extended into the first quarter of 2011, what we are seeing today is a sharp drop in prices for this category of tea. From the month of April 2011, CTC Low Grown averages have declined by approximately 11 percent compared with the corresponding period of 2010.

Sri Lanka tea crop for May of 32.0 Mkgs, although marginally down compared with corresponding month of 2010, (33.3Mkgs) is still a very satisfactory crop considering that in March of this year the crop harvested was 33.3 Mkgs which was the highest on record surpassing the previous best of 32.4 Mkgs in 2008. The strong performance in the first five months of May 2011 has helped maintain a slight advantage of 1.5 Mkgs (1.15 percent) over last year which, as already reported, was a record year.

On the global front whilst there is a positive variance on production in Asia (India and Sri Lanka) reports from Africa suggest, crop declines in Kenya, Malawi and Tanzania due to colder and drier weather. June crop from this region is also very likely to be down on last year.

There are reports that heavy rainfall in China leading to severe flooding could lead to production declines. The flooding across Eastern, Southern and South Western China has caused widespread damage to Agricultural crops. It is reported that 171,000 hectares (422,550acres) of crops have been destroyed with more than one million acres of farm land in Eastern provinces inundated due to the floods.

Last week’s large volume of 1.7 Mkgs of Ex Estate teas as expected, met with lower demand and consequently prices declined Rs 15 to Rs 20 and more. A few Select Best Western High Grown BOP/BOPFs sold well following quality, while others tended lower. The Below Best and plainer types too declined Rs 20 and more.

Nuwara Eliya’s continued with its downwards trend with many invoices remaining unsold and prices for both BOP/BOPFs on average only selling between Rs 250 to Rs 280 and Rs 250 to Rs 285 respectively. Uva’s were irregularly lower by Rs 15 to Rs 20. Best Low Grown CTC PF1s maintained and at times were a little dearer, whilst the balance were irregularly lower with a fair weight remaining unsold. High and Medium PF1s too declined Rs 10 to Rs 15 with a number of invoices also remaining unsold.

Another disappointing week for the Low Grown tea prices. The few select best BOP1 and OP1s advanced fairly sharply, but all others met with a lower market. The below best OP1s were difficult of sale with a high percentages of withdrawals. A handful of Pekoe1s met with a dearer market, all others declined Rs 10 to Rs 15.

The Russian buyers were fairly strong but all other markets were rather subdued.

Western Teas

Select Best BOPs declined Rs 20 to Rs 25 and at times more, whilst the below best sorts too eased by a similar margin. Plainer varieties were Rs 10 to Rs 15 easier. Select Best BOPFs were lower by Rs 15 to Rs 20 and at times more while the Below Best sorts were lower by Rs 20 Plainer varieties were Rs 10 to Rs 15 lower. Medium BOPs eased Rs 10 to Rs 30 whilst the BOPFs were Rs 20 to Rs 30 lower.

Nuwara Eliya

Teas BOPs were Rs 10 to Rs 15 easier, whilst the BOPFs too were lower by Rs 10 to Rs 20.

Uva Teas

BOPs were easier by Rs 10 to Rs 15, while the BOPFs too were lower by a similar margin. Uda Pussellawa BOPs were Rs 10 to Rs 15 lower while the BOPFs too were Rs 10 to Rs 20 easier.

CTC Teas

Select Best Low Grown PF1s were irregularly firm to dearer at times while the others eased by Rs 5 to Rs 10 and at times more. BP1s were lower by Rs 5 to Rs 10. High and Medium PF1s were easier by Rs 10 to Rs 20, while the BP1s too eased by Rs 10 to Rs 15.

Low Growns

Fair demand. Select Best BOP1s/OP1s were firm while the Best and the Below Best types were irregularly lower by Rs 10 to Rs 15 and declined further as the sale progressed, poorer sorts declined Rs 10 to Rs 20. Select Best OP/OPAs appreciated by Rs 15 to Rs 20 and more at times, while the Best types were firm to dearer Rs 5 to Rs 10 on average. Below Best and poorer sorts declined Rs 15 to Rs 20 with a large volume remaining unsold. Shotty Pekoe/Pekoe1s were firm to dearer Rs 5 to Rs 10 while the Best and the Below Best types declined Rs 15 to Rs 20 on average. Bold Pekoes declined further by Rs 20 to Rs 25 and more at times. Select Best BOP/BOPSPs were firm, Best types were lower by Rs 5 to Rs 10, Below Best sorts declined Rs 10 to Rs 15, Poor types were firm.

Select Best FBOPs maintained last levels, Best and Below Best types shed Rs 5 to Rs 10, Below Best types too were lower by a similar margin. Select Best FBOPF1s maintained last levels, Best types advanced a few rupees above last, Below Best and poorer sorts shed Rs 5 to Rs 10. Select Best and Best Typpy sorts declined on last levels, Below Best types were often neglected due to lack of demand, Poor types were lower by Rs 10 to Rs 20.

Off Grades

Select Best liquoring Fngs1s depreciated by Rs 5 to Rs 10, while the Below Best and Poorer sorts eased by Rs 10 to Rs 15 and more at times. Select Best and Best BMs sold at firm levels whilst the Below Best and Poorer sorts were irregularly dearer by Rs 10. All Low Grown Fngs shed Rs 15 on average.

All BPs appreciated by Rs 10. Select Best BOP1As along with the Best were lower to last by Rs 5 to Rs 10 and more at times, Below Best and Poorer sorts too shed by a similar margin.

Dust

Select Best Dust1s were firm. A few invoices in the Best and Below Best category advanced Rs 5 to Rs 10 while the balance declined Rs 10 to Rs 15. All secondary Dusts shed Rs 5 to Rs 10. Best Low Grown Dust/Dust1s were firm while the balance eased Rs 15 to Rs 20.

Liquidity crunch: Market in the red

Both indices continued on the downward trend seen for most of this month with the ASPI losing 157.47 points to close at 6892.56 and the MPI losing 161.57 to close at 6439.30. ASPI contracted by 2.23 percent and the MPI by 2.45 percent. The weekly turnover in value contracted by 38.4 percent to record a daily average turnover in value of Rs 1.77 billion when compared with last week’s daily average turnover of Rs 2.88 billion.

The number of shares traded declined by 43.8 percent, averaging 121.9 million shares traded daily as against 217 million traded last week. Banking and Finance sector returned to lead the turnover in value as activity in finance counters was witnessed with the sector accounting for 25.5 percent of turnover in value amounting to Rs 2.26 billion. Second highest contributor to turnover was Land and Property sector which accounted for 13.66 percent amounting to 1.21 billion. Third highest on the turnover value list was Manufacturing sector with 12.96 percent or Rs 1.15 billion.

Volume of turnover for the week was dominated by Banking and Finance sector 169.2 million shares being traded or 27.76 percent of volume of turnover, followed by the Manufacturing sector which represented 22.32 percent of turnover volume as 136 million shares traded. Third highest contributor to turnover volume was the Power and Energy sector, which accounted for 14.56 percent or 88.7 million shares. Market capitalization was at Rs 2,373.08 billion while the Market Price Earning Ratio was 23.3 and Price to Book Value at 3.0 East West dominated turnover list for the week recording a turnover of Rs 814.22 million, representing 9.2 percent of the market turnover.

Blue Diamonds contributed 5.6 percent of the aggregate market turnover recording Rs 499.28. Pan Asian Power accounted for 4.83 percent or Rs 428.64 million. Shalimar was the major gainer in price witnessing an increase of 42 percent in comparison with last week price of Rs 660.20.

The share closed at Rs 940.70. Swarnamahal Finance became another major price gainer witnessing an increase of 42 percent against last week price of Rs 40.00 to close the week at Rs 56.50. Morisons (Non Voting), Chilaw Finance, Indo Malay recorded a gain of 38 percent, 29 percent and 29 percent respectively. Kalamazoo showed a significant price decrease of 47 percent against last week price of Rs 5945.00, to close at Rs 3145 this week. Singer Industries became another loser witnessing a dip of 23 percent against the previous week price of Rs 354.10 to close at Rs 271.2.

Hunter witnessed a decline of 21 percent compared to last week’s price of Rs 1192.40, closing the week at Rs 945. Foreigners remained net sellers this week as foreign purchases recorded an average daily buying of Rs 100.33 million, compared to last week’s average daily buying of Rs 294.62 million, witnessing a contraction of 65.94 percent week on week.

Average daily foreign sales increased by 55 percent from last week to record Rs 161.79 daily average selling as against last week’s daily average of Rs 104.1 million.

Pan Asian Power topped the volume list recording 80.09 million shares changing hands representing 13.14 percent of the aggregate share volume. Blue Diamonds (Non Voting) contributed 9.86 percent of aggregate share volume with 60.1 million shares changing hands. Blue Diamonds (Voting), East West and Amana were other popular shares for the week.

Point of view

As anticipated, retail dominance continued during the week’s trading with very low institutional participation.

Selling pressure continued due to settlement dates and investors cashing in on equity portfolios to meet liquidity requirements to invest in the primary offers. This resulted in both indices recording further declines from last week’s close.

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