Lightning strikes knife and sometimes knife-thrower too

Minister of Transport, Dulles Alahapperuma in a campaign speech drew from that ancient practice of throwing a piece of iron out into the garden when there was thunder and lightning, a practice that is prevalent even today in many parts of the island. He was speaking of the dilemma faced by the UNP leadership when the presidential election was announced.

Ranil Wickremesinghe was in no state to take on Mahinda Rajapaksa and neither was he prepared to risk a new face who might have taken over the party, win or lose. Sarath Fonseka, Dulles argues, was ideal for the situation: he was not someone identified with the party, was his own man so to speak, would take the inevitable blows and draw all threats that might have been otherwise directed towards the UNP.

What really happened? On January 27, Ranil Wickremesinghe announced that the election result was fair and he accepted the verdict of the people. Who caught the fire? Why, Sarath Fonseka of course! Surprised? Some were. Not all.

In early November, writing to the Daily Mirror (Elections: deciding with what we prefer to be stung http://www.adaderana.lk/opinion.php?nid=2054), I outlined the perennial problems of leaders, referring to Garcia Marquez’ celebrated novel on the great Latin American ‘liberator’, Simon Bolivar. This is what I wrote:

‘The author observes a factor that time and again cripples a leader: aides painting rosy pictures, especially about one’s popularity. Back then there were no opinion polls of course, but even today with sophisticated methodologies to ascertain general perceptions, it is a fact that leaders are fed cooked data, just to keep their spirits high.’

Fonseka, fed with fairytales about the mood of the electorate was naturally shocked by the result. He was so amazed that he had to believe that massive fraud had been perpetrated and that he had been robbed. Let’s put things in perspective. Fonseka says that he had won by a margin of 1.5 million.

The Elections Commissioner stated that Mahinda Rajapaksa won with a majority of 1.8 million votes. Thus, the magnitude of the alleged fraud as per Fonseka’s arithmetic comes to 3.3 million or more than one-third of the total votes cast.

If anyone could get away with something like that without a shred of evidence, that person must be the slickest creature on earth and ought to be rewarded for ingenuity, skill and efficiency.

Ranil Wickremesinghe and other seasoned politicians know enough about the realities to conclude that even if there had been foul play it could not have had any bearing on the result.

The Centre for Monitoring Election Violence (CMEV), for example, has said that staff had been intimidated in Anuradhapura, Polonnaruwa, Matale and Kurunegala. There were incidents and concern but the situation had been brought to normal quickly enough to prevent any harm being done. Indeed, had the process been compromised he could have and probably would have ordered a re-poll.

All three districts are UPFA strongholds. It was expected that Mahinda Rajapaks would win these districts. The final results indicate that the aggregate majority for the bulath kolaya from these districts came to 545488. If we subtract this amount and essentially have the vote in these districts split 50-50 among these two candidates, Fonseka still has to account for 2.85 million votes (to prove fraud).

It is all rather silly and the more Fonseka talks the sillier he will appear to be. For such fraud to take place, the Elections Commissioner, the agents of all parties present in the counting stations, the police and all elections observers have to be involved in a monumental conspiracy to turn around the people’s verdict. All things considered, it looks like Sarath Fonseka is suffering from a sad case of sour grapes.

He has said that he will contest the forthcoming general election under the ‘swan’ symbol. He had his moment in the sun. History records that for one brief moment, some 4 million people stood with him. The moment passed and with the passing people moved on, as they must.

They wagered that Fonseka might defeat Rajapaksa. They lost. It was a hopeful effort, but they fell quite short in the end. Fonseka, sadly, was that manna knife that Ranil threw into the political garden. There was a bold of lightning. Fonseka caught it. Had a moment of glory, yes, but it’s all over now.

What of the knife-thrower, the permanent resident of that house called ‘Opposition’? He’s unscathed, that’s clear. There’s one thing he didn’t count on, though and that’s something that our villages are not unaware of.

You can throw a yakada kaella into the garden but sometimes this is not enough to keep lightning from your house. The bolt that struck Fonseka down struck Sirikotha as well. Lightning is a curious thing.

It reveals a wide slice of the landscape in a fraction of a second. And in that incredible illumination, there was this truth that got revealed: the diga palala and location of the UNP’s ‘assured’ vote base: that geography defined as the Colombo Municipal limits.

The Colombans stood with the UNP and the UNP’s chosen candidate, Sarath Fonseka. The results from the rest of the country indicate a serious erosion of the UNP’s vote base. That Fonseka lost the Colombo District is also a significant blow, a lightning strike that has damaged the architecture of Sirikotha.

Fonseka is past-tense for all intents and purposes. He is not a Ranil Wickremesinghe but has proved to be as difficult a customer to market. He didn’t know what he was getting into and that kind of innocence is rarely forgiven.

He was led up the garden path by politicians who themselves are poor at arithmetic, live lives totally divorced from the realities lived by the vast majority of the people and who suffered the worst trick that politics plays on politicians: self-delusion.

There are lessons to be learned there, IF people are ready to drop egos and arrogance and moreover are endowed with even a smattering of those qualities called humility and grace.

Fonseka need not worry of course, but the UNP and JVP have to do a serious re-think of politics.

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