Personal victory for President

Dr Jayatissa de COSTA

The obvious conclusion one can come to on the results of the Presidential Election 2010 is that vast majority of the Sri Lankans are accepting the Mahinda Chintanaya principles laid down in the election manifesto of President Mahinda Rajapaksa. The Mahinda Chintanaya was first put forward as the election manifesto for the 2005 Presidential Elections.

A comparison of the results of the Presidential Elections in 2005 and 2010 would show that the President Mahinda Rajapaksa has obtained very much higher percentage of the total number of votes in 2010.

His main rival Sarath Fonseka hold very much less than the number of votes obtained by Ranil Wickremesinghe in 2005 in Presidential Election. Even though, the Janatha Vimukthi Peramuna which backed the President Rajapaksa in 2005 supported Fonseka this time and still he polled a lesser number of votes.

Honest

This is on one hand a personal victory for President Mahinda Rajapaksa who since entering Parliament in 1970 as the youngest member of it had gradually become an ordinary Member of Parliament, Opposition activist, who did a yeoman service to his party in defeat, later became a Minister, the leader of the Opposition, Prime Minister and finally the Executive President.

People of Sri Lanka have not forgotten that he is an honest politician whose integrity cannot be questioned. His Mahinda Chintanaya which is based on Sri Lankan values, which in turn is a module in the Buddhist philosophy is not only an election manifesto but in reality a way of life.

Whilst getting the fullest support of the Sri Lanka Freedom Party (SLFP) coalition the United People’s Freedom Alliance (UPFA) he was able to attract more and more United National Party (UNP) members solely due to his sincerity to the people.

This is evidenced from the results of the electorates such as Hiriyala, Mahiyangana, which were won by the UNP even in their worst defeats. Thus, it is very clear that the patriotic Sri Lankans have cast their vote overwhelmingly in favour of President Rajapaksa.

Sarath Fonseka, who was a very popular Army General, was backed by the second largest party in Sri Lanka, the UNP and the Tamil National Alliance (TNA) which is the strongest Tamil party and the Sri Lanka Muslim Congress (SLMC), the strongest Muslim party.

The success of President Rajapaksa in 19 districts which he won and got a substantial number of Tamil and Muslim votes in the six districts he lost is due to a number of factors such as, the elimination of the terrorist threat, development of the country during the past four years, not bowing to Non-Government Organizations (NGOs) and international community in their unreasonable demands and above all his natural personal qualities.

The analysis of the results of the Jaffna district shows that, unless we take immediate steps to prepare a genuine voters lists in that district this distorted version of results would be reflected in future too.

What was used for the recently concluded elections in Jaffna district is based on the genuine electoral registers prepared before 1983. Since the emergence of the LTTE rule in the past two-three decades a head count of bono fide residence was not made and included in the Jaffna district electoral registers.

Even though, more than 700 names appear in those registers it is no secret that more than half of them have either left the country or living elsewhere. Some of them are dead now.

Reason

This is the reason for the low number of voter turn-out in Jaffna district. Same is true for the Vanni district also in any event, President Rajapaksa and his party can be complacent about getting a substantial number of votes in those two districts enabling him to win the Kayts electorate and getting about 25 percent of the votes cast in Kankesanthurai electorate.

In Trincomalee, the success of Sarath Fonseka was due to the presence of TNA which enabled him to win the Trincomalee electorate and the SLMC which got the Muttur seat for him.

In the Seruvila electorate President Rajapaksa got about 80 percent of the Sinhala votes and of course of the majority of the remaining votes which comprised Tamils and Muslims. A very large section of the Sinhala voters in Trincomalee electorate voted for the President.

In the Digamadulla district Sarath Fonseka who was able to get not only the TNA support to win over Tamil voters but also the support of the SLMC which in the recent past got the alliance share of the Muslim voters in Kalmunai area.

President Rajapaksa who got a huge majority of 90 percent of Sinhalese votes in Ampara electorate was able to get a substantial number of Muslim votes in the district except Kalmunai.

He was able to get a fraction of Tamil votes in this district due to the support of Eastern Province Tamil politicians like Karuna and Pilleyan. In the Batticaloa district, where there are hardly any Sinhalese voters the above voting pattern was there, except for the fact that Karuna, Pilleyan, had a better say there.

Emerging

In the Nuwara Eliya district the emerging leader of the Plantation workers with the Indian descend, Digambaram was able to win the Nuwara Eliya-Maskeliya electorate by a huge margin together with a narrow win in Kotmale electorate which enabled Sarath Fonseka to carry the Nuwara Eliya district.

President Rajapaksa who won all the districts except Nuwara Eliya in all the provinces other than the Northern and Eastern Provinces could not wrest big cities such as Colombo, Kandy, Galle, Dehiwala and Negombo.

This is due to not only the presence of the substantial number of Muslim and Tamil voters but also due to the influence of the business community which comprised large scale and small scale traders majority of whom normally vote for the UNP. A careful analysis of the result of the Presidential, Parliamentary, Provincial Council and Local Government Elections would reveal that.

As opposed to the business community, the average Sri Lankan rural voter as well as a substantial number of lower middle class urban voters had voted for President Rajapaksa. NGO-backed professionals overwhelmingly supported Sarath Fonseka whereas a vast majority of patriotic professionals have supported President Mahinda Rajapaksa.

In conclusion, it has to be borne in mind that in future, unless we switch to the first past the post electoral system it is inevitable that at least some sections of the Sri Lankan voters would prefer to vote on communal lines.