The day the elephant crawled

The other significant thing about November 26 is that it was a day that the enemies of the State anticipated with relish. They wanted to see in what way the Government would be humiliated and what kind of anxieties and destabilization ensued. Like vultures waiting to prey on carrion many so-called political analysts salivated while checking out Prabhakaran’s annual address to terrorism’s many sympathizers, some in military fatigues, some in coat and tie, some in Colombo’s NGO/INGO enclave and some overseas.

This year was different. No Prabhakaran. No LTTE. No salivating. Instead, we had the United National Party deciding to back Sarath Fonseka’s Presidential bid. We had, as S. B. Dissanayake rightly pointed out at the party’s working committee meeting a situation where neither the elephant symbol nor the colour green would figure in a major national election. The UNP has been reduced to supporting a man who is essentially the candidate of the JVP; the JVP stole a march on the so-called ‘biggest single party of the country’ and we got a situation where the tail actually wagged the dog.

‘SB’ is said to have pointed out that the UNP had found itself in such a sorry state that it just couldn’t find a candidate who was willing and able to offer any kind of challenge to Mahinda Rajapaksa and therefore had to hang on to an outsider’s ambitions. Fonseka then, in a strange twist of fate, has ended up as the commander of an operation to offer ‘salvation’ to a crippled UNP and a floundering JVP, not to mention the likes of Mano Ganeshan (the most vocal voice of the LTTE in Colombo) and Rauff Hakeem (who was distraught and ‘diminished’ by the death of the LTTE’s political chief, S.P. Thamilselvan). And it was also reported that there were some earth tremors in some parts of the island. A strange day, overall.

There are some die-hard LTTE supporters among Tamils living abroad who have refused to accept that the terrorist chief is dead. They were expecting their hero to emerge from somewhere and deliver his annual speech. Some would argue that there was a resurrection of sorts on November 26 because the elements that had committed themselves to derail the efforts of the Government to rid the country of terrorism had found some life in the form of a coalition that challenged Mahinda Rajapaksa and, paradoxically, had as its figure-head one of the key figures responsible to the nation’s most significant post-independence moment: Sarath Fonseka. In the end it is less about personality and more about agenda, one can argue, and in this sense such conjecture cannot be summarily dismissed. Some would say that it was a nice birthday present to the late terrorist leader. Others would say ‘coincidence’. It does not matter, either way.

What does matter is what happened and is happening to D. S. Senanayake’s party. Now we do know that JRJ’s Constitution was tailor-made to ensure a weak opposition. On the other hand, there’s nothing in that disastrous document that guarantees that an opposition party self-destructs. ‘SB’ has correctly pointed out that this situation was brought about by inept leadership. Ranil Wickremesinghe, all along, fought only to secure his post as party leader and showed little concern about the damage he was doing to his party. ‘Reforms’ were aimed at quelling dissent but turned out to be mere cosmetic alterations.

Parties do go through bad times and even terrible times. The one thing that gives a party a change to bounce back into contention is strong leadership.

The UNP bled under Ranil Wickremesinghe and must now play second fiddle to the JVP in Fonseka’s election campaign. It is unlikely that Fonseka will win, but it is widely held that Ranil Wickremesinghe would have fared worse.

Interestingly, now it is in the UNP’s and Ranil’s interest that Fonseka fares poorly because if he comes close to winning, Fonseka will be happily positioned to bid for the lesser but still appealing prize of ‘UNP leader’.

His stature and war-hero status in conjunction with Ranil’s declined popularity and proven lack of leadership skills makes a strong case for a kind of take-over that no one was able to orchestrate. Indeed, if Fonseka’s performance is anything better than that of the usual also-ran, it is likely that he would be called upon to lead the opposition’s Parliamentary election campaign, further padding his already superior leadership CV.

All told, it was a pretty dismal day for the United National Party and in particular for Ranil Wickremesinghe. Wickremesinghe probably understands now that no one is interested in listening to him. ‘Please make me Executive Prime Minister after you win, Sarath!’ is not attracting any attention. Fonseka himself has positioned himself a fair distance away from both the UNP and JVP, claiming that he is not a ‘common candidate’ of either party. Signs of things to come, Ranil and Tilvin will probably note. Both will have to resign themselves to nibbling on the crumbs that Fonseka ‘may’ toss them ‘after’ he’s done eating.

The fate of Ranil and Tilvin are hardly worth the nation’s bother.

Personalities, as I said, are less important than agenda. Ranil and Tilvin may have willingly or unwillingly turned themselves into Fonseka’s puppy dogs, but this does not mean that the agenda of the separatists and all forces intent on destabilizing Sri Lanka took a hit when these two punched themselves. This is why I thought of D. S. Senanayake and Velupillai Prabhakaran yesterday. If party and personality mattered less than overall objective, one of them must be laughing in the afterlife while the other is probably crying his eyes out.

This election will prove who cried and who laughed and the nation will have to decide who they wish laughed and who cried.

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