SPC elections: reflections on the home-and-home

In just over two weeks from now, elections will be held for the Southern Provincial Council. Ask people outside that province what they know of this election and this will be the most common answer: Anarkalli Aakarsha and Nishantha Mutuhettigama. And had any of these people been asked who Mutuhettigama was two weeks ago, hardly anyone would have had a clue.

Anarkalli on the other hand is a familiar name; she's a film-personality and has been in the news outside of the film industry as well. This is what counts in politics today, for better or worse: name recognition. Little else.

Anarkalli's 'outsider' status will count for less than the fact that by the end of the campaign her name will be one of the few that voters remember among the candidates they have to choose from. Similarly, Mutuhettigama's strong-arm tactics will not be the handicap it ought to be. Even as these two quarrel, verbally and/or violently, they are putting distance between them and the rest.

Is that all we can write about this election? I sort of remember the UNP's General Secretary Tissa Attanayaka bragging that the Government would be overthrown in three months, provided that the UNP bags this election. That's a big 'provided', the way things look right now. Not that it was unexpected of course. But just think, here we have Anarkalli and Nishantha at each other's throats and they are from the same party!

The Question: where is the 'opposition'? Working quietly under the radar and doing the hard yards of electoral politics? Well, 'quiet' is right. I might even say 'absolutely silent'. And that would be quite an extraordinary way of running an election campaign; quite against the run of play.

I would like to conclude the obvious. We don't have an opposition. It is like Asterix and the Laurel Wreath where Asterix and Obelix sentence themselves to be eaten alive by the lions, but finding out at the last minute that Julius Caesar was not in attendance (they wanted to grab his laurel wreath), refuse to enter the ring.

The lions end up eating each other. When Asterix and Obelix finally enter the arena to loud boos, the last remaining lion is too full to stand up. The difference is this: Asterix and Obelix were scripted to win; the UNP is scripting its margin of defeat.

This is why this election is not an UPFA vs. UNP (should we even count the JVP at this point?) affair. That's simply not happening. It is UPFA Candidate vs UPFA Candidate.

Well, we have heard the argument that this is not an important election, that it will be different in the Presidential or General Election, that the rank and file will come out in full force and make a difference. Only partly true. The demoralization that usually plagues the opposition (post-1978) keeps getting worse with each successive electoral defeat. Moreover when it so happens that it is not 'defeat' but rout after rout after rout, a critical number of organizers, activists and loyalists can become too disillusioned to work for or defend party. Worse still, they can defect.

A close study of the 1978 Constitution would tell anyone that it was skewed in favour of the ruling party. Nothing short of the unexpected (e.g. assassination of President Premadasa) or fiddling with numbers (e.g. the PA losing its majority and being forced into a 'parivasa' arrangement with the JVP after Rauf Hakeem, S.B. and others crossed over in 2001) can change the course of things. Even in the latter case, the President remained in power and at the right time orchestrated a quick death of the UNF regime.

The realities of the Constitution is however not an adequate excuse for apathy (yes, 'apathy' is what we see on the part of the Opposition). Better days can and do come, but one cannot do anything with opportunity if one is not prepared.

The signs in the Southern Province say that the UNP has given up. Not just on the Southern Provincial Council but politics in general.

They've left it to the Anarkalli's and Mutuhettigamas (at the regional level) to battle it out. And at the national level, they've basically opted for the wait-and-see. Well, wait and see what is going to happen! 'Nothing!' is the answer that awaits the lazy and incompetent. It is such a pity that 'retirement' is not an option some people would even entertain.

And so, by default, ladies and gentlement, it's Anarkalli vs Mutuhettigama in the Southern Province.

The latest is that Mutuhettigama has been referred to a psychiatrist. The way things are going, I am wondering if it's the politician or the voter who should visit a shrink.

Something must have gone wrong somewhere and I am sure all of us are to blame at some level. But if this is all we are getting then let's enjoy the show, what say you?

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