Job losses increasing due to economic crisis - ILO
The International Labour Office (ILO) recently issued new labour
market projections for 2009, showing a further increase in unemployment,
working poor and those in vulnerable employment.
In presenting the new data, ILO Director-General Juan Somavia, said
the ILO’s annual International Labour Conference, to be held in Geneva
from June 3-19, was to consider an emergency ‘global jobs pact’ designed
to promote a coordinated policy response to the global jobs crisis.
“We are seeing an unprecedented increase in unemployment and the
number of workers at risk of falling into poverty around the world this
year,” Somavia said. “This is cause for grave concern. To avoid a global
social recession we need a global jobs pact to address this crisis, and
mitigate its effects on people. The choice is ours and the time to act
is now.”
In the Global Employment Trends Update, May 2009 */ the ILO revised
upwards its unemployment projections to levels ranging from 210 million
to 239 million unemployed worldwide in 2009, corresponding to global
unemployment rates of 6.5 and 7.4 percent.
The Trends report projects an increase of between 39 and 59 million
unemployed people since 2007 as the most likely range. Actual outcomes
will depend on the effectiveness of fiscal expenditures decided by
Governments and on a functioning financial sector. In this regard,
Somavia recalled the important decisions taken by the G20 Leaders at
their London summit.
Updated projections of working poverty across the world indicate that
200 million workers are at risk of joining the ranks of people living on
less than USD two per day between 2007 and 2009.
The crisis is hitting youth hard. The number of unemployed youth is
expected to increase by between 11 and 17 million from 2008 to 2009. The
youth unemployment rate is projected to increase from around 12 percent
in 2008 to a range of 14 - 15 percent in 2009.
Somavia said that past experience suggested a considerable lag of
four to five years on average in the recovery in labour markets after
economic recovery. There was a risk of the global jobs crisis
“persisting” for the next several years.
“This is why the International Labour Conference is considering a
global jobs pact aimed at placing employment creation and social
protection at the centre of recovery policies,” Somavia said.
“The aim of the pact is to make sure that both the extraordinary
stimulus measures together with other Government policies better address
the needs of people who need protection and work to accelerate combined
economic and employment recovery.”
The ILO report said 2009 will represent the worst global performance
on record in terms of employment creation. The report underlined that
the global labour force is expanding at an average rate of 1.6 percent,
equivalent to around 45 million new entrants annually, while global
employment growth decreased to 1.4 percent in 2008 and is expected to
drop further to between 0 and 1 percent in 2009.
The ILO also said that in the 2009-2015 period, around 300 million
new jobs will have to be created just to absorb the growth in the labour
force.
Regional key findings
* In the Developed Economies and European Union, total employment is
projected to shrink this year by between 1.3 percent and 2.7 percent.
The region is likely to account for 35 to 40 percent of the total global
increase in unemployment, despite accounting for less than 16 percent of
the global labour force.
* In Central and South Eastern Europe (non-EU) and CIS the number of
unemployed could increase by as much as 35 percent in 2009. Total
employment is projected to shrink by between 1 and 2.8 percent.
* In East Asia, it is estimated that 267 million people, representing
more than one third of the total employed, were living on less than two
US Dollars per day at the onset of the crisis. There were around 12
times as many people in vulnerable employment as in unemployment.
* In South East Asia and the Pacific a fairly moderate increase in
unemployment is projected for this region, though workers and firms in
export-oriented industries are being hit hard.
* In South Asia, approximately five percent of the labour force is
unemployed but nearly 15 times as many workers are employed, but in
vulnerable employment. The number of workers living on less than USD two
per day is projected to grow by up to 58 million between 2007 and 2009.
* In Latin America, the unemployment rate is projected to rise from
7.1 percent in 2007 to between 8.4 and 9.2 percent in 2009.
* The ILO projects an increase in unemployment of up to 25 percent in
the Middle East and up to 13 percent in North Africa in 2009 compared to
2007. Vulnerable employment is also expected to increase in both
regions. Around one in three workers in each region are in vulnerable
employment and this ratio could rise to as much as 4 in 10.
* In sub-Saharan Africa, an estimated 73 percent of the region’s
workers are in vulnerable employment, and this could rise to more than
77 percent this year. The crisis poses a serious threat to investment in
infrastructure and capital goods that are crucial for the region’s
continued development. The potential harm of global trade protectionism
in response to the crisis should not be understated.
The Global jobs pact: Recovery
through Decent Work Policies
In a separate report** to be discussed at the International Labour
Conference, Somavia said that “unless additional swift and bold action
is taken, employment will remain depressed well after stock markets
recover, the world economy resumes positive growth, and media attention
shifts to other issues. There is a real danger that, once some growth
returns, victory will be declared prematurely, turning a blind eye to
the lingering jobs crisis.”
Underlining the risks carried by prolonged employment crises, Somavia
said that if left unchecked, “the global jobs and social protection
crisis affecting working families and local communities will become a
much larger political crisis.
The simmering ferment of a social recession is there. These tensions
add to the existing anxieties caused by persistently high food prices,
wide income gaps between rich and poor and weakened middle classes.”
“A global jobs pact would stimulate the real economy and sustain
working families through employment-oriented measures. It would reduce
the time to recovery. It would activate the recovery of employment as
quickly as possible together with the resumption of economic growth,”
Somavia said.
* Global employment trends: May 2009 update, International Labour
Office, Geneva: ILO, 2009.
** Tackling the Global Jobs Crisis, Recovery through Decent Work
Policies, Report of the Director-General, International Labour
Conference, 98th Session 2009, Report I (A). |