Green and Red: The dilemmas of defeat

The elections to the North Central and Sabaragamuwa Provincial Councils produced results that were not unexpected in the victory of the UPFA, but in the magnitude of that win. Bagging comfortable majorities in all four districts that went to the polls, the Government established very clearly that it had the support of the county, although there is room for criticism of some of its policies that directly impact on the people.

The victory was clear and unequivocal, coming from districts with very different socio-economic backgrounds. The NCP is largely agricultural being the heartland of the rural economy based on paddy, and is strong in the impact of traditional Sinhala Buddhist culture; comprising the seats of the two ancient kingdoms of Anuradhapura and Polonnaruwa, after which its two districts take their names.

Sabaragamuwa is different in its economy, which too is largely agricultural but with considerable extents of tea and rubber, both as large estates and small holdings, in addition to traditional paddy cultivation; and having considerable investment and activity in the gem industry.

The province also has a small but important population from the plantation sector bringing an interesting mix of cultures seen in the region.

It was the overwhelming and convincing victories in these two provinces that led the President to put a halt to the rumours that were being spread about a snap General Election, which for propaganda proposes alone was the new strategy of the UNP.

There were attempts by some to distort President Rajapaksa’s statement that the mandate of the Government was strong enough to have no necessity for a general election before the due date in 2010; to compare it with President JR Jayewardene’s statement that he was rolling up the electoral map, after the UNP won what is acknowledged as the heavily rigged referendum to extend, by another full term, the life of the Parliament elected in 1977.

The fallacy of this comparison and its mockery of truth is seen by the fact that JR rolled up the electoral map, until he was forced to face the consequences of the Indo-Lanka Accord, only after extending his presidency by another term in 1982, with his main rival Mrs. Sirimavo Bandaranaike being deprived of civic rights, and after the referendum to extend the life of Parliament which was the biggest travesty of democracy since independence.

In sharp contrast, President Mahinda Rajapaksa has said there is no need for a snap general election, after having convincingly won the majority of local Government authorities for the UPFA in March 2006; the successful holding of the first ever election to a provincial council in the Eastern Province earlier this year; and, winning so creditably in the NCP and Sabaragamuwa last week.

The statement that there was no need for a general election at this stage, in response to the UNP’s defeatist bray after yet another defeat, came after the people had on more than one occasion, shown that despite economic difficulties they were still with the Government in its policies of people-oriented development with emphasis on the rural sector, and commitment to the eradication of terrorism.

This was true in the local and provincial elections, and also in their response to the JVP-UNP led strike action last month.

Sinister allegation

The UNP’s call for a general election, in a desperate attempt to cover up yet another defeat at the polls, came after it was evident that the public had not fallen for its litany of polls violence, which it claimed robbed the NCP and Sabaragamuwa elections of the validity of being free and fair.

Their credibility was gone with even the very pro-UNP polls monitors of the CAFFE, as well as the older and more experienced PAFFREL, and the foreign media reporting on the election, saying that polling was generally peaceful, and was largely shorn of the violence associated with elections at other times and places in Sri Lanka.

This is not to say the entire campaign was free of violence, which would be a travesty of the truth. There was violence, in a measure that has sadly become a part of Sri Lankan elections, whoever happens to be in power when they are held.

There is definite consensus that the violence at the NCP and Sabaragamuwa was certainly not in such numbers or widespread as to prevent voters from freely using their ballot on polling day.

Apart from its attempt to divert attention from its humiliating loss in two provinces by calling for a general election, there was also a sinister touch in the UNP’s response to the further setback it has faced to its hopes of capturing power.

This was seen in the charge that its new NCP leader Janaka Perera said at a Press Conference at Cambridge Place earlier this week, alleging that the party’s defeat in the NCP was because Government Agents had been bribed and ballot boxes changed.

This is a serious charge to be made against public servants who are the principal Returning Officers in elections, and on whom the public place their highest confidence in the conduct of free and fair elections.

Politicians can trade charges against each other, which may or may not be true. Even the courts have taken lightly the charges hurled against each other by politicians in the heat of an election campaign.

But when politicians, whether new to the game or not, and one who held a senior rank in the Armed Forces, makes such allegations against senior public servants; and when such allegations come from a well established political party that is said to be supportive of democracy; it leads to serious questions about the motive behind such charges.

Whatever politicians may do during election time, the public have great faith in the public servants who conduct the poll, especially senior personnel such as Presiding Officers and Returning Officers. They work according to strict guidelines given by the Commissioner General of Elections.

To allege that such officers have accepted bribes to change ballot boxes, or not to seal ballot boxes, if not proven in Court, seems aimed at undermining the trust that the public have in those who conduct elections.

It gives the impression that the UNP, in its frustration at being the star performer in repeat performances of the One Act Play of Electoral Defeat, is now seeking to make the public lose confidence in the conduct of elections, because of its continued failure at the hustings.

Government Agents are not such highly paid officers as to be able to afford costly PCs or other senior counsel to take those who make such charges to court. No politician who believes in democracy should tarnish the image of these officers for political gain. What they do by this is to undermine the very process of electoral democracy.

Such allegations are the stuff that those members of civic society, always at the ready to make statements critical of politicians, political parties and governments vis-a-vis their attitude to democracy, and even rush with such issues to meddling diplomats and interfering bodies abroad, should boldly oppose and even seek remedies in court; to prevent the erosion of public trust in the electoral process, that has seen the peaceful defeat of several Governments since independence.

Leadership blues

Such sinister allegations aimed at striking a blow at the electoral process can also come from a threatened leader, fighting to retain one’s hold on a party in the face of repeated failure to lead it to any victory.

It is the UNP’s dilemma of defeat that it is unable to accept and also unable to avoid it again. One can already hear the trumpeting of angry elephants who can only blame their leader for the plight they are in today, with his refusal to make way for any other or carry out necessary change in the UNP’s organisational structure.

It is possible that Ranil Wickremesinghe will try to make use of the large preferential votes that Janaka Perera and Ranjan Ramanayake received, respectively, and the marginal increase in votes the UNP gained, to show that his leadership can yet deliver. But the reality is different.

The increased votes are what come to any party in opposition to a Government as it wears off its time.

This does not show any success in leadership at the national level. One thing this may show is the possibility of One Shot Ranjan and Gun Shot Janaka being more popular than the party leader even at the periphery of the provinces.

This must in turn give cause for even more blues to the green leader, as these two handpicked newcomers could very well pose a major challenge to his leadership, either on their own, or in alliance with others who are seeking change within the party.

There is more reason for Ranil to fear Ranjan today. This comes from his display of some of the stuff of successful politicians in Sri Lanka. One example is his reported quick change of religion from Christianity, to Buddhism, just before the polls campaign began, which may give a sickly feeling of familiarity to Ranil Wickremesinghe.

Whatever his present religion, one is not so sure that One Shot Ranjan’s preferred solution to the ethnic crisis in the country has the full approval of the UNP or even its leadership.

He is convinced that the crisis can be resolved very easily by his offering his handsome self in marriage to Prabhakaran’s daughter. One is reminded of practices in older days when marriages between royalty were arranged to annex kingdoms or bring an end to wars over contested territory.

One is not certain as to Ranjan R’s credentials to any royal lineage. But there are some questions raised about this matrimonial solution to the ethnic crisis. There are those who ask whether Velupillai Prabhakaran, however savage and brutal leader he may be, will agree to give his daughter in marriage to a person whose record in relationships with the opposite sex leaves many questions unanswered; so much for a Gun Shot solution to a vexed question.

The Red Dilemma

If the UNP is caught in the morass of inevitable defeat, the situation of the JVP, after the NCP and Sabaragamuwa elections can be the cause of much concern to those who believed that this was a party of the left that had a future. Not all of its “patriotic fervour”, and the renewed anti- Indian rhetoric have struck any chord with the public.

The JVP today remains in the dump that it got itself into, when it left the UPFA Government and tried to go it alone, and even give leadership to a new alliance of left or progressive parties or people’s organisations. Which way ahead - Patriotism or Marxism (or what they know of it) is the JVP’s own dilemma of defeat.

There is no doubt that the Central Committee and Politburo of the party must be doing a great deal of number crunching and arriving at some very dismal answers from the tally of votes it gained in the NCP and Sabaragamuwa.

The total percentage it polled in the NCP and Sabaragamuwa were 4.9% and 2.23% respectively. When one compares this to what its late leader Rohana Wijeweera polled in the Presidential Election in 1982 (when the JVP polled 4.19% nationally) the figures would show that the party has not made any progress today. In 1982 it polled 5.88% in Anuradhapura and 7.71% in Polonnaruwa; in Ratnapura it obtained 3.26% and got 4% in Kegalle.

The record is even more shocking when one compares today’s JVP score with the votes it obtained in the Presidential Election in December 1999, when Nandana Gunathilaka was the JVP candidate against Chandrika Kumaratunga. The percentages polled were: NCP: - Anuradhapura - 4.18%, Polonnaruwa - 4.66%; Sabaragamuwa: - Ratnapura - 3.43%, Kegalle - 3.66%.

It will need a great deal of agonising re-appraisal for the JVP to possibly understand what has happened to its dream of being the lead party of the left. After nearly 40 years in politics, it is not even near where the LSSP was at that age in its own politics.

It is fast growing clear that, whatever its rhetoric may be; the absence of clear policy is not gaining it any appeal among the people, or the masses it so eagerly woos. That it has no proletarian base was seen in the failed farce of a general strike last month. The party is being tossed about in uncharted waters, with the loss of Wimal Weerawansa and his group adding to its rudderless worries.

Meanwhile, President Mahinda Rajapaksa is being accepted as the person who is best at carrying on the necessary task of defeating the LTTE’s separatism and eradicating terrorism from the country, with no JVP support from within or without the Government.

The rejection of the JVP by the people may not seem a very bad loss for the present JVP leadership as it remains mired in its own obstinacy of backward politics. Yet, it is a matter of much worry for those who wish to see a truly left alternative to socio-economic policy in the country. It seems clear that the JVP is unable to give any leadership in that direction today, and is not likely to do so on the morrow, too.