Nearly 6,500 Tigers killed since 2006

COLOMBO: The Government has the upper hand in a new phase of the war against the Tigers, but it would be foolish to write them off, experts say.

Since the start of 2006, a total of 6,486 Tigers, 1,196 military personnel and 982 civilians have been killed, the military says, estimating there are now only around 5,000 Tiger fighters still alive.

The Government says the figures show they are winning.

“Certainly they reflect the forward march of the Forces,” said Minister Keheliya Rambukwella, Government Defence Affairs spokesman.

“(The South) bought the argument that one has to defeat terrorism, and they’re willing to do the economic sacrifice for it,” said Paikiasothy Saravanamuttu of the independent think-tank the Centre for Policy Alternatives.

“That is sustained as long as the Government will keep demonstrating that victory is both certain and imminent and that sacrifice is worth bearing,” he added.

With improved military training and tactics, an Armed Forces of around 200,000-strong versus Tiger strength estimated at around 5,000-10,000, and superior fire power that includes a clutch of reconditioned fighter jets, some believe the Government can ultimately defeat the Tigers militarily.

“I think it’s quite clear that at the moment the LTTE is on the back of a very long run of significant military reversals,” said a foreign diplomat on condition of anonymity. “The difference really is air power.”

“The Army has got the numerical advantage for an attritional campaign ... I really don’t see a situation where we suddenly see the Army necessarily defeated. But you could foresee a situation where it becomes bogged down.”

Reuters