Sari and Dhoti politics in Tamil Nadu targets New Delhi

The near country-wide protests against the recent gang rape of the 23 year old medical student at New Delhi has compelled UPA government to act on what is a burning issue, through its moves came too late in the view of most protestors, and those who studied the developments in this phase of mass action for systemic changes in India’s society, politics and governance.

A judicial commission headed by retired Delhi High Court judge Usha Mehra, will look into the incident, identify lapses on the part of police or any other authority and fix responsibility for such lapses and negligence. Its report is to be submitted in three months. The public outrage over the rape has forced New Delhi to establish fast track courts and consider important changes to law with harsher penalties for the guilty, moves to improve policing, and change the attitudes of both the police and the people on the rights of women and their safety. The intent is to “find a lasting solution to the problem (of rape) that plagues all metros and towns of India” to quote Finance Minister Chidambaram. Whatever action will have to consider the vast rural India too, which are not free of the epidemic of rape and disrespect for the rights of women that prevail in the country.

The demand for change in official attitudes that has swept across India had compelled Tamil Nadu Chief Minister Jayalalithaa, who was lukewarm in her initial response to the New Delhi gang rape, to later come out with demands for severe punishment for rape, - including death penalty and castration - combined with speedier convictions, in a 13 point plan to end sexual violence and secure justice for rape victims.

State administration

While Jayalalithaa makes these proposals for tough action, several rape cases have been reported in Tamil Nadu, which can cause much worry to the state administration, and the political aspirations of the Chief Minister that are clearly moving in the direction of New Delhi. If the recent public outrage on rape is considered, this is most likely, just as corruption and land rights of peasants, to play an important role in the politics of India.

It is now evident to most political observers that the next general election in 2014 is bound to result in another coalition, with a larger combination of parties, where certain states will have a stronger say in key aspects of governance and important portfolios. Sections of the BJP are already pushing for Narendra Modi, who was recently re-elected Chief Minister of Gujarat for the third rime, and is known for being a “developmentalist” political leader, credited with turning around Gujarat’s economy and making it an attractive investment destination for industrialists. Yet, his nemesis remains the Gujarat riots that broke out after the Godhra train burning incident in 2002.

The other major push for the next Prime Minister comes from the South, in the person of Tamil Nadu Chief Minister Jayalalithaa Jayaram, who is touted as the next woman Prime Minister after Indira Gandhi. The AIADMK which she leads is already making statements that she will be a candidate for prime minister. Interestingly, the recent Christmas celebrations organized by Chief Minister Jayalalithaa were converted into a political platform with AIADMK leaders seeking a bigger role for her in national politics. They asked Bishops of various denominations to offer their blessings to her to become the Prime Minister of the country.

Unrealistic proposals

AIADMK’s organization secretary P.H. Pandian said she would emerge as a force that would decide the path of national politics in the 2014 Lok Sabha polls. “Bless her to lead the country,” he said.

V. Devasahayam, Bishop, Church of South India, quoting from the Bible likened her to the star that guided the three wise men to Bethlehem. “Now the star would move from South to North to rule the country.” This was evidence of the efforts to win over the substantial Christian vote in Tamil Nadu to the AIADMK and Jayalalithaa in the next general election, and help in her push towards New Delhi. The strong, although somewhat unrealistic proposals she has put forward on the rape issue also shows her interest being the key player in New Delhi from 2014.

However, there are signs that she could be faced with another strong figure from the same state, for the office of Prime Minister. It is none other than current Finance Minister P. Chidambaram. Although he does not make statements that hint at his interests in the major portfolio, there are many developments that will make him an important player in the politics of South India. Jayalalaithaa’s AIADMK has already announced that it will have to truck with the Congress in the coming general election. The Congress may therefore have to look for other allies as well as run a strong candidate of its own in the state. Chidambaram has considerable influence in Tamil Nadu politics, and was responsible for getting the AIADMK and rival DMK to be with the UPA coalition during recent crucial for the Union Government in the Lok Sabha, when any defections would have led to major crises.

Indications of the emerging position was made clear recently when Jayalalithaa’s rival in the state, former Chief Minister Karunanidhi made public his support for Chidambaram to be the next Prime Minister. Addressing a function organized to release of a book “P. Chidambaram Oru Parvai” (P. Chidambaram – A Study) – a compilation of views on the man by people from different walks of life, including Prime Minister Manmohan Singh, the DMK leader said the Sethusamudram Project should be the birthday gift from Finance Minister of his 67th birthday. “If implemented, his (Chidambaram’s) name will become part of Tamil Nadu History,” said Karunanidhi.

Political parties

He recounted the gradual rise of Mr. Chidambaram in national politics, beginning as a minister of state for personnel administration. Referring to the huge applause of the audience at the mention of the remark by other speakers that a “dhoti-clad Tamil should be the Prime Minister”, Karunanidhi said this indicated what the people expected of him. He contended there was support for Chidambaram’s candidature for the post of Prime Minister, and urged him to fulfill the aspirations of the people of Tamil Nadu by implementing the Sethusamudram project; a good indication of a major issue at the coming polls.

In what was a hardly disguised reference to the rival in the field, Chief Minister Jayalalithaa, the DMK leader said: “When you say a dhoti-clad Tamil should be the Prime Minister, you would have found a fitting reply to the view that a Sari-clad Tamil should be the Prime Minister.”

As elections get closer, and the Congress remains trapped in its troubles in leading the current ruling coalition, it is evident that the politics of Tamil Nadu will be rolled out to have a major impact on the national election. Both Jayalalithaa’s AIADMK and Karunanidhi’s DMK and their respective allies in Tamil Nadu, will fight hard to see that the next Prime Minister of India comes from there. This will be a challenge to Narendra Modi in Gujarat, and also to Mamata Banerjee of West Bengal, who seems much weakened at present. It is now evident that state politics will play a much bigger role in the future direction of Indian politics, in the absence of strong and credible and leadership in the major national political parties. This is also most interesting for Sri Lankan observers of Indian politics, as to the importance that South India, particularly Tamil Nadu, will play in the coming Indian elections.

It will see the Sethusamudram project being made an issue by the DMK, and no doubt the issue of Tamil Nadu fishermen in Sri Lankan waters and Kachchativu being played big by Jayalalithaa and the AIADMK.