Global food crisis - how to feed 9 billion mouths in 2050?

Sudhakar Tomar

With every baby born, the globe slowly moves towards the imminent food crisis. The signs of danger are more than visible with over one billion population in the Third World countries going to bed on empty stomachs and malnourished. The full-blown problem would not only have social problems but also economic and political. Though, the United Nations and FAO conducted many summits on food security, they all proved to be a damp-squib as they did not come out with any practical and immediate solutions.

Diametrically opposite views and interests of groups involved prevented these multilateral bodies from reaching a consensus. While, one group consisting of food companies, plant breeders and international development agencies, underlined the need to repeat the Green Revolution and increase supply another focused on localization of agriculture, humane treatment of animals and developed nations’ unsuccessful fight against obesity.

Collective action required to fight hunger

Henry Kissinger, the US Secretary of State, in 1971 had promised that nobody would go to bed hungry within the next 10 years. Nevertheless, the harsh reality, endorsed officially, is that over one billion people go to bed hungry every night and every three seconds a child dies of hunger. As we face several challenges on the food front, there is a need to devise multi-pronged strategy to counter the impending dangers. With shrinking rural labour force, we need to increase food and fibre production besides doing all what is needed to prevent climate change.

Increase in food production would, however, address only total food availability of the future but the fact of the matter remains that there are gaps to be plugged in global food distribution as well.

These concerns were highlighted in the food crises when despite record harvests in many agricultural crops we saw food riots in many countries and toppling of the governments, including the Middle East.

Because of severe underinvestment in agriculture, especially in Asia and Africa, global food production has reached the plateau. While we have a slow but continuous population growth, especially in emerging markets, resources are not enough or infinite. Growing urbanization too play a negative role in food production. Today, for the first time, over 50 percent people are living in the cities. This will go up to 70 percent in 2050.

In the developed and developing economies food is not only required to fill bellies but also to produce bio-fuels to run our vehicles. We need increased production of corn, rapeseed, and sugar as raw materials not only for food but to produce bio fuels.

Rising income levels in emerging markets lead to increased consumption of unhealthy food, thereby raising the demand for fat and meat. The gap in per capita consumption of food among different countries is already narrowing. What really scares me is the thought that if Indians or Chinese start eating (which they will do if they keep on getting richer) meat at the per capita level of the United States, believe me there will be left no chicken or beef or pork in the world.

Outlook for future

The FAO Food Price Index (FFPI) rose to record levels in the2011. Although the world population is growing at a slower pace than in the past, we will still reach the 9 billion mark in 2050 which would mean almost 2.5 billion more mouths to feed. Nearly all of this growth is forecast to take place in the developing countries. In 2050, as per FAO estimates, we would require raising overall food production by some 70 percent. Production in the developing countries would need to go up or they will have to import 100 percent more than what they do now.

We need to grow additional 3 billion tons of cereals by 2050, up from today’s nearly 2.1 billion tons. Demand for meat and dairy products, seafood, fats and oils will grow at a much faster rate than that for cereals for food use. Overall meat consumption even in developing countries is expected to account for around 82 percent of the total demand. As far as bio fuels are concerned, many countries have global mandate and have committed resources to produce over 200 billion barrels per year in the next seven years, the US alone accounting for 30 percent of this production. These numbers are important because about 300 million of tons of food will be burnt to produce gas to fill the car tanks instead of empty stomachs. As if these problems are not enough we have continued denial on global warming and climate change which is going to test the effectiveness and speed of global food production supply chain.

Basic question

The real crisis is not the mismatch of demand and supply but the mismatched distribution of food and calories between those who don’t have enough to eat and those who have too much to eat. On the one hand, we have over 1 billion hungry people, on the other we have over 30 percent of Americans who are obese.

It is Ironical that every 4 minutes 2090 cows, 9150 pigs; 334,120 chickens are slaughtered to feed the people but at the same time 100 children die of hunger. It is ironical that over 1.1 billion people don’t have access to clean drinking water but we use 20,000 liters of water to produce 1 kilo of beef. Unless addressed, both at macro and micro level, this situation will worsen due to our continued apathy towards the issue of Climate Change. It is certain that given the current pattern of yields and calorific availability there will be 7 percent less availability of food in 2050.

How do we feed these additional 2.5 billion mouths:'11 Commandments' to help solve the global food supply and demand conundrum

1. Use the best available technology to improve farm yields without mindless exploitation of land. The world’s population is growing at just over 1 percent a year; and we also need for allowing something extra to feed animals so the food production would have to be raised by around 1.5 percent a year. This may look insignificant but it is a great deal more than the current growth rates. Fortunately, there is great potential to increase production in the third world where yields are still lower than the world average.

2. We need to address the dangers of ignoring Climate Change.

3. The gap between the technology in the lab and small farmers has to be bridged especially in the developing world.

4. We need increased investments from private as well as public sector in Research and Development and agriculture

5. Bio-Fuel bogey has to know its limits. Burning food can never be justified if millions are dying of hunger and malnutrition.

6. We have to reduce volatility from the market by reviewing our trade policies. Doha Round of negotiations must end now and be implemented so that trade distorting current trade policies, particularly agricultural subsidies in rich countries and export restrictions during crises, must stop.

7. We need to improve market transparency. The FAO should intensify its information gathering and dissemination efforts. For Commodity exchange, the regulatory frameworks must also be reviewed to reduce speculative behavior but over-regulation must be avoided as it could limit the market ability to discover prices and provide liquidity.

8. As human being we should respect our resources and use them judiciously and in moderation.

9. We have to save our crops, especially in the third world from pests and diseases because we lose almost 50% of the crops right in the field and a significant portion is damaged due to bad storage and almost non-existent supply chain.

10. Almost 40 percent of food is lost or thrown away in North America and Europe between the shop and the dining table. Both in the rich and poor countries, a staggering 30-50 percent of all food produced rots away uneaten. If all rich countries waste food at the same rate as Britain and America, that adds up to roughly 100kg per person per year, the total waste would come to 100 million tons of food a year, equivalent to one-third of the entire world’s supply of meat, an astonishing quantity. If waste in the western could be halved and the food distributed to those who need it, the problem of feeding 9 billion people would vanish.

11. We all need to adjust our lifestyle and that holds valid not only for rich but also for poor . When we earn more money we should eat smart and efficient foods for example pulses and legumes. Let us try to understand how smart protein such as pulses, beans, lentils fit in our scheme of things. The world is addicted to inefficient animal protein diets such as Meat and Dairy products which use up almost 33 percent of earth’s cultivatable land. The production of meat and dairy is inefficient as it need 12 to 18 units of agricultural and food crops to raise one unit of meat protein for example current global consumption of 300 millions of meat requires over 4.5 billion tons of food crops. Another example is the amount of resources we need to grow 1 kilo of meat equals to growing 160 kilos of potatoes. Moreover animals are the biggest producer of greenhouse gases. They produce over 18 percent of greenhouse gases more than our cars. Our present consumption of meat is about 300 million tons and it is estimated that in 2050 the world will need nearly half a billion tons of meat and over a billion tons of milk from the present level of 580 million tons of milk.

If global community targets to consume less meat and dairy products for example a minor replacement of just 10 percent of animal protein ( at the food processing and manufacturing level ) with vegetable protein (pulses protein) it will free up about 500 million tons of 'economical' food in the market assuring sufficient supply of 'cheaper' food. A study by Cornell University proved that by using such smart solutions and without compromising the required per capita intake of meat USA alone could feed 800 million people.

So in a nutshell a healthy lifestyle full of smart foods like Pulses, improving yields and reducing wastage at the farm and supply chain in Asia and Africa and by not wasting food at the dinner tables in the west we can help solve the food crisis within our lifetime.

(The writer is the Managing Director of Hakan Agro DMCC, United Arab Emirates’s largest agribusiness trading organization)