Turmoil threatens Obama’s Afghan endgame
* US-backed reconciliation talks with Taliban have collapsed
* 57% in opinion poll say US troops should be home as soon as
possible
US: Deadly setbacks, an Afghan leader at the “end of the rope”
and pressure from a public weary of sacrifice are threatening to upend
President Barack Obama's endgame for America's longest war.
The central premise of US war policy -- leaving behind a stable
nation that Afghans can secure and thwart an Al-Qaeda renaissance --
appears in question.
Relations with President Hamid Karzai are plumbing new lows after an
American soldier launched a rampage against civilians, then was
airlifted out of the country to face US military justice.
Deadly riots that followed the burning of Korans by Americans, a
spate of incidents in which Afghan soldiers turned their guns on NATO
tutors and regular combat deaths have posed the question: is the war
still worth it? US-backed reconciliation talks with the Taliban
meanwhile have collapsed, dampening hopes of a political settlement to
guarantee stability after NATO-led forces leave in 2014.
A furious Karzai this week called for a withdrawal of US forces from
villages after the massacre of 16 civilians and demanded an accelerated
transfer of security control.
His outbursts have deepened the feeling among some in Washington that
Karzai, once seen as a hero, is an unreliable ally unworthy of US
sacrifices.
Obama was forced to call Karzai twice in a week, as the Afghan leader
admitted that he was at “the end of the rope” with US missteps.
Moeed Yusuf of the US Institute for Peace warned that such incidents
could undermine efforts to keep Obama and Karzai “on the same page.” “If
this continues, I don't see how one can hold on to the strategy, which
is in large parts dependent on having the goodwill of the average
Afghan.”
US ambassador to Kabul Ryan Crocker, however, hinted that Washington
believed Karzai was venting for domestic political reasons, telling “PBS
Newshour” he was right to be “pretty upset” over the massacre.
But the latest setbacks, as NATO plans to scale down to a support
role in 2013, focused attention on the compromised nation foreign troops
will leave behind.
“What we hand off, when we hand off, at best is going to be a
stalemate,” said Stephen Biddle of the Council on Foreign Relations.
“I don't personally think there's any reasonable expectation the
Afghan National Security Forces are going to be able to substantially
expand the zone of control that they receive from us.” Given such a
pessimistic outlook, some analysts say it may be time to limit the
exposure of NATO trainers.
Charles Dunlap of Duke University Law School suggested Afghan
soldiers might be given intensive training outside the country, to
contain the aggravation posed by a large foreign force.
“What I am suggesting is a much smaller footprint with Afghans in the
lead. We are moving that way, but I think we need to accelerate it.” --
When will troops come home? Obama said Wednesday he planned no “sudden”
changes to a plan that will complete the pullout of 33,000 surge forces
this summer, though a larger draw down is almost certain next year.
But could increasing the pace of departures squander gains made in
the blood of 3,000 dead coalition troops? “It gives hope to our enemies,
which might be one reason why we see the Taliban announcing they are
walking away from the early stages of peace talks,” said Max Boot, also
of the Council on Foreign Relations.
“Why should they negotiate when they know our time, our commitment is
waning and our presence is time limited?” But to stay on longer would
require leaders to explain why they are leaving young men to die in
Afghanistan when progress seems so incremental.
With Osama bin Laden dead and Al-Qaeda dismantled in Afghanistan,
public in NATO nations may wonder whether two more years of sacrifice is
worth it.
Obama took on that question head on as he appeared with top war ally
British Prime Minister David Cameron on Wednesday.
“This is a hard slog... (but) we're now in a position where, given
our starting point, we're making progress. And I believe that we're
going to be able to achieve our objectives in 2014.” Obama faces a
political dilemma: he wants to tell voters in November he got troops
home from Iraq and will soon exit Afghanistan.
But an over-hasty withdrawal could risk igniting more trouble late in
his election campaign, or so weaken Afghan strategy that a deeper crisis
could detonate in his hoped-for second term.
AFP |