US gambles on special forces in Afghanistan strategy
US: As it draws down troops in Afghanistan, the United States
plans to rely heavily on its special forces, gambling the elite troops
can serve as a firewall to prevent the Taliban seizing back power,
experts and officials say.
Having backed a major troop buildup when he entered office, President
Barack Obama is shifting course, opting for a scaled back military
presence built around 9,000 special operations forces focused on
training Afghan troops and striking insurgent leaders, officials said.
"It's a natural progression," said one defense official, who spoke on
condition of anonymity.
"As the mission becomes more focused on training, it makes sense that
special forces take on more importance. Training is one of their primary
missions. That's what they do." The approach reflects lowered
expectations about what can be accomplished after ten years of war and
carries an array of risks, analysts and former officials said.
"It's a policy calculation that these (conventional) troops won't be
needed. I would bet there would be some challenges," said Jeffrey
Dressler, an analyst at the Institute for the Study of War.
Obama's initial strategy was to knock back the insurgency in
strategic areas in the south and east, gaining the upper hand on the
battlefield to pave the way for handing over security to the Afghans and
possible peace talks.
But while the Taliban lost ground in the south, NATO-led forces have
yet to roll back the insurgents in the east and the war is still widely
seen as a stalemate.
"The military mission is not complete," said Seth Jones of the RAND
Corporation, a former adviser to special forces commanders.
A smaller NATO military footprint could allow the Taliban to gain
back lost ground on the battlefield, especially in the southern Helmand
province, possibly undermining Kabul's bargaining power in any peace
talks with the insurgency, he said.
Obama's wager, however, has a chance of succeeding if the military
aim is much narrower -- to avert disaster instead of fighting the
Taliban in every corner of the country, Jones said.
"The only way this is likely to work is if the objectives begin to
change," Jones said.
"If the US objectives are to prevent the Taliban from overthrowing
the Kabul government, that may be something that is achievable."
Already, the United States no longer expects the central government in
Kabul to provide security in every area. Instead, the US military has
built up local police forces, leaving it to towns and villages to fend
off the insurgents, he said.
It remains unclear how the drawdown of most coalition troops by the
end of 2014 will affect the morale of Afghan forces as well as the
West's uneasy relations with Afghan President Hamid Karzai.
Deploying and supplying special forces will require continued
cooperation from the Afghan government, which harbors deep distrust of
the special forces due to aggressive night raids and assaults that have
claimed civilian lives.
AFP |