Cancun to Durban to Weligama: COP 17 handouts

It's not 'doomsday sooth-saying' anymore. Thousands of scientists upon research and observation have confirmed that climate change and global warming to be a real threat to all life on earth. It is no longer a phenomenon the world's powerful 'leaders' can pick up every year when a global climate conference is held, and then move on to place it in their backburners.

The truth is that their otherwise busy agenda; in managing self-inflicted debt burdens, related financial crisis and overt and covert battles for dominance of vital resource ownership does not permit them to think and act in the long-term well being of 'our only home' as Archbishop Desmond Tutu recently chose to call Mother Earth. We as human beings are not doing enough to mitigate this 'huge, huge enemy called global warming and climate change' he said, calling for sacrifices to be made by the rich and poor to take bold and brave steps to seek lasting solutions.

Here and now

Closer home, last week we got another taste of it, when intense depressions caused heavy rains and gale force winds. They blew across our Southern coast killing 19 people and injuring many more. Reportedly, 43 people have gone missing while 22,616 from 5,220 families were displaced in Galle and Matara districts alone, as a result of this sudden gale and gush of rain. Among the missing were 30 fishermen from Kapparathota in Weligama, of whom only ten bodies were found by Sunday last. Over 600 houses were destroyed, while 4,500 were partially damaged. The Meteorological Department has been asked to submit a report this week on the Department's alleged failure to forecast such catastrophic weather. They are often blamed for being lackadaisical in weather forecasting despite modernization of the facilities. Apart from possible human error, I have often heard responsible met officers refer to their helplessness in making proper assessments for these happen at random and are mal-effects of climate change.

Giving it further thought, we should query if the Thai meteorology authorities could have predicted the intensity of the catastrophe that befell the city of Bangkok in the recent floods as a result of heavy rain in catchments. It is the same with the bush-fires in Australia's Queensland or this week's devastating floods in New South Wales. The question we should be asking ourselves is, if what we see happening around us and more so the frequency of its occurrence is, usual phenomenon. The small island nations all around the globe including our neighbor Maldives are the hardest hit and one wonders if they can be saved with the Green Climate fund, when the ocean around them will keep on rising as a result of the continued warming of the poles and the melting of the ice-burgs.

Beyond funds and technology

If we were to fool ourselves that the proposed hand-out of funds (US $ 100 billion a year Green Climate Fund) and innovative technology (Cooperation on Clean Technology) alone can mitigate the already out-of-hand climate change parameters for the better, we perhaps are only kidding ourselves. They indeed are necessary but will they be sufficient? Much like the 'bourse' type invention of 'you pay me for the merit I have acquired (saving of CO2) and buy from me a warrant to sin with it (Right to emit equivalent doses of CO2)' instrument of the 'Carbon Offset Fund' mechanism, these will also serve to woo those who choose to look at the availability of funds as serving their short-term political survival needs. Yet, the real solution to the issue of climate change mitigation of changing our lifestyles, adopting more environment friendly ways of life all round, will remain being a far cry in the wilderness.

Small steps

In my mind, that is just what the COP (Conference of Parties) of the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCC) may achieve when for the 17th time 'climate negotiators' have gathered in Durban, South Africa during this and the next two weeks. As a safeguard, the organizers have chosen to call it 'A Summit of small steps', in contrast to the huge hue and cry made of the Copenhagen Conference of 2009 calling it 'Hopenhagen'. What we in effect saw in its aftermath was failure where achievement fell far short of pre-event expectations.

We saw a somewhat theatrical performance from the US president who at the penultimate hours of the Copenhagen summit brokered a new alliance banding US, China, India, Brazil and South Africa. They chose to hurriedly draft a separate 'Copenhagen Accord' which was 'noted' by the rest of the countries attending but not adopted in agreement. None of the big economies were willing to 'mitigate' their wasteful ways while those who are yet to get there were resisting being asked to do so by the larger emitters.

Threshold levels

This month, two separate UN reports stated that greenhouse gases had reached record levels in the atmosphere. According to them an unduly warming globe is expected to lead to heavier rainfall, more floods, stronger cyclones and more intense droughts, some of which we have already begun to experience. The UN's International Energy Agency has predicted that even the measures that have been agreed on and are yet to be actioned may be inadequate to prevent the planet from heating up beyond the 2 degrees Celsius level.

Climate change mitigation action that began with the Kyoto protocol adopted as far back as 1977 and came into action in 2005 is still to make any substantial impact on moving their nations towards such action sans a few exceptions like Japan, New Zealand and the Nordic countries. What the protocol in essence called for was for all countries to take on proportionate and effective mitigation action to reduce CO2 and other green house gas emissions they made to the earth's atmosphere.

Lifestyle changes

The two largest emitters the United States and China have for years now resisted signing the protocol agreements causing a huge dent in the ability of Kyoto agreement to be successful. According to sources, the European Union, New Zealand, Australia, Norway and Switzerland are likely to sign up at best in agreement of meeting their commitments. China will be unwilling to make any commitment until Washington does the same. Russia, Japan and Canada who are current signatories all say they will not sign up to a second commitment period, unless the largest emitters also meet their fare share of commitment.

Real mitigation action on climate change to halt global warming will call for intense austerity measures within developed economies. Big emitters US, China and Europe will need to take measures that will ensure that their citizens adopt more modest lifestyles. Developing nations will be vary of carbon caps, for that could hurt their growth and with it the ability to lift millions out of poverty.

But then, do we and those that are now in Durban determining our future, have any choice but resolve to take on such action?

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