Auto industry lowers growth forecast
Automobile industry body SIAM on Monday lowered its vehicle sales
growth forecast for FY’12 to 11-13 percent from 12-15 percent announced
three months earlier, mainly due to higher interest rates and rising
fuel prices.
Customers at a Nano show room |
The Society of Indian Automobile Manufacturers (SIAM) also predicted
a lower growth of 10-12 percent during 2011-12, as against 16-18 percent
announced earlier.
It, however, said India became the top growing passenger car market
in the world during the January-June period this year, overtaking the
US, which grew at 14.40 percent.
“Increase in interest rates has been higher than what we had thought
three months earlier... Fuel price rise is more than what we had
anticipated,” SIAM President Pawan Goenka said.
He, however, said commodity prices, which are another big concern for
the auto industry, have started softening in recent months and hence, it
is unlikely that any company will raise the prices of their products.
“We are sitting at a threshold where if interest rates go up further,
it will have a devastating impact on the industry. The three biggest
concerns at present for the industry are lower general sentiment due to
lower GDP forecast and various scams, higher finance rates and
increasing fuel prices,” Goenka said.
In the first quarter, two leading car-makers, Maruti Suzuki and Tata
Motors, did not experience good growth, he said, adding, “The rest of
the quarters of this fiscal depend on how Maruti Suzuki and Tata Motors
perform.”
Labour unrest, which had completely stopped production at Maruti
Suzuki’s Manesar plant for 13 days, is another major concern for the
auto industry of the country, he added.
Stressing that the industry will grow at a double-digit rate, Goenka
said: “Our revised forecast is now 11-13 percent for the entire auto
sector. Both the passenger car and passenger vehicles segments have been
projected to grow at a lower rate 10-12 percent in FY’12.”
With expectations of a good monsoon season and arrival of the festive
season, sales in the passenger vehicle segment are likely to pick up
again at the end of this quarter, he added.
There were 13 new launches in the both the passenger vehicles and
two-wheeler segments last quarter. Besides, the passenger vehicle and
two-wheeler industries both saw three vehicles being refreshed to suit
consumer tastes, Goenka said.
Dwelling on the forecast, SIAM said the growth projection for the
two-wheeler segment has been unchanged, while that of the three-wheeler
segment has been lowered to 8-10 percent from 9-11 percent.
Utility vehicle sales will surge by 10-12 percent compared to 12-14
percent announced earlier, he said.
Goenka said the commercial vehicle segment is likely to witness
slower growth of 12-14 percent than the earlier projection of 14-16
percent.
While sales in the light commercial vehicles segment are now
estimated to rise by 17-19 percent, instead of the earlier forecast of
18-21 percent, medium and heavy commercial vehicle sales are expected to
be up by only 8-10 percent, as against 10-12 percent, he added.
Talking about India’s performance compared to other global markets,
Goenka said: “In passenger vehicles, India was the fastest growing
market at 18.20 percent in the first sixmonths of 2011. However, it was
at the fifth position with 12.70 percent in the commercial vehicles
category.”
In the passenger vehicles category, the US was the second fastest
growing market in the world, with a 14.40 percent jump in sales.
Germany, China and Brazil followed the list with a 14.30 percent, 11
percent and 8.30 percent increase in sales, respectively.
In the commercial vehicles segment, Germany was the fastest growing
country, with sales rising by 28.20 percent year-on-year, followed by
the UK, Brazil and the US, which experienced sales growth of 26.30
percent, 18.70 percent and 13.70 percent, respectively, Goenka said. (PTI.)
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