COP16 Cancun Agreements :

Glass half empty or half full?

limate change is considered a serious problem for humankind and the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) seeks to address the issue through a series of annual meetings of Governments called Conference of Parties (COPs). Unlike COP15 in Copenhagen in 2009, expectations were kept deliberately low going into COP16 in Cancun this year. By lowering the bar, participating nations were able to claim significant success, although actual progress was quite modest and fell well short of what is needed to address the problem of climate change.

• Shared the 2007 Nobel Prize for Peace, as Vice Chair of UN Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC-AR4)

• Chairman of the Munasinghe Institute for Development (MIND), Colombo

• Professor of Sustainable Development at the University of Manchester, UK

• Distinguished Guest Professor at Peking University, China

• Honourary Senior Advisor to Sri Lankan Government

The pessimists point out the following shortcomings:

Prospects for a multilaterally binding agreement on mitigation (to reduce CO2 emissions) have receded. Voluntary, non-binding and non-enforceable targets appear to be the accepted norm.

The Kyoto Protocol is greatly weakened and many feel it will simply fade away.

The COP process is moving further and further away from the universally agreed UNFCCC principals of 1992.

Concepts based on equity, climate justice and ethics are ignored, including the 'carbon debt' of rich nations, 'right to develop' of the poor, 'per capita emissions' as a key benchmark and inequitable and disproportionately large impacts on the poor and vulnerable.

Optimists argue that:

Countries made a major effort to show unanimity and reach consensus. The agreement reiterated the global target of 2 degrees C as the danger limit and confirmed the need for countries to work together to avoid this outcome.

Voluntary mitigation targets and actions by developed countries will be recorded and recognized. Developing countries actions will also become eligible for technological and financial support. The CDM process will be strengthened to promote more investments and technology in sustainable emission reduction projects in the developing world.

The 'Cancun Adaptation Framework' will help the poorest and most vulnerable who will suffer the greatest impacts. $30 billion will be raised for adaptation by 2012, with a target of $ 100 billion by 2020. However, this is still far short of about $ 250 billion that will be needed.

The REDD+initiative will further promote actions to curb emissions from deforestation in developing countries with technological and financial support.

Prospects and need for an integrated action agenda

Most of the major decisions and actions have been postponed to COP17 in South Africa and beyond. My personal view is that Government negotiators have little incentive to reach agreement and COP17 will also yield disappointing results. To see satisfactory progress, we may have to wait until COP18, which coincides with the UN conference on sustainable development (UNSCD) in Brazil in 2012.

Urgent development problems like poverty, inequity, hunger, environmental harm and resource shortages, will be exacerbated by emerging issues like climate change. They need to be addressed together within an integrated sustainable development strategy. At the 1992 Rio Earth Summit, I presented such a comprehensive framework called Sustainomics, for making development more sustainable. It shows us how we can practically move towards greater sustainability. Today, by taking simple steps along three main dimensions-economic, social and environmental. Given the many existing best practice examples worldwide, it is not necessary to wait for new technologies, laws, or infrastructure.

Ordinary citizens are often ahead of political leaders in terms of willingness to address sustainable development and climate issues. The 1.4 billion richest people in the world consume over 80 percent of output-over 60 times more than the poorest 1.4 billion. The affluent have an obligation to demonstrate leadership by behaving more sustainably. This can be done without lowering their quality of life, for example by using energy-saving light bulbs, eating less meat, planting trees, or using fuel efficient vehicles. A set of global objectives for the rich (like the millennium development goals or MDG for the poor) would cut across national boundaries and parochial interests, without requiring major Government treaties and interventions.

Many responsible companies are developing sustainable and low-carbon products and processes. As sustainable consumers and sustainable producers, we can collaborate to develop sustainable lifestyles and sustainable communities that will be an example to others. This will also push political leaders (who currently lack the political will) to take the right action. The poor also deserve to be given the opportunity to improve their lives, buy without duplicating the profligate and carbon-intensive lifestyle of the rich.

Markets driven by a 'greed is good' philosophy are inherently unsustainable and need to be regulated effectively. Priorities must be revised. For example, Governments quickly found over five trillion dollars for stimulus packages to bail out banks and revive shaky economies.

Meanwhile, annual military expenditures are currently around 1.5 trillion dollars.

However, poverty reduction efforts receive one fifteenth of that amount (a mere 100 billion dollars per year), and far less is devoted to combat climate change. We need to teach sustainable and ethical values to young people early and provide them the practical tools to move forward towards a better future.

All human beings are stakeholders when it comes to the many problems of sustainable development.

Governments alone are increasingly finding it difficult to address the multiple problems they face.

Therefore, consumers and producers must rise to the challenge and work with political leaders.

They can and must strive to make development more sustainable economically, socially and environmentally. The major problems of sustainable development and climate change need to be addressed at the same time.

By acting together now, we will make the planet a better and safer place for our children and grandchildren.