Record rise in jobless youth
Cause: World economic crisis, says ILO
Global youth unemployment has reached its highest level on record,
and is expected to increase through 2010, the International Labour
Organization (ILO) said in a new report issued to coincide with the
launch of the UN International Youth Year August 12.
The report says that of some 620 million economically active youth
aged 15 to 24, 81 million were unemployed at the end of 2009 — the
highest number ever. This is 7.8 million more than the global number in
2007. The youth unemployment rate increased from 11.9 percent in 2007 to
13.0 percent in 2009.
It adds that these trends will have “significant consequences for
young people as upcoming cohorts of new entrants join the ranks of the
already unemployed” and warns of the “risk of a crisis legacy of a ‘lost
generation’ comprised of young people who have dropped out of the labour
market, having lost all hope of being able to work for a decent living”.
According to the ILO projections, the global youth unemployment rate
is expected to continue its increase through 2010, to 13.1 percent,
followed by a moderate decline to 12.7 percent in 2011.
The report also points out that the unemployment rates of youth have
proven to be more sensitive to the crisis than the rates of adults and
that the recovery of the job market for young men and women is likely to
lag behind that of adults.
The report indicates that in developed and some emerging economies,
the crisis impact on youth is felt mainly in terms of rising
unemployment and the social hazards associated with discouragement and
prolonged inactivity.
The ILO report points out that in developing economies, where 90
percent of young people live, youth are more vulnerable to
underemployment and poverty. According to the report, in the lower
income countries, the impact of the crisis is felt more in shorter hours
and reduced wages for the few who maintain wage and salaried employment
and in rising vulnerable employment in an ‘increasingly crowded’
informal economy.
The report estimates that 152 million young people, or about 28
percent of all the young workers in the world, worked but remained in
extreme poverty in households surviving on less than US $1.25 per person
per day in 2008.
“In developing countries, crisis pervades the daily life of the
poor”, said ILO Director-General Juan Somavia. “The effects of the
economic and financial crisis threaten to exacerbate the pre-existing
decent work deficits among youth.
The result is that the number of young people stuck in working
poverty grows and the cycle of working poverty persists through at least
another generation.”
The ILO report explains how unemployment, underemployment and
discouragement can have a long-term negative impact on young people,
compromising their future employment prospects. The study also
highlights the cost of idleness among youth, saying “societies lose
their investment in education. Governments fail to receive contributions
to social security systems and are forced to increase spending on
remedial services”.
“Young people are the drivers of economic development,” Somavia said.
“Foregoing this potential is an economic waste and can undermine social
stability.
The crisis is an opportunity to re-assess strategies for addressing
the serious disadvantages that young people face as they enter the
labour market. It is important to focus on comprehensive and integrated
strategies that combine education and training policies with targeted
employment policies for youth.”
“Today the UN is launching the International Year of Youth. Through
this year’s themes of dialogue and mutual understanding, we will be
better placed to shape viable policies that respond to the need and
aspirations of young people for decent work,” he added.
ILO
Key findings in youth labour market trends at global level
Between 2007 and 2009, youth unemployment increased by 7.8 million
(1.1 million in 2007/08 and 6.7 million in 2008/09). In comparison, over
the course of the 10-year period prior to the current crisis (1996/97 to
2006/07), the number of unemployed youth increased, on average, by
191,000 per year.
* The global youth unemployment rate rose from 11.9 to 13.0 percent
between 2007 and 2009. Between 2008 and 2009, the rate increased by one
percentage point, marking the largest annual change over the 20 years of
available global estimates and reversing the pre-crisis trend of
declining youth unemployment rates since 2002.
Between 2008 and 2009, the number of unemployed youth increased by
9.0 percent, compared to a 14.6 percent increase in the number of
unemployed adults.
In terms of unemployment rates, however, the impact on youth has
proven to be greater than that of adults. The youth rate increased by
1.0 percentage point compared to 0.5 points for the adult rate over
2008/09. In 2008 young people accounted for 24 percent of the world’s
working poor, versus 18.1 per cent of total global employment.
Young women have more difficulty than young men in finding work.
The female youth unemployment rate in 2009 stood at 13.2 percent
compared to the male rate of 12.9 per cent (a gap of 0.3 percentage
point, the same gender gap seen in 2007). The projections show a longer
expected recovery for youth compared to adults. Youth unemployment
numbers and rates are expected to decline only in 2011.
The ILO forecasts a continued increase in global youth unemployment
to an all-time high of 81.2 million and a rate of 13.1 percent in 2010.
In the following year, the number of unemployed youth is projected to
decline to 78.5 million with a 12.7 percent rate. Meanwhile, the adult
rate is expected to peak in 2009 at 4.9 percent and then decline by 0.1
percentage points in both 2010 and 2011 (to 4.8 and 4.7 percent,
respectively).
Regional trends
Youth unemployment rates increased by 4.6 percentage points in
Developed Economies and the European Union between 2008 and 2009 and by
3.5 points in Central & South-Eastern Europe (non-EU) & CIS. These are
the largest annual increases in youth unemployment rates ever recorded
in any region.
The youth unemployment rate of 17.7 percent in 2009 in the Developed
Economies & European Union is the highest the region has seen since
regional estimates have been available (since 1991).
In most regions, young women continued to be the hardest hit by
unemployment.
Only in the Developed Economies & European Union were young males
harder hit; the increase in the male youth unemployment rate between
2007 and 2009 was 6.8 percentage points compared to 3.9 points for young
women.
In some countries, including Spain and the United Kingdom, there was
an increase in inactivity among youth in the crisis years. This implies
an increase in discouragement, whereby growing unemployment has led some
young people to give up the job search.
In developing economies, the crisis adds to the ranks of vulnerable
employment and informal sector employment.
There is supporting evidence of such an increase in Latin America
where between 2008 and 2009 the number of own-account workers increased
by 1.7 percent and the number of contributing family workers by 3.8
percent.
The region also experienced an increase in the share of teenagers
engaged in informal sector employment during the crisis.
For almost all regions, slight improvements are forecast as compared
with the peak unemployment years (2010 in most cases).
Only in the Middle East and North Africa are youth unemployment rates
expected to continue on an upward path in 2011.
The largest decrease (one percentage point) in youth unemployment
rates is expected for Central & South-Eastern Europe (non-EU) & CIS. The
projected 2011 rate in the Developed Economies & European Union would
represent a 0.9 percentage point decrease from the previous year.
However, the projected rate of 18.2 percent would still be higher
than was ever seen in the pre-crisis period (1991-2007). |