Was poverty the cause of terrorism in SL?

Rohantha N A Athukorala

The first task I was confronted with at the Economic Division of the Government Peace Secretariat was to handle a false propaganda report released globally by the LTTE Peace Secretariat on March 28, 2007. The news that flashed in all media around the world was ‘Economic blockade of the Vanni, all items including basic food items banned. Thousands in Vanni effected’.

The desk research revealed that this information was totally false as 937 metric tonnes of food had been delivered in a four month duration and from a per capita consumption point of view, it was way above the national average on a Sri Lankan basket of goods.

An LTTE child soldier

In fact, there was a ‘Wholesale distributorship, that was set up in Kilinochchi by the Government which ensured that the basic rations were available for the people of Vanni on a continuous basis.

Contact was made with the head of the wholesale centre which was under the LTTE administration and over time a close rapport developed as he was surprised that I could converse in Tamil.

The truth unfolded over time that the LTTE was very good in soliciting global sympathy with in-accurate information.

We then took a decision that the best way to get credibility to whatever we report globally, was to involve the private sector.

After many consultations the private sector chambers was able to generate a bottom up forecast from the Kilinochchi Chambers, based on the actual number of civilians living in the Vanni.

However we later realized that this number had to be cleared by the LTTE hierarchy and it was sure to include the food required for the LTTE cadres as well.

After doing many cross checks and all clearances received from the security forces that included the Defence Ministry, we shipped another 3000 metric tonnes of basic food items to the Vanni so that there was a three months stock cover for the people of Vanni.

Then in a most carefully architectured multi-pronged communication bursts targeting all web sites that were globally linked to Sri Lankan diaspora, foreign missions, diaspora data bases, government web sites linked search engines and global media we were able to silence the LTTE propaganda unit totally.

We knew we had outsmarted the LTTE this time around. In fact there was never a report after that on any inaccurate data on the economy in the Vanni.

To cap it, I was able to push the head of the Kilinochchi wholesale centre to publish in the Vanni newspapers the maximum retail prices on the goods that were sent, so that we do not allow any profit taking that can be used to purchase any weapons to be used against our security forces.

For confirmation we got down a copy of the Ealanatham paper- a Kilinochchi based daily newspaper that we once again publicized globally that sealed the story on the alleged food embargo news lead.

But the LTTE, being one of the most ruthless terror organizations of the world then attacked a Jordanian Merchant Vessel MV Farah III off the coasts off Mullaitivu and raided almost twelve thousand metric tonnes of rice so that it does not rely us to provide the basic essentials.

Later on we staged a massive Industrial Exhibition during the height of terrorist activity in Jaffna, with 168 private sector companies travelling up to Jaffna that attracted over a 304,000 people from the peninsula. This set the stage for the South to connect with the North.

With many private sector business delegation visits and chamber meetings by the end of first quarter 2009 we had over 142 companies either appointing an agent in Jaffna for business or setting up a branch so that the cash rich Jaffna population can be reached.

This blocked the LTTE creating economic issues during the aggressive ground operations of the troops in Kilinochchi and Mullaitivu and I guess this is where Sri Lanka became one in my view.

Cause of terrorism?

After the final battle was won by the security forces and the country liberated from the LTTE after almost thirty years, I began to reflect on what could have been the causes of terrorism in Sri Lanka.

Research revealed that Sri Lanka has been grappling with the issue of poverty for decades and I was very convinced that this was correlated to the birth of terrorism in our country.

In fact, I shared this thought at the first Anti-Terrorism Conference that we staged in Sri Lanka post war when the greats of anti-terrorism came and addressed us.

Apparently, successive governments have been focusing on the top line where Sri Lanka has a pretty picture to boast.

Way back in 1996 it had been reported that the overall poverty indicator stood at 24.3% whilst in 2002 it moved down to a 19.2 percent and in 2007 it went down to magical mark of 15.2 percent and then it came down to a magical 12 percent which kept getting flashed in different media.

I remember even I boasted about this performance when I addressed the Asian Development Bank’s poverty conference in Manila and it made many global leaders look up to Sri Lanka as this performance was exemplary given that Sri Lanka was at war for almost thirty years.

In fact, I visioned that Sri Lanka would have been at a zero poverty if not for the conflict which I am sure will become a reality in the next years to come.

However, digging deeper I un-earthed the reality. As per the 2003/2004 Socio Economic Indicators the data was staggering. Access to pipe-borne water in the Northern Province was only 3.1 percent whilst in the East it records a 17.4 percent.

The National average stood at high a 30.8 percent. Even though we cannot be proud of the National Performance, the fact remains that for a majority of people who live in North East, life is not as comfortable as the people in the neigh bouring regions. The non access to toilets which is a stronger indicator on the quality of life of a household, the Northern region registered a 14.4 percent and the East a staggering at 29.2 percent whilst the National average stood at a respectable 5.6 percent which gives us an idea of the disparity that exists at a regional level even though the top line reflects a healthy situation.

Even though there has been not much studies done on the implications of the social indicators on terrorism the insight is that these factors create social tension that in turn can lead to conflicts and then leading extreme behaviour like terrorism was my hypothesis. I guess the ‘Lessons Learned and Reconciliation Commission’ must deliberate and make this a universally accepted theory post the deliberations that are to happen in Kilinochchi later this week.

If we move on to indicators which are related to income and health in the North East, one can develop associations on the root causes of terrorism further as its directly linked to livelihood.

As per the labour force survey of 2002 the labour force participation number is at 50.3 percent nationally whilst in the North it drops to 33.8 percent and a 40.3 percent in the East which can directly be reflective to the health gaps in these regions.

On the area of health 46 percent of the children below five years of age in the North East are underweight compared to the 29 percent of the rest of the country.

The percentage of babies born underweight in the country is 18 percent but the reality is that in the North East it is as high as 26 percent.

These figures are worse in the districts like Batticaloa and Vavuniya, where one-half of the children are under weight.

An insight that one can just imagine the tension that exist within a family in comparison to ones relations in the other parts of the country with this data once it gets exposed.

A typical family in such a state of might can be easily coaxed to extreme behaviour based on strong ideological principles that can finally result in making of a terrorist is my view and this is actually what happened in Sri Lanka.

The question is, will we allow this to happen again in our country.

Poverty -terrorism link?

Even though there are counter arguments that countries that have an intermediate range of rights experience a greater risk of terrorism, there are no conclusive studies that have been done if its nurture of nature that fosters terrorism in a country.

Michael K Moore the former World Trade Organization head once said ‘Poverty in all forms is the greatest single threat to Peace, Security, Democracy, Human Rights and the Environment’ which to my mind is an indication of the possible relationships that can exit.

However, Alberto Abadie public policy professor at Harvard University’s Kennedy School of Government says development aid is important but it is not clear that it is an effective tool for reducing terrorism, at least not in the short run.

He says more attention should be given to political freedom because it correlates with terrorism more, but in a complicated way’ which is an interesting point of view given the recent focus we see in Sri Lanka on language policy and human rights.

Poor connectivity - isolation

Research also reveals that isolation is the prime cause of un-socialized behaviour. If we analyze the relevant indicators in Sri Lanka like access to electricity, access to communication the North and East once again emerges as a deprived region.

The connectivity through mobile and land phones are at a low ebb of 10 percent in the North and 15 percent in the East as per the 2003/4 census. Even though the penetration of electricity as at a high 64 percent of the households in the North East, the insight is that in remote areas of Kilinochchi, Mannar and Mullaitivu the non availability of power was at a dizzy high of 90 percent at one time.

This can give us an idea of the deprivation and isolation that exits and the opportunity for idolism to be indoctrinated which is what actually happened.

In-equality issue

From the above data, it is clear that successive policy makers have over time continuously focused on the investments which give the better return to GDP and the result is the neglect of low resource, geographical areas like Moneragala, Badulla and the estate sector.

In fact, the recent Household and Expenditure Survey 2007 reports that the poverty head count in the estate sector has increased which to my mind is a very dangerous situation from a deprivation point of view.

Regionally, this issue is glaring into our face with a 50 percent odd contribution that is generated by the Western Province to the national GDP whilst the North East contributing a mere 7 percent.

A girl from Kilinochchi reminisces her future

The growth of the service sector that has resulted in a neglect of the agricultural sector are also indications of the households who getting into a poverty trap given that Sri Lanka is essentially an agriculture driven economy from geographic point of view.

The result of this investment strategy is what we see in Sri Lanka now where we are facing severe challenges in the tea, paddy and coconut industry.

In fact the overall productivity in the agricultural sector has declined due to the age old agricultural practices yet being followed.

There are studies done globally that geography and climate tends to have a strong relationship with the terrorism by way providing a safe haven for training and hideouts for terrorism.

The geographic terrain in Mullaitivu is a classic example in Sri Lanka where the LTTE made this the training den for new recruits.

Global trade-link NE

Sometimes till disaster strikes on our door we never realize. But the challenge for policy makers and the senior private sector heads is to analyze the root causes, may be indicators like poverty and see what initiatives can be done to correct this.

US trade representative Robert Zoellick recently spoke on the liberalization of international trade and there by drive poverty down.

May be its time that the private sector absorbs such strategies and focus on areas like the estate sector.

The best case in point is the utilization of the FTA with India and reality being that performance is below ten percent for the last three years due to non trade barriers being erected at that end.

May be if this benefit is made a reality, Sri Lanka could drive towards the poverty head count in the estate sector coming down to the national average from the current twenty plus number.

Northern model - opportunity to deflect diaspora

In the last one and half years I have heard many a rhetoric of strategies that bring in peace to Sri Lanka other than the war victory.

I feel the best way is to ensure that we resettle all the IDPs by the end of the year and commence the construction of the 50,000 plus houses that the Indian Government has extended in grant funding.

This is the single minded big win that will silence the diaspora. This will require selection of the most vulnerable families and as a priority attending to them.

Thereafter with the support of the private sector we must develop the next generation fruit and vegetables as the climate and soil conditions are ideally suited for this sector to be developed.

There is no point of all the Development Banking opening up in the Vanni to attract the diaspora remittances if it cannot be utilized by the people for economic development initiatives of their own area.

The biggest issue being most of the people in the Vanni have their names in the CRIB due to some issue in the past that was outside their control. Currently the country’s lending is only a 1.7 trillion rupees whist we must target 3.5 trillion so that we can achieve a 8 percent plus GDP growth as mentioned by Treasury Secretary Dr P B Jayasundera.

If this is done there can be improvement on the connectivity of the villages and provide better access to telecommunication so that rapidly, the agricultural and animal husbandry sectors can be developed to improve the livelihood opportunities.

The BOI must be commended for developing a clear strategy in the dairy industry with the setting up of a task force for the country that I am also involved in. I guess the challenge is making sure that these industries help the IDPs increase their livelihood.

May we need to also develop an industrial estate dedicated to the SMIs in the Vanni just like the rest of the country.

Given that global donor funding into Sri Lanka has come down by almost 88 percent in the first half of 2010 and the FDIs also dropping by 18 percent during the same period, I guess the only way out to stabilize the situation in the North is by a private- public partnership.

The fact remains is that Sri Lanka cannot afford a repetition of the thirty year old war that has shaved off around 200 billion dollars with the tourism industry alone losing 6000 million rupees.

There are many other theories in this analysis if poverty is the cause of terrorism. Some arguments are that material conditions do not drive poverty but it is a person’s beliefs and values.

However other studies reveal that even a terrorist sleeps at night and it is the fundamentals that drive extreme behaviour.

Russell Ackoff an emeritus professor at Wharton School of Business designed to promote private businesses role in combating terrorism say ‘The basic problem that spurs terrorism is mis distribution of wealth within a country.

The challenge is that we don’t understand how to close that gap that makes matters worse. Post the 9/11 attack in the US politicians and policy experts drew a quick correlation between Terrorism and Poverty. Much of the existing academic literature state that poverty drives conflicts and this can lead terrorism with the administrative system in play. But our task at hand is not to debate which school of thought is correct but identifying the golden opportunity at hand and chasing after this with passion and purpose to being the people of Vanni connect to the Economy of Sri Lanka.