Will Red Shirts’ ‘true blood’ change Thai political stalemate?

Thailand’s Red Shirts movement drew the world’s attention again when their leader said they will splash one million cc blood 1,000 litres, that is around the Government House Tuesday. The blood is drawn from the massive protesters who are staging a rally in Bangkok.

After Veera Muskiapong, one of the Red Shirts leaders, read an ultimatum Sunday demanding a House dissolution within 24 hours and after Prime Minister Abhisit Vejjajiva firmly rejected the ultimatum the next day, the anti-government movement hope the “ true blood” will help to topple the administration that they claim was not legitimately elected.

A GAME OF “WHO BLINKS FIRST”

Monday, the second day of the Red Shirts’ “one million people rally”, Bangkok saw an estimated number of 50,000 red-clad protesters rallying outside Prime Minister’s command center, situated in a heavily guarded army base.

The show of force in a relatively peaceful demonstration, as expected, failed to pressure the Thai government to give in. Abhisit, flanked by his coalition partners, rejected the demand to dissolve the Parliament.

The Red Shirts comprise of rural people mainly from the North and Northeastern part of Thailand, a stronghold of former Prime Minister Thaksin Shinawatra and other activists who oppose the last military coup in 2006 that ousted Thaksin. They are generally grouped under the leadership of United Front for Democracy against Dictatorship (UDD).

The high-profiled “one million people rally” in Bangkok was mobilized by UDD after the court ruling that confiscated a major part of Thaksin’s 2.2-billion-U.S.-dollar wealth for corruption. However, UDD was unable to marshal the required numbers.

The Government agency estimated only about 50,000 protesters while the actual figures could be around 120,000 at most. Analysts think that without the critical mass, the Red Shirt movement is not expected to achieve any quick outcome in their political demands.

As an article on The Nation puts it, this is a game of “who blinks first”, as both sides hate to be seen as the one who incite the violence or conflict.

If the Red Shirts persist to attain their desirable objective quickly, however, as they are constrained by a lack of financial support for a prolonged rally, the situation may dangerously escalate into a violence phase, provoked by some rogue elements and hardliners.

As witnessed, Monday was not without violence as two soldiers were injured when M79 grenades were fired into the compound of another military camp. The incident highlighted the potential risk of escalating into an explosive crisis similar to last year’s near- anarchical situation.

The prime objective of the Red Shirts movement is to force a House dissolution and an early election so that the Thaksin’s proxies have the chance to return to power. They attempt to achieve the goal through street pressure and hope to alter the balance of power in the parliament.

The key challenge is to keep the current rally going on as the government stood their ground. However, the Red Shirts movement, due to an insufficient number of masses, a lack of clear strategy, and a display of hesitation to turn up the pressure as they are afraid of making similar mistake as in last year’s violence protest that lost the support of majority silent population in the capital did not strengthen themselves but the government.

Furthermore, the timing is not so much favorable for the Red Shirts to stage a anti-government rally as Thailand’s economy is improving in line with the recovery of the global economy. Unlike last year, many people in Bangkok are not joining this Red Shirts rally because for them there is no pressing reason to force a change in regime.

As such, the street protest is not expected to yield the level of pressure that can trigger the government to lose its temper.

POLITICAL SCENARIO: PROLONGED IMPASSE

Although having faced many challenges since he came into office more than a year ago, Prime Minister Abhisit continued to enjoy the backing of the ruling class, including the elites.

The military also throws their weight behind the loosely-bind coalition government. Under the Internal Security Act, which was invoked prior to the mass protest, the Army mobilized forces from 1st, 2nd and 3rd Army to protect key personnel and installation in the capital.

It is a completely different position as seen during previous Samak and Somchai’s administrations, which, before being dissolved, used to undergo constant protests by the anti-Thaksin movement Yellow Shirts.

Prime Minister Abhisit also has the support of Thailand’s mainstream media that carry the pro-government tune and propaganda.

As such, the center of gravity of the government remains in position.

A shift in balance of power in the parliament, a desired outcome of the Red Shirts, can only take place when the minor coalition parties decided to abandon the Democrat for self-serving interest. According to Guo Jinsheng, a political & security analyst based in Bangkok, this scenario is not a remote possibility although at this juncture, it seems that the minor political parties in the coalition continue to stand by the Democrat.

As the government needs to call for election, at the latest by the end 2011, the political parties and interest groups are carefully watching the political development before they take sides to fulfill their own purposes. That’s why Thaksin, during the video link last night to the rally, urged the minor political parties to abandon the Democrat party or prepare to lose the next election.

Many political observers believed that intense back-room trading and negotiation is taking place.

In conclusion, a prolonged stalemate will continue in Thailand’ s political landscape in the near term until such time Thai political power groups can co-exist and adhere to an acceptable political system.

Xinhua