Beyond Copenhagen
Stephen Hale
Why our leaders are failing us and why,
collectively, we now need a far broader and deeper global movement for
change
Soon after I left my role as an adviser to the UK government in 2005,
I was interrupted whilst speaking on the need for new climate-change
policies. “If you advocated these things in government for four years,
how come none of them happened?”It was a question that deserves a
substantive answer. I have been working to secure action on climate
change for over ten years, and since 2005 has been director of Green
Alliance. Much of it has been hugely enjoyable. There have been many
successes along the way. But the stark truth is that we’re failing. The
collective efforts of all those working on climate change have so far
delivered far less than the crisis demands.
There is currently no real prospect of action at the necessary scale
and speed.
To give ourselves a high probability of limiting average global
temperature rise to 2ºC, global emissions must peak and decline in the
next ten years. Yet the most?2 recent IPCC (Intergovernmental Panel on
Climate Change) projections predict an increase in global emissions of
25-90% between 2000 and 2030. Climate change poses a profound threat to
the well-being of our planet and humanity.
To succeed in the struggle against climate change, we must build a
movement for change that our political leaders cannot ignore.
The current debate on why we are failing is essentially about
allocating blame. Pressure groups blame politicians for not introducing
the policies needed to reduce emissions. Politicians justify their
inaction by citing the lack of public support for those policies. In the
margins of this exchange, most businesses quietly blame both sides.
The power to avert runaway climate change is held first and foremost
by governments. This is a collective problem that will only be solved
with decisive action by governments, who can use tax, regulation and
spending to give businesses and individuals the incentives and
opportunities they need to act.
But climate change is also an issue of personal responsibility. Each
of us chooses in our homes, at work and in the choice of our holidays
whether to live in a way that is compatible with the climate crisis. Far
too few people currently choose to do so. But it is high time we moved
beyond this blame game. The attitudes and actions of politicians and the
public are deeply interlinked. Governments shape personal action. They
can opt for renewable energy, or to sustain the fossil-fuel economy.
They can feed the car culture, or make public transport the cheap choice
for us all.
But the public, ultimately, determines the paths our leaders choose.
The most critical role for individuals is not their behaviour, but their
influence on governments. The UN Summit in Copenhagen needs to be seen
in that context. The media, politicians and campaigners all described it
as the defining moment in the struggle against climate change. But don’t
believe the hype.
An ambitious and effective global agreement will simply make success
possible. The struggle to avert catastrophic climate change will be
determined by the actions of national governments over the next five to
ten years. The history of the Kyoto Protocol demonstrates that the real
challenge is implementation, not negotiation.
There is much that our leaders could do right now, of course. Some,
notably Ed Miliband, show a much greater willingness to act. But I know
from my own experience that there are deep structural reasons why
governments do not deliver. Climate change is perhaps the most complex
policy challenge national governments have ever faced. It demands action
across the silos of government, and at global, national, regional and
local level. It must provide opportunities and incentives for action by
businesses, communities and individuals. This action must be secured
despite the lobbying of vested interests, and the inertia of government.
The commitment of presidents, prime ministers and their ministers of
finance will be critical to this. But our leaders will not acquire this
commitment or overcome these vested interests and inertia without far
greater demand from below. Levels of public concern, behaviour and above
all demand for political action are currently too weak to overcome these
obstacles.
This is not a counsel of despair. For many years, climate change was
an issue highlighted by environmental groups. But this has changed
rapidly recently. There has been an explosion of concern and action over
the past two years among faith leaders, development groups, trade unions
and grassroots initiatives such as Transition towns.
But we still need a far broader and deeper movement for change.
Climate change is not ‘just’ an environmental issue. It profoundly
threatens many other causes that others hold dear, from security to
poverty, from community cohesion to health. New initiatives are under
way among groups concerned with all of these issues, to articulate these
links and bring them to public attention. Initiatives like this are
critical to the prospects for political action on climate change.
The ‘third sector’ holds the key to success in the struggle against
climate change. It is made up of the community groups, national
membership organizations, trade unions, faith communities, social
enterprises and co-operatives that provide people with collective
opportunities to act. The third sector can provide the leadership we
need to transform the politics of climate change and make it the primary
issue of public concern. It can and must do so in four ways:First, by
mobilising a huge diverse network of groups concerned with issues from
development and security to housing and health. Secondly, community and
local leadership will enable people to come together to change their
lifestyles and demand political action, as Transition towns and
low-carbon villages have done. Thirdly, led by the environmental
movement, it can create a highly visible movement of people living
low-carbon lifestyles and setting an example to others.
This could be brought together by a voluntary national personal
carbon-trading scheme. Finally, international mobilisation could
persuade national leaders to act consistently and ambitiously, as
pressure groups make consistent and compelling demands for national
action.
The writer is Director of Green Alliance. He is the author of The New
Politics of Climate Change
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