EU's long shot at regime change in Sri Lanka

The election to the Southern Provincial Council is getting under way and it appears the contest is more within the UPFA than with the ruling coalition and those who oppose it. On whatever side of the political divide, there was considerable interest among the candidates running for election under the PR plus iniquitous and highly divisive 'Manapey' system of preferential choice that we have, of the much talked of planetary change last Wednesday; when Saturn was supposed to change positions in the Zodiac, to coincide with that rare numerical occurrence of single repetitive number in a date that took place - 09/09/09.

Extra human powers

The important role that astrology and the belief in planetary and other extra human powers, be they deities or demons, play in our politics was seen on that day, with so many of the candidates for the coming SPC polls and those thinking of polls further ahead too, participating in a whole range of rituals and below the line practices in faith and desperation, to ensure that the shift of Saturn to whatever other house it was moving to, would not harm their political ambitions in any way, but would definitely harm such expectations of their rivals.

One candidate who is drawing much interest and more controversy in the SPC polls used the triple nine of that date to launch her campaign, taking full advantage of the fact that her number for the Manapey was 9. Another candidate did even better in terms of numeral belief by launching his campaign with a temple ritual sharp at 09 min 09 secs on the morning of 09/09/09, which was given big TV coverage by a friendly channel. Apart from the publicity angle of such gimmicks, the activities of most of our politicians last Wednesday and the days leading up to it, raise many questions of how advanced we really are as a society, when so much attention is paid to a supposed planetary change and the rare recurrence of a single digit in a date, as having such power over the entire political process in the country.

The new pressures being brought on Sri Lanka especially by the West also seem to be working in sync with the mindset of those who believe in the powers of the planets to bring about major political change in the country. We know that the West is not immune from belief in astrology, which is not any more the preserve of the East or the Orient.

There are strong indications that end October 2009 is the time when the EU will come out with its strongest statement on the issue of GSP+, which is now gaining increased interest among all sections interested the progress of the Sri Lankan economy in the post war phase.

SPC elections

The strategy of the EU seems to be to give a warning to Sri Lanka that will work in favour of the opponents of the present Government and lead to considerable disadvantage to it in the two major elections ahead.

With the SPC elections out of the political scene, what the EU's hard line strategists, prompted by our own belief in the powers of the planets or not, seem to be looking at are the Presidential Poll that is now accepted will take place early next year and the General Election that must follow soon after, with the life of the present Parliament ending by April next year.

Unbeatable position

It appears that those in the EU who are pressing for the tougher line on GSP+ are thinking of diminishing the majority of President Mahinda Rajapaksa, who is clearly seen as being in an unbeatable position, whatever the proponents of a common opposition candidate may do. Such a development, they believe would impact on the parliamentary polls, where in such a scenario the Government may not get the majority it expects, with the impact of the dire warnings of GSP+ being removed becoming closer to reality and a good slogan for the opposition, that is trying hard to find a suitable slogan that can make it even mildly credible today.

What the EU seems to be planning is a soft move towards regime change in Sri Lanka, to blunt the efforts of the Government for meaningful change, through an unstable Parliament with the same President in office. The work of Channel 4 News and the continued barrage of attacks on unreal grounds by organizations such as Human Rights Watch, Amnesty International and the huge fuss that is being made over the verdict and sentence in the J. Tissainayagam case in the High Court, all appear to be working in sync with a strategy that is taking aim at the key centres of the Government itself.

To all serious studies there is hardly any serious interest in the EU and the organizations backing its current aggressive move about the actual improvement of Human Rights in Sri Lanka, or the better demonstration of the Rule of Law.

This is obvious when one considers the flak that is being directed at Sri Lanka over the Tissainayagam verdict, which was the best possible example of the functioning of the Rule of Law. However, it is necessary that proper stock is taken of this situation and the responses of Sri Lanka take serious note of this strategy of the EU and its allies, that are supportive of the aims of the LTTE more than the safeguarding of Human Rights or democracy in Sri Lanka.

Rival turfs

It is necessary at this stage to take a serious look at how the various agencies of the Government that have been working on the GSP+ issue have functioned so far and take appropriate remedial action to overcome any shortcomings in their actions. It is time the GSP+ issue was taken away from any rival turfs within the administration, that may be working at cross-purposes, although not by design and bring about a clear, coherent and singular response from the Government. If there are any pledges that Sri Lanka has made to the EU, which have not yet been carried out, this is not the time for any further delay.

As it is, Sri Lanka has a very good case for the continuance of GSP+, which now appears to be almost an unfortunate benefit that we obtained in the post Tsunami period; when a robust and highly competitive garment industry that functioned without any such concessions, was pushed into dependence on the assistance that came by way of GSP+.

It is necessary that we must move ahead and away from GSP+, which in any event has a short span of life left. Yet, it is necessary that all required action is taken to prevent the moves by the hardliners in the EU, who seek to give new strength to an opposition that is rejected by the people here, in keeping with the geo-political strategies of the West and the EU and ensure that the sovereignty of our nation and the freedom of our people that were restored with the defeat of the LTTE, is not threatened through this sinister attempt at a soft push towards regime change.

It is not a situation where we lack the talent and skills to face up to this challenge. Our Ambassador in Brussels and key officers led by the Attorney General are doing much by way of damage control in this regard. It is time to clear some of the clogged lines of communication and work towards a very clear response to the EU, which removes the questions being asked from us and not from the US and the UK and many other preachers of democracy about how good their own houses are with regard to Human Rights and the adherence to international conventions that they have signed.

Of course Sri Lanka is small and does not have the economic and international political clout they have and do not depend on EU subsidies for exports. Yet, this is the very reason we should work harder and with a much clearer view, to prevent being victims of the strategy of the EU and its allies that have questionable claims to be the protectors of Human Rights, the Rule of Law and Democracy in Sri Lanka through the bloody thirty years that have just ended here.

This is not the time to let the movement of planets dictate political strategy or give a fillip to the emerging plans of regime change being worked out through GSP+.