August 30 election:

Japan set for change

JAPAN: Japan’s main opposition Democratic Party is seen having a good chance of winning an Aug. 30 election, a victory that would end more than five decades of almost unbroken rule by the conservative Liberal Democratic Party (LDP).

A solid win for the opposition Democratic Party in the vote for parliament’s powerful lower house would raise the chances of breaking policy deadlock as Japan shakes off a recession. An inconclusive outcome, however, could spark a tug-of-war in which big parties woo members of small parties and independents to try to form a coalition.

Following are possible outcomes of the election for the 480 lower house seats.

The opposition Democratic Party may win the election by a landslide, ousting the LDP from power for only the second time in its 54-year history. One newspaper survey showed the Democrats could win 300 of 480 seats in the lower house.

A solid victory for the Democrats would end a deadlock in parliament, where they and their allies have controlled the less powerful upper chamber since 2007. Financial markets would welcome the prospect of smoother policy-making as Japan tries to revive its economy and deal with new challenges such as those posed by its shrinking, fast-ageing population.

Some analysts worry, however, about the novice Democrats’ ability to govern and say the party’s ambitious spending plans could inflate already sky-high public debt and push up long-term interest rates.

Tokyo, Thursday, Reuters