PARALLEL Perspectives

Looking for "George" gives vital clue to stopping the flu

Swine flu, the most searched online topic in the US last week alerted over 10 million internet users on methods to fight the epidemic. North Western University in Illinois, Chicago, has come up with a novel method to track down the flu virus via the dollar bill-that has George Washington's face on it-to find out how the virus spreads from hand to hand with over 500 million dollar bills reportedly in circulation. Looking for George is one sure-fire method to track the flu.

Many scientists are bracing themselves for the possible imminent onset of an influenza outbreak. Though less intense than the much feared H5N1 avian flu virus that had spread across Asia, Europe and Africa since 2003, the new H1N1 strain of swine flu sent researchers scrambling to get a better handle on the evolution and spread of the new virus.

The internet became an immediate conduit to get everyone's attention. Internet users received on an average, three emails each from family members, friends and Government agencies warning about the flu. Do not panic, things are being studied and will be controlled. That is the message. Millions received emails about flu packs on what to and not to do-clean your hands, avoid travel to suspected flu areas and look for symptoms. Vice President Joe Biden was in hot waters telling people not to travel in air planes much to the chagrin of the travel industry.

Damage control immediately appeared on the computer screens as the Government explained that it was only a general warning to cut down unnecessary trips. Text messaging, use of Twitter, the latest craze about sending messages and the logging on to blog sites dominated all these efforts.

Said one late night comedy host on TV: the Internet allows us to take the temperature of the Nation now. Everyone is a little hotter but nothing to worry yet. The routine warnings of flu trends are being given by all search engines like Google, Yahoo, Internet Explorer, Wikipedia and AOL. It was meant to give timely warning about outbreaks. These are faster than what the Government bulletins usually are. Flu is still confined mainly to Texas, New York and California.

North Western University hopes to go beyond the alarm bell of the internet and assemble data to gauge the rate of onset of the flu virus. The usual flu season in the Sates affects senior citizens and those with physical ailments badly. Few thousands die of the flu every year. It is now possible to predict the seasonal outbreaks with a great degree of certainty. This could save lives as being able to know when the season peaks is vital to getting the treatment in time.

It is possible to collect both hospital records and also the trends seen in internet channels. All these will mean assembling reams of data. The prestigious Nature magazine recently spoke of the early detection and rapid response techniques that had improved immensely. Internet's corroborative sampling methods have paid dividends in the area.

That has complemented the traditional surveillance systems. The US Center for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) and the European Influenza Surveillance Scheme (EISS), relied on many types of data for detection of viruses. These can be strengthened thanks to internet's large bank of interested people trying to talk about it in a meaningful manner.

It is now a common practice to monitor indirect signals of influenza activity by tracking the calls to telephone triage advice lines and over-the-counter drug sales. Nearly 10 million American adults search the web for information about specific diseases or medical problems each year. This is a great source of data for predicting the onset of virally borne diseases.

Internet also could give regional variations in the spread of flu and thus concentrate on areas where quick action is needed fast. The increased interest arising out of the internet use is a new paradigm that would bring disease control techniques closer to the best scientific method available so far among those studying this topic.

Looking for George in all the right places will go a long way towards humanity's new approach to fighting pandemics. Online "noise,' or people browsing the web for a chat on a common topic has come to say with us for good. Scientists can analyze the level of that noise and know what immediate action to take. Social networking sites will be an important tool for public health officials.