PC Polls - catalyst for a faster path to progress

Dr. Jayatissa DE COSTA

Provincial Council elections in the North Central and Sabaragamuwa Provinces are round the corner giving people in these provinces another opportunity at exercising their franchise to elect an administration of their choice.

In addition it would also give an opportunity to the Government to test its popularity specially with regard to its war against terror and ongoing development efforts.

People in the North Central and the Sabaragamuwa provinces are also making a significant contribution to national production and projects such as Vagaa Sangramaya titled Api Wawamu Rata Nagamu have been successfully implemented in these provinces.

A majority in these two provinces are considered to be career farmers. The Government’s endeavour to uplift the community has seen them enjoying a 96 per cent subsidy on fertiliser.

Many infrastructure development projects have been launched in addition to improving the road network under the Maganeguma.

To boost agriculture, mega irrigation projects such as Moragahakanda have been launched. Power generation projects such as the Kerawalapitiya and Norochcholai power plants were launched to provide an uninterrupted power supply to promote the industrial sector. Steps have also been taken to protect local farmers as well as producers in the industrial sector.

Over the past two-and-a-half years, the Government has taken many meaningful steps to protect local farmers. Every encouragement has been rendered to local producers and the domestic industrial sector. Many concessions have been granted to local producers and consumers have been encouraged to purchase local products.

UPFA Sabaragamuwa Chief Ministerial candidate Maheepala Herath

UPFA NCP Chief Ministerial candidate Berty Premalal Dissanayake with Prime Minister Ratnasiri Wickramanayaka

Whether these efforts would be enough to convince the voters to re-elect the UPFA to carry forward the progress or whether they clamour for a change is yet to be seen which would be revealed on August 23.

All these factors would be considered by voters in Sabaragamuwa and North Central, who mainly represent the farming community, when they cast their votes on Saturday.

Their decision no doubt would be a sign of things to unfold in the political arena of this country in the near future and would have a significant impact on the composition of power in future elections.

Decentralisation of power

One of the underlying factors of the present problem in Sri Lanka has been the inability to devolve power in a pragmatic manner. The administrative powers for long has been confined to Colombo.

The PCs came into being as a result of the 13th amendment which is part and parcel of the Constitution at present whether some people like it or not.

According to the historical judgement on the 13th amendment, it says that having PC Councils would not change the unitary character of the Constitution, so down the road we can take the PCs as a starting point for greater things ahead while preserving the Sri Lankan identity.

Thus the concluded PC elections for the East has to be considered as a landmark as PC’s were originally intended to be a first step in devolving power to the provinces as a means of addressing the ethnic conflict.

Thus the coming years would showcase the feasibility of the system with a possible PC election for the North too looming large in the not too distant future considering the present military gains and Government voicing it’s intents in no uncertain terms.

The word psephology emanates from a Greek word with the definition being the statistical analysis of elections, which is been used the world over to study trends regarding various elections.

Applying psephological trends in the Sri Lankan scenario is not an easy task because it is based on a district-wise set up under the proportional representation system. But a conclusion could be arrived at by studying past results closely and also applying other facts such as present political trends, calibre of candidates, contesting parties etc.

One salient factor in the Sri Lankan elections over the years has been that except to change Governments voters have a tendency to vote the ruling party into power in minor elections such as the local and PC polls. However, the upcoming PC polls has some unique features such as the timing of the election with many predicting that the Government is testing the waters for a national election in the near future.

The North central which combines Anuradhapura and Polonnaruwa is on the brink of another election to appoint representatives to the North Central Provincial Council which could act as a catalyst in altering its path of progress. Sabaragamuwa consisting of Kegalle and Ratnapura districts too has been a UPFA stronghold in recent years.

In four elections since 2004 the UPFA has not failed in a single election in Sabaragamuwa, in fact they have scored more than 50% in all those elections. A regular feature in Sri Lankan elections is the involvement of violence.

Past experiences

Based on past experiences along with the heightened competition, there is a danger of conflicts and disturbances. The present political system based on proportional representation has been a catalyst for such acts with candidates going for a no holds barred battle to secure a slot.

Any such violations should be deplored and should be considered as an impediment for a free and fair election.

Thus all contesting parties should recognise to uphold utmost discretion and act with discipline and tolerance contributing to strengthening democratic institutions and processes.

The ruling United People’s Freedom Alliance (UPFA) which had only 14 members against the Opposition represented by the United National Party (UNP) with 10 seats, Janatha Vimukthi Peramuna (JVP) with eight seats, and Sri Lanka Muslim Congress (SLMC) which had a combined total of 19 decided to dissolve the NCPC Council before its term.

The Government attributed lack of support by the combined opposition in development work and passing resolutions to this effect in the Provincial Council.

Thus, the NCPC led by Chief Minister Berty Premalal Dissanayake which was established on August 11, 2004 was dissolved paving way for a fresh mandate on August 23, 2008.

This time too the UPFA has nominated former Chief Minister Dissanayake with the backing of all its constituent parties while UNP has decided to field Major General(retd.) Janaka Perera

The opposition has been quick to pounce on UNP’s decision to put forward Major General (retd.) Janaka Perera as it’s Chief Ministerial nominee as he is not a person from the area and also had been residing abroad upto that time.

For years, the UNP organisation in Rajarata has not seen the best of days and the last time UNP won the NCP was in May 1993.

Thus for the past 15 years, the UNP has lost every election in the NCP including the General Election in 1994, the Presidential Election in 1994, the Provincial Council Election in 1999, the Presidential Election in 1999, General Election in 2000.

Since 2004 in four elections the UPFA has won the NCP very convincingly. It has polled more than 55 per cent (see chart) votes in all those elections. It is in such a context that Perera has accepted the challenge. It’s going to be a Herculean task to say the least.

One cannot ignore the JVP factor as well, but judging from the ongoing campaign the Leftist party is not expected to make much inroads mainly due to the recent infighting which has split the party down the middle.

This article is based on an interview with Dr. Costa by Rasika Somaratna.