Victory trend for UPFA in Eastern Poll

Dr. Jayatissa De Costa LLB.(Cey), LL.M (Lond), Ph.D (Sri Lanka), Attorney-at-Law

Interviewed by Rasika Somarathna

The Provincial Council Election in the Eastern Province slated to be held on May 10, is of both political and historical importance for Sri Lanka. Since the infamous election in 1988 and the subsequent dissolution of the Northeast Provincial Council under the leadership of Vardharaja Perumal in 1990, significant changes have taken place in the Eastern Province.

Thus the 2008 PC elections for the East is a unique one as it is the first occasion such a poll is going to take place for the de-merged East.

That too was due to a Court decision. As a result of a successful plea brought before the Supreme Court in 2006, the North and East which was united into a single province since 1988 was separated once again into two provinces.

The Supreme Court, which has the monopoly in interpreting the constitution, which is the basic Law of the land, in its wisdom has quiet correctly interpreted that the merger which was subjected to a referendum within one year (which did not take place) was a temporary arrangement.

Thus in 2006 the Supreme Court upheld the plea to de-merge the NorthEast into two separate provinces, paving way for the PC election which is to take place on Saturday. Emanating from the Supreme Court order, the Government took a decision to appoint a Governor while carrying a humanitarian mission to liberate parts of the East which was under the un-official control of the LTTE.

Thus after a successful mission they were able to liberate the entire province paving the way first for holding the Local Government polls and next the most important PC elections in the East.

In this backdrop the most important factor is not about which political party becomes victorious in the numbers game, but the belief which could be inculcated in the mind of the Eastern polity regarding political and the democratic process after twenty long years under suppression.

Thus the credit should go to the Government for its untiring efforts under trying conditions, first to liberate the Province of tiger tyranny and then paving way for the democratic process through elections and empowering people to elect their own representatives to carry forward the momentum.

Decentralisation of power

One of the underlying factors of the present problem in Sri Lanka has been the inability to devolve power in a pragmatic manner. The administrative powers for long has been confined to Colombo.

Thus the first Provincial Council election in the East could be used by Authorities as a model to propel the concept forward as the PCs were originally established to cater to the ethnic question.

The PCs came into being as a result of the 13th amendment which is part and parcel of the constitution at present whether some people like it or not. According to the historical judgement on the 13th amendment, it says that having PC Councils would not change the unitary character of the Constitution, so down the road we can take the PCs as a starting point for greater things ahead while preserving the Sri Lankan identity.

Election violence

A regular feature in Sri Lankan elections is the involvement of violence. Based on past experiences along with the heightened competition, there is a danger of conflicts and disturbances.

The present political system based on proportional representation has been a catalyst for such acts with candidates going for a no holds barred battle to secure a slot.

Any such violations should be deplored and should be considered as an impediment for a free and fair election. Thus all contesting parties should recognise to uphold utmost discretion and act with discipline and tolerance contributing to strengthening democratic institutions and processes.

There are two types of violations illegal and corrupt practices. Illegal practices such as pasting posters, minor scuffles etc. are of a more trivial nature while corruption falls into the more serious category such as impersonation, bribery, vote rigging etc. With regards to Eastern PC polls such violations has been on the low side.

Most of the incidents observed by both Police and election observers has been trivial in nature.

Thus Authorities should ensure that the momentum is continued both during the election day and in the aftermath.

A psephological study

The word psephology emanates from a Greek word with the definition being the statistical analysis of elections, which is been used the world over to study trends regarding various elections.

Applying psephological trends in the Sri Lankan scenario is not an easy task because it is based on a district-wise set up under the proportional representation system.

But a conclusion could be arrived at by studying past results closely and also applying other facts such as present political trends, calibre of candidates, contesting parties etc.

One salient factor in the Sri Lankan elections over the years has been that except to change Governments voters have a tendency to vote the ruling party into power in minor elections such as the local and PC polls.

However, the PC polls in the East has some unique features. One is that it is being held after two decades and the other is the ethnic proportion of the province which could play a pivotal role.

However, unlike the recent local polls in Batticaloa this elections is clearly a two horse race between the two heavyweights the UPFA and UNP.

Trincomalee district

Trincomalee which has three electorates (Seruwila, Trincomalee and Muttur) could play a decisive role in the election, which is to appoint 10 members to the Council.
 

District	Population	Number		Electoral
				of votes	districts
Batticaloa	486,447		330,950		Kalkuda
						Batticaloa
						Padirippu
Digamadulla	592,997		409,308		Ampara
						Samanthure
						Kalmune
						Potuvil
Trincomalee	340,158		242,463		Seruwila
						Trincomalee
						Mutur
Total		1,419,602	982,721

In the latest local elections Tamil parties got the majority but at the last Presidential Elections the Trincomalee electorate was won by Ranil Wickremesinghe, while Seruwila was won by President Rajapaksa with a big lead. In Muttur the contest was fairly even.

According to the present trend one can expect that the Seruwila electorate dominated by Sinhalese would be won by the UPFA in a canter.

The absence of the TNA could play decisive role in the Trinco electorate which could tilt the scale towards TMVP which backs the UPFA, but also indications are that the UNP would too get a substantial proportion of the Tamil votes, so a close tussle seems to be in the offing.

In Muttur the united Muslim vote bank at the Presidential poll seems to have been divided with late defections and the Government's development drive along with eliminating the LTTE factor seeming to have tilted the balance towards the UPFA. So all in all there could be a close tussle but indications are that the UPFA would win the Trincomalee district by a slight margin.

Batticaloa

Batticaloa which has three electorates Kalkudah, Padirippu and Batticaloa) comprise 330,950 voters and is slated to elect 11 members to the council.

Batticaloa district is dominated by Tamils with around 80 per cent of the populace being of Tamil origin. In the recently concluded Local Government Elections the TMVP swept to power and the same could be expected at the PC Elections too.

As the TMVP is contesting as a constituent of the UPFA one can safely assume that the UPFA would win Batticaloa with a big margin. Analysts have predicted that the UPFA would get at least 08 out of the 11 seats on offer in the district.

Digamadulla

The Largest district in the East with four electorates namely Ampara, Samanthurai, Kalmunai and Pottuvil is considered as the most pivotal, with analyst predicting a very close tussle between the two parties.

The district has a total of 490,308 voters with roughly the Sinhala and Muslims consisting 40 per cent each and the remaining 20 per cent being Tamils. In the Pottuvil electorate Ranil Wickremesinghe obtained a majority in the last Presidential Elections but indications are that the trend could be reversed with the large number of development projects launched in the area tilting the balance towards the ruling party.

In Kalmunai analysts predict that the UNP might have the upper hand while in Samanthurai the UPFA clearly seems to lead the race with Muslim defections having a big say.

In the Ampara electorate a keen tussle is expected with both parties having an equal opportunity to grab this most important electorate.

The defection of the UNP strongman P. Dayaratne to the Government ranks seems to have been a big setback for the party.

However, the Ampara district according to analysts would see the closest tussle in the entire province but the UPFA once again might have the edge because of the incumbency factor.

In Ampara too as in other areas of the East, the general polity might not want to reverse the gains by Government gained under trying conditions and the indications are that the UPFA would secure the Eastern PC at the coming poll.

One of the encouraging factors in this election is that the two major players in the race boasts of having all three communities represented in their ranks.

This could pave the way to get rid of the voting pattern on communal lines which has been a bane in Sri Lankan elections. This was predicted way back even when the Donoughmore Commission presented its report.

This could be viewed as a salient factor, especially in the East as it is of utmost importance that the Eastern resurgence should be based on communal harmony.

This could be viewed as a catalyst for greater things ahead in the Northern front and the country in general as it would pave way to unite all communities under one banner while preserving the Sri Lankan identity.