New hope on climate change
Jeffrey Sachs
Climate change : let’s hope for the best
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With so many crises afflicting our world, there is perhaps cynicism
that yet another global conference did little more than promise to
continue talking. But let’s see the positive message instead: 190
countries agreed on a sensible plan, and the underlying science and
technology gives us realistic hopes for achieving it
The world has taken an important step toward controlling climate
change by agreeing to the Bali Action Plan at the global negotiations in
Indonesia earlier last month. The plan may not look like much, since it
basically committed the world to more talking rather than specific
actions, but I am optimistic for three reasons.
First, the world was sufficiently united that it forced the United
States to end its intransigence. Second, the road map marks a sensible
balance of considerations. And, third, realistic solutions are possible,
which will allow the world to combine economic development and control
of greenhouse gases.
The first step at Bali was to break the deadlock that has crippled
the global response to climate change since the signing of the Kyoto
Protocol a decade ago. This time the world united, even booing the US
lead negotiator until she reversed position and agreed to sign the Bali
Action Plan.
Likewise, the unwillingness of major developing countries such as
China and India to sign on to a plan also seems to be ending, though
considerable work remains to craft a global agreement to which both rich
and poor countries can agree.
Doing so requires balancing many concerns. First, we must stabilise
greenhouse gases in order to avoid dangerous human interference in the
climate system - the key goal of the 1992 United Nations Framework
Convention on Climate Change, the global treaty under which the Bali
negotiations took place.
Second, we must accomplish this while leaving room for continued
rapid economic development and poverty reduction. Poor countries do not
and will not accept a system of climate control that condemns them to
continued poverty. Third, we must help countries adapt to the climate
change that is already occurring and that will intensify in the future.
The Bali Action Plan addresses all three concerns. The plan’s main
point is to establish an Ad Hoc Working Group to reach a detailed global
agreement by 2009 that will set “measurable, reportable, and verifiable”
commitments to reduce greenhouse-gas emissions.
Such commitments are to be taken in the context of “sustainable
development,” meaning “economic and social development and poverty
reduction are global priorities”. The plan also calls for knowledge
transfer to enable poor countries to adopt environmentally sound
technologies.
The great question, of course, is whether stabilisation of greenhouse
gases, continued economic development, and adaptation to climate change
can be achieved simultaneously. Using our current technologies, no; but
if we develop and rapidly adopt new technologies that are within our
scientific reach, yes.
The most important challenge is to reduce, and eventually nearly
eliminate, carbon dioxide emissions from burning fossil fuels such as
oil, natural gas, and coal.
These fuels are at the core of the modern world economy, supplying
around four-fifths of the world’s commercial energy. Such emissions can
be eliminated by either shifting to renewable forms of energy or
reducing the emissions from fossil fuels.
The key insight is that roughly 75 percent of our fossil fuel use
goes for just a few purposes: to produce electricity and heat at power
plants, to drive automobiles, to heat buildings, and to power a few key
industries such as refineries, petrochemicals, cement, and steel.
We need new environmentally sound technologies in each of these
sectors.
For example, power plants can adopt solar energy or capture and
safely dispose of the carbon dioxide they produce with fossil fuels - as
can large factories.
Automobiles can be engineered for much greater mileage through hybrid
technology combining battery power and gasoline. Buildings can reduce
their heating needs through improved insulation, or by converting from
heating oil to electricity produced by clean technology.
According to the best economic and engineering estimates, if each key
economic sector develops and adopts environmentally sound technologies
in the coming decades, the world will be able to reduce carbon emissions
dramatically for less than 1 percent of annual global income, thereby
avoiding long-term damage that would cost far more.
In other words, the world can combine economic growth with declining
emissions of carbon dioxide. And rich countries will be able to afford
to help poor countries pay for the new, cleaner technologies.
To reach an agreement by 2009, we must move beyond current
generalities by which rich and poor countries argue about who should be
blamed for climate change and who should pay the costs.
We will need a true global business plan that spells out how the new
technologies are developed, tested, and adopted on an expedited basis
worldwide.
We must ensure that all countries adopt a verifiable strategy for
environmentally sound technology, and that rich countries fulfil the
Bali Action Plan’s promise to provide “financial and other incentives”
to enable poor countries to adopt the new technologies.
With so many crises afflicting our world, there is perhaps cynicism
that yet another global conference did little more than promise to
continue talking. But let’s see the positive message instead: 190
countries agreed on a sensible plan, and the underlying science and
technology gives us realistic hopes for achieving it.
There is considerable and difficult work ahead, but the situation is
better as a result of the deliberations in Bali. Now it’s time to role
up our sleeves and achieve what we’ve promised.
The writer is Professor of Economics and Director of the Earth
Institute at Columbia University
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