Putin could become leader of a land larger than Russia adding
Belarus
Vladimir Putin could become the leader of a land even larger than
Russia - a development that may hinge on talks beginning Thursday in
neighbouring Belarus.
Putin has unexpectedly revived efforts to create a single state from
the two former Soviet republics - a merger that would expand his options
for exercising power after he steps down from the Russian presidency
next year.
Putin heads to the Belarusian capital, Minsk, on Thursday for
discussions of a framework for the long-debated union, fleshing out an
existing agreement that has meant little in practice.
A merger of Russia and Belarus could allow Putin to leave the Russian
presidency as promised in May yet still remain a chief of state.
"I wouldn't be surprised if Putin tries to speed up a union with
Belarus ... to become the president of the unified state," said Gennady
Zyuganov, Russia's Communist Party chief.
Putin, who has indicated he will seek to retain significant influence
after term limits force him from the Kremlin, does have at least one
other option.
On Monday, he said he supported his protege, first deputy prime
minister Dmitry Medvedev, to become Russia's next president. Medvedev
instantly became the overwhelming favorite in the March 2 vote and he,
in turn, asked Putin on Tuesday to be his prime minister, though Putin
has not yet accepted.
The creation of a single state could give Putin an alternative to the
Russian prime minister's post.
If the two countries can agree, it would mark the first merger of a
former Soviet state with Russia since the Soviet Union split apart in
1991 - a step that would make many Russians proud.
But the move could damage Russia's relations with the West,
especially if Moscow is seen as using pipelines that supply Belarus with
natural gas to force the smaller country into an agreement.
Ahead of Putin's visit, Belarus' beleaguered Western-oriented
political opposition was already fighting the idea of a merger. Police
on Wednesday forced some 200 protesters from a Minsk square where they
waved flags and chanted "No union with imperial Russia!"
One of the leaders of the opposition Young Front was knocked off his
feet and stomped on by riot police. He was bundled into an ambulance,
unconscious.
Some analysts doubt a deal can be reached, because Belarus President
Alexander Lukashenko - a Soviet-style leader dubbed Europe's last
dictator by the West - is unlikely to cede power.
Lukashenko's office said last week the talks between Putin,
Lukashenko and other ranking officials would focus on a draft
constitution of a union.
Russia's Ekho Moskvy radio quoted unidentified members of the
Lukashenko administration as saying Moscow and Minsk had struck a deal:
Putin, the sources said, would become president of a Russia-Belarus
union while Lukashenko would become the speaker of its parliament.
Officials in Moscow and Minsk have denied the report, but politicians
and commentators in both countries agree that Putin's trip signals a
renewed interest in the merger.
When Medvedev proposed that Putin become prime minister, many
analysts saw it as the Kremlin's preferred plan to maintain his
influence. But some said Putin would never accept what would amount to a
demotion.
Pavel Borodin, secretary of the existing Russian-Belarusian executive
body, said Wednesday that drafts of the constitution being considered
would give the president of a new unified country the power to rule over
the current national governments.
He said the new constitution would be subject to approval by each
nation's parliament and would be put to voters in national referendums.
Putin could find it difficult to persuade the Belarusian leader to
relinquish his country's independence. And Lukashenko seems to lack the
leverage needed to win an agreement that favors Belarus, which has a
population of just 9.7 million compared with Russia's 141.4 million.
Moscow, Thursday, AP |