Growth of prepaid segment dominate mobile services market

IDC’s preliminary results show that the total revenue of the mobile services market in emerging Asian countries (Bangladesh, Pakistan Sri Lanka and Vietnam) reached US$3.1 billion and registered a 72.9% annual growth rate in 2006.

In all four emerging markets, the total number of mobile subscribers grew an astounding 118.5 per cent growth to 89.3 million, over the previous year.

The robust appetite for mobile services drove the market in these countries, particularly Pakistan and Bangladesh, two of the world’s most populous countries.

Prepaid vs Postpaid Subscribers Forecast 2007-2011 In 2006, voice revenue increased 66.4 per cent year-on-year while non-voice revenue grew 103.6 per cent and accounted for 20.5per cent of the total mobile service revenue, indicating a big jump from 2005.

The mobile penetration is still very low in these countries at below 30 per cent. Growth in the prepaid segment, which dominates the market at 95 per cent of the total subscriber base, continued to be more aggressive than that of the contract segment. Prepaid subscribers in all four countries surged by 124.8 per cent in 2006, while contract subscribers grew more fairly at 42.6 per cent.

Mass-market users prefer the prepaid service as a means of controlling their budget and not exceeding their expenditure on mobile services. All operators provide prepaid packages, with some operators coming up with several packages to best suit different subscriber preferences.

“Given the relatively lower spending capabilities in the emerging countries, prepaid and pay-per-use models, which require a smaller immediate payment from subscribers, is proving successful.” says Kam Kasturie, Senior Analyst for IDC’s Malaysia Telecommunications Res- earch.

IDC forecasts a strong compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 25.9 per cent for the total revenue of the mobile services market in all four countries over the next five years. Moving forward, non-voice service revenue will keep on rising due to the staggering growth of subscribers in these markets.

IDC’s forecast for the region’s subscriber base is likewise optimistic with a CAGR of 28 per cent from 2007-2012, with mobile users continuing to prefer prepaid subscription. Country Highlights

Teledensity in Bangladesh started to increase with the introduction of mobile phones a few years ago. The mobile penetration rose from 7.2 per cent in 2005 to 14.4 per cent in 2006. The mobile subscriber growth was double at 103.5 per cent in 2006, primarily from the prepaid segment.

The number of mobile subscribers in Pakistan grew 145.9 per cent in 2006. Since the cabinet’s approval of the de-regulation policy for its telecommunication sector in 2004, the country’s mobile market has become one of the fastest growing in the region.

Sri Lanka became the first country in South Asia to introduce 3G when it launched W-CDMA technology in August 2006. The launch of high-speed mobile data transmission possible through 3G is expected to add more value and momentum to the non-voice segment and to the country’s mobile sector.

Non-voice service revenue in Vietnam jumped at 134.0 per cent year-on-year to 55.7 per centof total market revenue, while voice grew 80.5 per cent in 2006.

With SMS being the cheapest form of communication, usage is relatively high, and this trend will likely continue due to the lower income levels in the country.