Japan’s Abe braces for harsh verdict
JAPAN: Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe is expected to face a
stinging rebuke in elections Sunday as voters show more concern about
scandals and the economy than his conservative agenda.
A defeat could lead to calls for the premier to step down and bring a
divided parliament, ushering in a new period of political instability in
the world’s second-largest economy.
Voters will choose half the lawmakers of the upper house in the first
nationwide test for 52-year-old Abe, who took office last September as
Japan’s first leader born after World War II.
He took over with a vow to build a “beautiful” nation prouder of its
past and to erase some legacies of war defeat, notably by rewriting the
US-imposed pacifist constitution.
But polls predict his coalition will suffer a sizable setback amid a
slew of scandals and revelations of massive bungling in the pension
system.
Asked which party they would vote for, 27.4 percent of respondents to
Kyodo News agency’s July 25-26 poll said they would vote for the main
opposition Democratic Party of Japan, almost unchanged from the July
14-15 poll of 27.2 percent.
Those who favour Abe’s Liberal Democratic Party edged up to 21.5
percent from 18.3 percent, the agency said.
The poll found that 56.3 percent of respondents hope the LDP-led
ruling coalition will lose a majority in the upper house, up from 52.2
percent, while those who wish the ruling bloc to maintain a majority
fell to 27.2 percent from 31.3 percent.
The disapproval rate for Abe rose slightly up to 59.7 percent, a
record, from 58.8 percent, while his support rate showed a similar
upward trend to 29.2 percent from 28.1 percent, Kyodo said.
In a separate poll taken July 24-26 by Japan’s Yomiuri daily, 28
percent of respondents said they would vote for the DPJ, and 23 percent
said they would vote for LDP.
The result was a 3 percentage-point increase for the LDP from the
previous poll on July 17-19, the paper said.
Yomiuri said that the narrowing margin indicates the LDP’s
intensifying efforts amid a growing sense of crisis.
Abe’s Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) and its sole coalition partner
New Komeito are expected to fall short of winning 64 of the 121 seats up
for grabs — the minimum that would allow them to maintain a majority.
Indeed, recent comments suggest the prime minister is almost resigned to
defeat.
“Please let us win. We cannot lose now,” a desperate Abe told voters
in an election rally in Tokyo. “It is a tough fight, but we want to do
our best to the end.”
His top aides have insisted that Abe will stay in office, even though
past premiers quit after upper house defeats. Analysts said Abe’s
survival would depend on just how badly his coalition fares.
“It’s now obvious that the ruling coalition cannot help but suffer a
major loss,” said Tetsuro Kato, professor of politics at Hitotsubashi
University in Tokyo.
“But it is still unclear if Abe will be forced to step down as the
coalition’s defeat has already been factored in, which appears to lower
the hurdle for Abe,” Kato said.
Sunday’s election does not involve the more powerful lower house,
which selects the prime minister.
Abe inherited a sweeping majority in the lower house from his
predecessor Junichiro Koizumi, who sustained high popularity ratings for
more than five years in office with his flamboyant campaign style.
Koizumi styled himself as a reformist, advocating liberalisation and
campaigning against conservative factions within the LDP, which has
ruled Japan almost continuously since 1955.
But Abe has instead been hit by charges that he is beholden to the
party’s old guard. Two of his ministers have resigned and another
committed suicide amid a raft of scandals.
The Japanese opposition has gone on the offensive after a government
agency admitted to misplacing millions of pension payment records, a
sensitive issue in a rapidly ageing country.
The main opposition Democratic Party of Japan, formed in 1998 as a
motley group of former socialists and LDP rebels, has also highlighted
the growing income gap in Japan under Koizumi’s reforms.
Abe initially focused not on the economy but on sensitive history
issues. He pushed through parliament legislation to teach patriotism at
schools and create a full-fledged defence ministry, both considered
taboo since World War II.
He also earned early points by improving ties with China and South
Korea that chilled under Koizumi largely over war memories.
But under Abe relations have soured dramatically with nuclear-armed
North Korea, on which the premier has long championed a tough line.
Tokyo, Friday, AFP
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