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Bread & Circuses By Cicero

So here we go again. The ritual obeisance at the altar of Independence completed Sri Lanka's political elite is again locked in its internecine warfare. The President travels to Mahiyangana and lets loose a broadside against the Prime Minister and the UNF Government. The air is thick with speculation again about a dissolution of Parliament and yet another General Election.

The SLFP is preparing for an alliance with the JVP and Minister S.B. Dissanayake is on record as sayingBack to the Merry-go Round that if the President and the PA does not support any settlement the Government reaches with the LTTE it will go for a General Election.

Crucial to the whole process are the negotiations between the Government and the LTTE which this time moved to Berlin and this is the ace up President Kumaratunga's sleeve as well. Several times she has expressed various reservations about the talks and what she sees as the concessions the Government is making to the LTTE and for its part the LTTE itself has been rather generous in giving her reasons for intervening.

The latest was the blowing up of a boat off the island of Delft which has been the biggest incident since the commencement of the present ceasefire which has now held for a year. The LTTE has been quick to regret the incident but what it must realise is that expressions of regret by themselves are not adequate in what is a sensitive political equation for the Government which has staked its entire future on the peace process. As in the case of conscripting children the LTTE must by its actions demonstrate that it is serious about effecting its transition from a military outfit to a political organisation.

The Delft incident is precisely the kind of handle which the President can do with and this is what she proceeded to use to haul Defence Minister Tilak Marapana over the coals. What we are concerned with here is not so much the logistics of the incident as its political implications. Needless to say if a situation of conflict continues between the President, who by virtue of her office is the Commander-in-Chief of the armed forces, and the Defence Minister belonging to another political party, that can have far-reaching repercussions on the whole state machinery.

The situation is compounded by the fact that rightly or wrongly the LTTE perceives the armed forces to be unco-operative towards the peace process and thus supportive of the President while the President and sections of Sinhala opinion feel that the Government is soft on the LTTE. Such polarisation of opinion can have a debilitating effect on the peace process something the LTTE would do well to realise.

There were other signs this week too of the President seeking to assert herself. She questioned the Government about the role of Mr. Akashi the Special Representative of the Japanese Government suggesting that he was being treated by the Sri Lanka Government as its foreign affairs advisor.

The President's position assumes relevance in the context of concern expressed by commentators such as Dayan Jayatillaka that the understanding between the Government and the LTTE was being used by the United States to introduce Japan into the Indian Ocean region as a counter to India which has traditionally considered itself to be the regional power.

It is also significant that the next round of talks will be held in Japan where according to the Government's chief negotiator Professor G.L. Pieris the whole question of a federal system will be taken up.

It is against this backdrop that the SLFP is girding itself to join forces with the JVP even at the risk of fragmenting the People's Alliance. On one hand this is a recognition on the part of the SLFP of electoral reality for as Mr. Anura Bandaranaike has conceded, the SLFP by itself is incapable of defeating the UNP. But the point of such an alliance will be that the SLFP will have to concede its position on the ethnic issue paradoxically enough fostered and nurtured by the President herself.

Government itself is not unmindful of the situation for it surely knows that it is not for nothing that the SLFP is teaming up with the JVP. Crucial again to the whole process are the negotiations because if the President wants to pull the rug from under the feet of the Government she will so time it that it would be at a time propitious to herself and this can hinge on the progress of the talks.

It can cut either way because if she feels that too much is being conceded to the LTTE she can go to the country on a Sinhala platform while if by some chance the talks flounder that by itself will give the necessary handle to the anti-Government forces.

It is in this context that political observers are thinking of a scenario on the following lines said to have been recommended to the President by a SLFP think tank led by a President's Counsel. According to this scenario the President will sack the Prime Minister and the Cabinet on the grounds that they are endangering national security and the country's sovereignty and appoint a Prime Minister and Cabinet of her choice. This Government will be defeated in Parliament when it seeks the confidence of Parliament since the UNF will be in a numerical majority in the House.

Then elections will be held under this Caretaker Government friendly towards the SLFP and under such circumstances it is expected that a SLFP-JVP Government can be formed.

Either way the contest for national power will sharpen in the days to come.

The language and rhetoric of the political debate is again becoming bitter and adversarial positions are hardening. The solidifying of a SLFP-JVP alliance can only lead to a sharper polarisation of the opposing political forces and while this will lead to a quickening and heightening of the political temperature it can only have a harmful effect on the long-term interests of the country.

It is in this context that all those who have the country's welfare at heart will wish that the much-abused co-habitation could be made to work, chimerical though such a prospect is at the moment.

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