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By Terry Friel

SRINAGAR, India, Oct 10 (Reuters) - The winners of Indian Kashmir's state election are due to be named on Thursday, and the result is likely to see a sharp rise in the number of lawmakers strongly critical of New Delhi's treatment of the disputed region.

Counting for a new 87-seat state assembly gets underway at 8:00 a.m. (0230 GMT), a senior electoral official said, adding he expected a final tally by late evening.

After four violent rounds of voting from September 16 to Tuesday, counting will be conducted under tight security in each district across Jammu and Kashmir state.

In the summer capital, Srinagar, counting is at the Sher-e-Kashmir (Lion of Kashmir) convention centre on a headland surrounded on three sides by the mirror-calm Dal Lake.

Passing traffic was stopped from Wednesday night and boats patrolled the waters outside the heavily-wooded complex where the new government will also be sworn in later this week if there is a clear result.

India has declared the 46 percent turnout -- eight percent lower than the last state election in 1996 -- a victory for its rule and for democracy in the face of anti-poll attacks by separatist rebels that have killed almost 750 people since August 2.

But victory has a sting. The dynastic ruling National Conference party, a member of the federal coalition government, is almost certain to lose its once-invincible two-thirds majority and there is even a chance it could lose power to a rival coalition.

National Conference chief Omar Abdullah, whose father is outgoing chief minister and whose grandfather also once ruled Kashmir, has said the party will not attempt keep power if it loses its majority.

CRITICAL OF GOVERNMENT

The National Conference losses will be picked up by parties and a handful of independents critical of New Delhi and its Kashmir policies.

Although none of the main parties are anti-Indian -- separatists boycotted the election -- most are strongly critical of the central government's treatment of Kashmir and some, such as the Congress party, are fierce and nationally powerful opponents of the Hindu nationalist Bharatiya Janata Party that leads the federal government.

They want action on allegations of human rights abuses by the 450,000-strong security forces, a bigger say for Kashmiris within Indian rule and greater efforts to improve the lot of ordinary people, many of whom live a subsistence life with no electricity despite freezing Himalayan winters, no clean water and a moribund state economy.

India is using the moderately strong turnout to strengthen its hand against Pakistan over the disputed region that brought the nuclear powers close to war in June.

New Delhi set a successful election as a critical, but not decisive, condition to talks with Pakistan and the United States has said it will resume pressing both for talks after the Kashmir poll and Pakistan's own elections on Thursday.

India and Pakistan massed a million men along their vast border after an attack on India's parliament New Delhi blamed on Pakistan-based Kashmiri separatists.

India accuses Pakistan of sponsoring Islamic militants and sending them across the frontier to join the 13-year-old revolt against Indian rule that India says has killed 35,000 people and separatists 80,000.

Paistan denies the charge, but has said it has stopped all but rogue rebels crossing the frontier. New Delhi says infiltrations have increased since the election was called.

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Produced by Lake House
Copyright 2001 The Associated Newspapers of Ceylon Ltd.
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