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Kashmir militants bide time as India, Pakistan brace for war

MUZAFFARABAD, Pakistan-controlled Kashmir, Friday (AFP) Muslim militant groups are keeping a low profile in Pakistan-controlled Kashmir these days, but they insist their rebellion against Indian "occupation" will not stop despite President Pervez Musharraf's crackdown on Islamic extremism.

Once bustling militant offices have been shifted out of the centre of Muzaffarabad, the capital of the northern third of the Himalayan state which Pakistan controls, and graffiti calling for jihad or holy war against India has disappeared from the town's walls.

But the fighters insist their uncharacteristic discretion is normal "operational strategy" linked to "unusually cold weather" and has nothing to do with Musharraf's crackdown announced January 12.

The Pakistani general and president banned five extremist groups in a landmark speech to the nation in which he vowed to rid the country of Islamic militancy and sectarianism.

The banned groups included two of the most radical outfits involved in the Kashmir insurgency against India, the Lashkar-e-Taiba and the Jaish-e-Mohammad, which India has accused of multiple "terrorist" strikes including the dramatic attack on the parliament in New Delhi in December.

That attack, which left 14 people dead including the militants, brought nuclear neighbours India and Pakistan to the brink of war and precipitated Musharraf's move to rein in militants operating from Pakistani soil.

But few believe Musharraf can completely end the militants' infiltration across the Line of Control separating Pakistani and Indian-held Kashmir, where a Muslim rebellion against Indian rule has raged since 1989.

India's Border Security Force (BSF) commander, Rajinder Bhullar, on Thursday said there had been a reduction in militant related activities in Kashmir since Musharraf's speech, but militants here denied this.

"This is a false impression which India wants to spread to demoralize the struggling Kashmiris," a spokesman for Kashmir's largest militant group, the Hizbul Mujahedin, said.

"There is no recession or decline in our struggle due to what Mr Pervez Musharraf has done in Pakistan in view of his country's internal situation and problems," spokesman Salim Hashmi told AFP, taking pains to differentiate between Pakistan and the semi-autonomous part of Kashmir controlled by Islamabad, known as Azad (Free) Kashmir.

"If at all there was any decline, it is only because of weather."

The Kashmir valley has received heavy snowfalls in recent days, which local military officials believe is the main factor behind a de-escalation of artillery and small-arms fire along the disputed border, where the Indian and Pakistani armies have been massed and ready for battle since December.

"If you look at the corresponding periods of the previous year, you will notice a similar but temporary decline in the activities of the mujahedin," said Hashmi.

BSF commander Bhullar said that from January 12 to January 31, there had been only 30 encounters between militants and the Indian security forces, compared to the usual weekly average 40 encounters.

But Hashmi said the militants did not have a weekly quota of operations to fill, and claimed that most militant activity originated in Indian-controlled Kashmir rather than the Pakistani side.

"Whenever there is an opportunity, we make the most of it. Sometimes there are more opportunities and sometimes less," he said.

"Musharraf's crackdown has not made any difference because 90 percent of the fighters are local Kashmiris, and the majority is affiliated with Hizbul Mujahedin."

The government in Azad Kashmir, which has its own parliament and constitution, has promised to follow Musharraf's lead with regard to militant activity.

But there has been no repeat here of the mass arrests of suspected extremists in Pakistan following Musharraf's speech. Some 2,000 people have been detained across Pakistan since January 12.

"Those who do not create any law and order problem will not be arrested," Azad Kashmir Prime Minister Sardar Sikandar Hayat said in the wake of Musharraf's speech.

Despite the soft stance of the Azad Kashmir government, analysts here said the mujahedin groups are clearly lying low.

Their almost daily statements condemning Indian "atrocities" against Kashmiri civilians have dried up since January 12, and chief cadres avoid appearing in public. 

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