Gross official reserves up to US $ 7.1 b
Policy measures implemented in February and March of this year, aimed
at reducing the high import growth and the high credit expansion, were
yielding the expected results. In the external sector, preliminary
estimates indicate the desired deceleration of expenditure on imports in
June 2012 and a corresponding decline in the deficit in the trade
account in the second quarter of 2012.
In the monetary sector, year-on-year growth of broad money has
decelerated from 22.9 percent in April to 20.5 percent in June 2012. At
the same time, the growth of credit extended to the private sector by
commercial banks has declined from 18.1 percent in the second half of
2011 to 11.4 percent in the first half of 2012.
The global economic conditions continue to worsen with the recovery
of US and European economies remaining sluggish. However, these adverse
global conditions are not likely to affect the Sri Lankan economy more
than that was anticipated at the time of revising the economic growth
forecast for 2012 downward to 7.2 percent. Further, the amount of credit
that could still be disbursed in the second half of the year by licensed
banks even with the credit ceiling in place, could comfortably support
the revised economic growth path. In that context, the growth estimates
still seem to be within reach, notwithstanding the gloomy global
conditions.
The, cumulative net inflows to the Colombo Stock Exchange and net
foreign investments in the government securities market up to end July
2012, have exceeded US dollars 205 million and US dollars 842 million,
respectively. With the receipt of the final tranche of the IMF-SBA
facility of US dollars 414 million, the proceeds of the successful fifth
International Sovereign Bond issue of US dollars 1 billion in July 2012
and other foreign inflows, gross official reserves are estimated to have
risen to around US dollars 7.1 billion by end July 2012. Such levels of
reserves is equivalent to an import cover of 4.2 months, and the
strengthened external sector position is likely to attract further
foreign investment flows as estimated. Accordingly, the economy is on
track to realise the macroeconomic targets as envisaged.
Nevertheless, inflation has picked up with year-on-year inflation,
which has remained at single digit levels for the past 3 ½ years,
increasing to 9.8 per cent in July 2012, from 9.3 percent in the
previous month, although annual average inflation has continued to
remain at around 6 percent since February 2012.
This increase has been mainly due to adverse weather conditions and
the resulting disruptions to domestic food supplies. However, although
there could be some transitory inflationary pressures in the near term,
the expected improvements in domestic supply conditions as well as the
measures that have been very recently implemented are expected to
contain consumer price inflation at single digit levels during the
remainder of the year. This is particularly so, since the recent
downward revisions to domestic gas prices and the reduction of taxes on
selected food imports are likely to favourably impact short term threats
to inflation while the tight monetary conditions that are in place would
suppress demand side inflationary pressures, thereby helping to maintain
inflation at the targeted level in the medium term.
Taking into account the current macroeconomic developments and the
impact that the recent policy actions are already having on the external
and monetary sector, the Monetary Board of the Central Bank of Sri Lanka
was of the view that the current monetary policy stance is appropriate,
and accordingly, at its meeting held on August 6, 2012, decided to
maintain the Repurchase rate and the Reverse Repurchase rate of the
Central Bank unchanged at 7.75 percent and 9.75 percent, respectively. |