Economics driving politics globally, but posers remain

With economics increasingly driving politics in the current world order, the reported decision by the US to beef-up its naval muscle in the Asia-Pacific region may have come as somewhat of a surprise to many an observer. The development could seem to be a reconfirmation of the widely held perception that a rising US-China power struggle would be an essential feature of the emerging international power system.

However, US Defence Secretary Leon Panettta was very careful with his words when he explained the rationale behind the reported US decision to reposition the majority of its warships in the Asia-Pacific region, which is a highly dynamic centre of global economic productivity and growth: ‘Some view the increased emphasis by the United States on the Asia-Pacific region as some kind of challenge to China. I reject that view entirely.

‘Our effort to renew and intensify our involvement in Asia is fully compatible with the development and growth of China. Indeed, increased US involvement in this region will benefit China as it advances our shared security and prosperity for the future’, Panetta was quoted telling a security forum in Singapore recently.

With the US no longer facing a serious ideological challenger worldwide, since the drawing to a close of the Cold War and the US-USSR global confrontation in the late eighties, the question arises as to why the US would need to intensify its security in the Asia-Pacific region and that too in perceived collaboration with China.

Political ideology

In the Cold War years, the Western bloc and its allies were under compulsion to protect and advance their perceived political ideology and way of life, besides their security and economic interests, against their enemy the East bloc and its allies, on a global scale, but such compulsions no longer exist today in a major way. Liberal democracy and its corresponding economic regime of the ‘free market’ are seen as the preferred political and economic structures, respectively, of the world and the observer could be puzzled at the pronouncement that a notable security threat confronts the US in the Asia -Pacific.

Barring just a few former communist countries of not so significant power, the US currently has defence and security arrangements of some sort with the majority of major Asian countries, many of them highly productive economically and which make common cause with the West particularly in respect of economic ideology.

Japan, South Korea and Indonesia, for instance, are three such states and they are industrial powers of the first order. It is to be noted that India too is in the process of improving its ties with the US and could be expected to make common cause with the US on issues pertaining to economic policy in particular.

Moreover, the US is a major backer of India’s bid to obtain Permanent Membership of the UN Security Council and this too is a thought provoking move when the larger international power realities of Asia are taken into account. Apparently, the US would like to see India emerge as a predominant economic, political and military power in Asia, perhaps as a counterbalance to another power centre or centres which may not be very well in tune with the US’ interests in the Asian region.

Asia-Pacific region

China means mainly ‘business’ in the Asian region. It is currently seeking to increase its investment and commercial ties with a number of Asian states, besides seeking to do the same even in the African continent and some parts of Latin America. But it is quite some time since China left behind the ideology of what is known as the statist, ‘closed economy.’ In this respect it is at one with the US and the latter could be right in seeing China as sharing some of its major economic concerns.

In fact, the US’ continuing ‘trade and currency wars’ with China are proof that it would be in the countries’ interests to keep their economic ties in a state of vibrancy.

Given this relatively promising backdrop from the viewpoint of the countries concerned, it is difficult to see why the US would need to boost its naval power in the Asia-Pacific region, unless the US has it at the back of its mind that perceived Chinese expansionism in the region must be checked.

After all, the US could not see a significant threat emerging to its influence in the region, except from China. Recent inter-state squabbles over the economic and strategic resources of the South-China Sea in particular, could intensify this US perception of a military threat from China.

So, generally speaking, economics are driving politics globally, but in the Asia-Pacific region there is a residue from the former confrontational politics between the West and communism, which is prompting the US to look over its shoulder at China, lest its position as a number one power-wielder is threatened.