‘Business ‘as usual’ in paralysed Japan politics

JAPAN: When Yoshihiko Noda heads to Washington this weekend analysts say it will be business as usual: Barack Obama will probably have little idea if he will ever see the same Japanese prime minister again.

Japan's revolving-door leadership, due partly to bitter factional infighting and also a busy electoral calendar, has left the world's third largest economy playing a bit part on the global stage, said Gerald Curtis, professor of Japanese politics at Columbia University.

Noda, who is the fourth Japanese prime minister since Obama came to office, was nudged a little closer to the precipice on Thursday when a rival in his own party was cleared of offences connected to a funding scandal.

Ichiro Ozawa, who controls the largest faction in Noda's Democratic Party of Japan (DPJ), is firmly against the prime minister's signature policy of doubling the current five percent sales tax.

The tax rise is seen by academics, journalists and international bodies as the only sensible way for Japan to begin digging itself out of its ever deepening fiscal mire.

Now Japan's political establishment is bracing itself for Ozawa's next move.

Despite the waning in recent times of his once formidable political star, he or his proxy may challenge Noda for the party leadership -- and the premiership that currently comes with it -- in internal September elections.

“President Obama has to sit across the table and say to himself, how much longer is he likely to be prime minister when he gets back home. One month? Two months? Three months? No one knows,” Curtis said.

“Are you going to invest a lot of time and energy and share intelligence about North Korea or anything else with someone who is likely to be gone very soon?” he said.

Ozawa, a 69-year-old former DPJ leader once dubbed the “Shadow Shogun”, is credited with crafting the party's 2009 election victory that ousted the long-ruling Liberal Democratic Party from power.

The victory also enabled Ozawa to form a tight-knit faction of novice lawmakers within the party who owe their political careers to him, and the group say the sales tax rise would violate the DPJ's 2009 election promises.

A court on Thursday found Ozawa not guilty of charges he conspired with aides to hide 400 million yen ($4.9 million) he lent his political funding body in 2004 for a land deal.

Nonetheless the powerbroker's stature has been diminished on a political scene dominated by backroom bureaucrats.

Mizuho Securities chief market economist Yasunari Ueno said: “Ozawa's opposition to tax hikes is well known. More important is whether the ruling party is able to cobble together support from the opposition to push through the tax hike bill.” If not, and Ozawa's faction ramp up their campaign and continue to insist on no tax increase, Japanese politics -- already in perpetual slow motion -- could come grinding to a halt, say analysts.

“As long as the political culture remains the same, I think we are going to see more and more futile repetition of frequent leadership turnover without accomplishing anything,” said Koichi Nakano, political science professor at Sophia University in Tokyo.

AFP