'Emissions will defer next Ice Age'
Scientists say global warming and human carbon dioxide emissions will
postpone the next Ice Age expected to begin within 1,500 years from now.
"At current levels of CO2, even if emissions stopped now we'd
probably have a long interglacial duration determined by whatever
long-term processes could kick in and bring (atmospheric) CO2 down," BBC
quoted Luke Skinner of Cambridge University as saying.
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Next Ice Age expected to begin within 1,500 years from now. |
According to the study published in the journal Nature Geoscience,
the last Ice Age ended about 11,500 years ago but the high level of
emissions will defer the next.
Scientists believe the atmospheric concentration of CO2 should drop
to about 240 parts per million (ppm) for the glaciation to begin. The
current level is around 390ppm.
Some researchers say even if emissions were instantly stopped, their
concentrations would still remain high for at least 1,000 years, with
enough heat stored in the oceans to cause polar ice melting and sea
level rise.
"But in any case, the problem is how do we get down to 240, 250, or
whatever it is? Absorption by the oceans takes thousands or tens of
thousands of years - so I don't think it's realistic to think that we'll
see the next glaciation on the (natural) timescale," explained Prof.
Lawrence Mysak, emeritus professor of atmospheric and oceanic sciences
at McGill University, Montreal, Canada.
American researchers say sun spot activity will start to recede in
the next two years leading the Earth towards a new 'Little Ice Age' in
the coming years. Meanwhile, three separate studies conducted by
scientists of the American Astronomical Society's solar physics division
say solar activity will start to recede after its 11- year cycle comes
to its peak in 2013.
"The fact that there are three separate lines of evidence all
pointing in the same direction is very compelling," said Frank Hill of
the National Solar Observatory in New Mexico, who worked on one of the
studies.
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