Local Government elections:
A new balance
Dr Dayan JAYATILLEKA
The TNA’s Northern success, running against the ruling coalition in
an area with a heavy military ‘footprint’ means one thing above all
else: Sri Lanka remains a functioning, competitive, multiparty
democracy. All thinking and policy within Sri Lanka and about Sri Lanka
must stem from recognition of that basic fact. Yet, will the critics of
the incumbent administration and of this country grant us that much?
Knowing them as I do, I shan’t be holding my breath.
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Dr Dayan
Jayatilleka |
All those who wrote that democracy had died in Sri Lanka with the
18th Amendment, not to mention those who cannot write a paragraph about
President Mahinda Rajapaksa without an obligatory reference to Nazi
Germany, should tender apologies to the reading public or at the least
wriggle in shame in private, at the TNA’s performance in the Northern
and portions of the Eastern province. But again, knowing them as I do, I
shan’t be holding my breath.
Foreign policy
An emerging ‘pivotal power’, Turkey, much admired for its secularism,
moderate Islamic political party and independent foreign policy, has
faced a long-standing problem of secessionism from its Kurds. Today
Turkey is in a better place, not only because of its admirable
leadership, but because there is unprecedented space for the Kurds.
Since Turkey hardly has a federal state or regional autonomy for the
Kurds, what exactly is that space? It consists of several Kurdish
language radio and TV channels, over 30 members of Parliament, and many
mayors in the Kurdish majority areas.
All this the Tamil people and the TNA have now. This should not be
scoffed at, nor should Sri Lanka’s post-war achievement in opening that
space and keeping it open.
The election results confirm that which I had told the Archbishop of
Canterbury, in the presence of President Rajapaksa, in 2006 or early
2007, when he asked me how sure I was that what I had defined as a Just
War, would result in a Just Outcome. I answered that with the North and
East liberated by the military from the Tigers’ totalitarianism,
electoral and political space would re-open and the Tamil people would
be re-enfranchised, enabling them to democratically re-inscribe their
grievances and aspirations in the political agenda, albeit within a
united Sri Lanka.
Political dialogue
Today the domestic geopolitics of the island are clear: the UPFA is
the pre-eminent force among the vast majority inhabiting two thirds of
the island while the TNA is the pre-eminent entity among of the Tamil
people. The UPFA preponderates at the centre, the TNA at the Northern
periphery.
This reality is the antechamber to another reality. The TNA cannot
dream of another political negotiating partner other than the UPFA. An
alliance with the UNP makes no sense because that party lags so far
behind, it cannot deliver anything in the foreseeable future, and
furthermore, any alliance with the TNA will hurt the UNP’s electoral
chances, not enhance them, as candidate Fonseka found out to his cost.
The UPFA is the only real game in town among the Sinhalese. Similarly,
no dialogue with the Tamils is possible without the TNA or bypassing it.
Any consequential political dialogue must have as its main axis, the
UPFA and the TNA.
That second reality results from a third, or bottom line reality.
Neither the Sinhalese nor the Tamils can prevail over one another. The
Sinhalese could not be pushed beyond a point and they proved it with the
victory in war. The Sinhalese will keep the country as a united
territory and the single state, however long it takes, whatever the
odds, and whoever the foe, internal or external or any combination
thereof. Those located or having regrouped overseas who, having lost the
war for Tamil Eelam are trying to regain what they lost by enlisting the
support of erstwhile colonial patrons, will learn that what Sri Lanka
state has liberated and reunified, it shall hold, under whichever
leader, flag or generation and ‘by whatever means necessary’ (Malcolm
X). The Tamils for their part will not relinquish their collective
identity and search for dignity.
Sustainable peace
A sustainable peace is not possible exclusively on the terms of
either one or the other community. There will neither be a Tamil state
(separate or federal) nor a Sinhala peace over the Tamils. There will
have to be a modus vivendi. And such a modus vivendi can only be found
along the Buddha’s Middle Path or the Aristotelian Golden Mean between
what Sinhala and Tamil nationalism wish.
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Casting vote at LG polls held in
Jaffna after three decades of terrorism.
Picture by Nissanka Wijeratne |
With the election results we have a new balance of forces; a new
conjuncture. It is not and cannot be an equivalence or perfect
equilibrium, given abiding demographic realities and the decisive
results of a 30 years war. However, it provides a chance for a fresh
look and a new realism.
Have we been here before? In 1977 the electoral map was fairly
similar, with the UNP enjoying more than a two thirds majority while the
TULF dominated the North and pockets of the East. The difference is that
the War of Secession has been fought over a prolonged period, and lost.
Yet there are lessons to be learnt from the avoidable tragedy that
resulted from delay on the one side and delusion on the other. Let us
not make the same mistakes again.
Electoral map
Of course, today we are in another place. Any illusions of a separate
state as inspired by the Vadukkodai resolution have been burnt or buried
at Nandikadal. Any illusions of imposing silence on the Tamils and
eliminating their cultural and political resolve have been dispelled by
the electoral map that has unrolled with the Parliamentary and Local
Government elections.
Both communities have thrown their best or worst at each other and
both are still standing. What resilience and resolve! Both the Sinhalese
and Tamils should not only be proud of themselves but of each other,
because we are inhabitants of one island, and share the same DNA: we are
brothers and sisters. What we could achieve together! I am glad we won
the war, but sorry we ever had to fight one. Now, we have attained some
kind of balance. If the TNA pushes too hard or overshoots the mark,
opinion will harden in the bulk of the island, and vice versa. There can
be no solution to Tamil grievances which are unacceptable to the
majority of Sinhalese, just as there can be no deep-rooted, peace
without Tamil consent.
Now is the time to reach out to each other in mutual respect and
realism and establish a durable peace.
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