Sri Lanka, force to be reckoned with

Kenneth DABARERA

If I make an unbiased assessment of who would be the victor of the 10th World Cup? I would say only a miracle could prevent India winning, based on the current data enlisted below.

Sub Continent cricket pitches

With vicious turn and limited bounce and swing, climatically more reverse turn in the late evenings and nights would favour India the best with their best spin department. The only stumbling block might be the drastic climatic changes with heavy dew formation, if India has to field second in the day and night matches which would be a disadvantage to them. Spin bowling here is the Asian trump card while only Sri Lanka would be a threat to them with a well-balanced bowling department than the Indians.

India has the most formidable batting line-up

India has the most aggressive opening pair in the world with Sehwag being the most power hitting batsman in the world. If he gets going the best bowling attack could be torn to shreds as often seen. Only Chris Gayle and Dilshan could match him, but they are not consistent like Sehwag.

Tendulkar and Virat Kohli give a lot of consistency and could withstand any pressure. One of them is sure to play a consistent and a persistent role in keeping one end going simultaneously, with free scoring stroke play allowing the middle order hitters like Yuvraj Singh, Raina and Dhoni to score freely and quickly, building a formidable score. Here if both Tendulkar and Virat Kohli fail, Dhoni is sure to play a pivotal role with both attack and defence.

Recently we saw Yusuf Pathan using the long handle, hitting both pace and spin viciously in South African pitches and to him it would only be child's play in sub-continent pitches, which is more to his liking. Flat sixes, towering sixes he scored in South Africa, was just out of this world and had South Africa to hide their faces in shame, although they were declared winners by the skin of their teeth.

One a Sports Editor of the National English Daily said he would be surprised if Yusuf Pathan fails to be the Man of the Series but I added, for that to happen, the Indian selectors should play him for every match and he should be at least No. 6 in the batting order to achieve this feat. Harbhajan Singh would add strength to the Indian batting. Of late one could see that with his sheer determination, power play and intelligent batting he won many matches for India snatching them from the jaws of defeat more times than few.

Indian bowling

Indians have the best spin combination in the world where selectors could freely dabble with. Spin would determine verdict if the normal tropical conditions prevail during the tournament. The golden question is, could the Indians afford to have three pacies in the playing eleven, if there is a requirement due to some unprecedented changes in the newly laid down pitches as in Sri Lanka or if there is be an impact due to weather changes as what we are experiencing now? If this weather pattern continues even intermittently during the tournament time which would result tropical to become a temperate climate type which for that matter would favour England, New Zealand, Australia and South Africa.

However, as it stands, India is ready for any changes with their formidable batting line up and could chase any total or could put up a total nearing three hundred or more which could get any side out even if they have a weak pace attack. Their determination and fighting spirit saw many a victories in their recent South African tour when on the verge of defeat.

Indian fielding side

The young contingent has a tremendously improved fielding side as never seen before and could match any side as seen in the South African tour.

Captaincy and leadership

This is provided best by Dhoni, although his batting form is bit wanting, but he could make amends sooner than later. Nevertheless, his wicket keeping in the left side has to improve steadily.

He is a cool and collected customer, a calculated risk taker and a gambler. So far whatever he has done has paid rich dividends. He has good control of the team as he is a very loving and an impartial leader. Not only does he excel in the mind games, he appears and acts as an example to his teammates.

Even people like Harbhajan Singh show aggressiveness at times; Dhoni controls them so well that their hot tempers are made to short-live.

Now I would like to state where the other teams stand having watched most of the games played during the last three to four months in their current forms.

England - Although they won the Ashes with their all-round side and a little bit of luck on their side, they are no match to the Australians in the instant cricket cowboy game. They won't have a ghost of a chance in the forthcoming World Cup. They have a brittle batting display down the line and a fighting spirit is much in wanting.

New Zealand fails to strike as a unit; both their bowlers and the batsmen are inconsistent and their hard hitters play in fits and starts. Their recent tournament with Pakistan amply illustrates their inconsistency.

West Indies has a good combination of youth and experience; but if that one man, Gayle plays to his strength with consistency he could easily match Yusuf Pathan's type of play, but his staying ability is questionable. His shots over the ropes are out of this world. If two of the dynamic youngsters Adrian Barath and Dwayne Bravo play to the same potential as they did in Sri Lanka with Chanderpaul and Sarwan playing to their past ability and potential, West Indies could match the Indians.

The West Indies bowling department although good on paper they seldom bowl line and length with consistency. Their young captain has a role to play in controlling the side and using himself and the other spinner Sulieman Benn. With Gayle's spin bowling assistance could make a difference, but they lack the fighting spirit and more often resort to careless come-or-go attitude which is more or less the cause of their defeat. During the recent Sri Lanka tour, to our greatest surprise they played far below their expectations, sadly Gayle contributing the least.

South Africa - They have the best pace attack in the world parallel to only Australia. However, with less bounce and swing in subcontinent pitches, they may not be able to do much. However, with climatic and weather changes, if the recently laid pitches behave like temperate countries they would be simply unplayable. Yet with inconsistent batting display as seen in the recent tour with India and their spinners on the other hand not being that effective, it would be very difficult for them to win the cup.

But with that one man Jacques Kallis becoming 100% fit; easily the best all rounder in the world, could have an impact. However, the others would have to rally round him to create an upset which is more unlikely as their determination and fighting spirit cannot be matched with the Indians at any rate.

Pakistan - Very unfortunately their political situation in the country has laid the first brick for their downfall as they are so unfortunate to lose their home advantage after the tournament being held in the subcontinent. Nevertheless, man to man it is a force to reckon with and it is a team which could rise to the occasion - when the going gets tough the tough gets going attitude is displayed at its highest and have won many a match.

They even supersede India or Australia in the fighting spirit; highly unpredictable, as they could do the impossible. They could be the match winners with these qualities with a little bit of luck, if they face the finals even with Sri Lanka or India except with Australia with whom they are evenly matched.

Australia - With Bret Lee coming to the fray would be the best fast bowling attack more in the field than on the paper; as they have the unique quality of making docile pitches active and to make these pitches behave with unqualified bounce and swing which no bowling attack in the World could do.

Their dogged fighter Ricky Ponting who was the captain to win the World Cup twice for Australia out of the three consecutive times with the wealth of experience would handle the side in a manner to win the World Cup once again.

Sadly for him he is out of form and have not played international one dayers recently. However, like a tiger he could strike back in this tournament to do the impossible. Their opening pair is the most consistent in the world with Watson playing a more formidable role with Haddin following suite. Both could put a very big opening stand like the Indians and with other batsmen in form to follow as they did so well with England in one dayers and with an average spin department they could turn tables if they come to the finals.

But Cameron White who could play a role like Yusuf although not in form, strikes form with Ponting and if they happen to come to the finals could beat any side even Sri Lanka or India with their fighting spirit and with a little bit of luck.

Bangladesh who are minnows in test cricket, along with the other nations has only a very limited chance even to come to the quarter finals except for little knee jerks they may cause once in a way even with the best of opponents.

Why is Sri Lanka a force to reckon with?

I am a Sri Lankan and naturally like any other Sri Lankan, I hope and pray for the Sri Lankans to win. Now the question is: Can Sri Lanka win? Yes, if all cylinders are fired and work in unison, Sri Lanka could defeat even India with Lady Luck on our side.

Firstly, we should thank the Selection Committee for doing a very commendable job of selecting a 15-man squad which I believe is the best combination. Many critics amy have diverse views and they could be right with their own arguments. It is a fact that all these combinations cannot be accommodated within a 15-man squad.

The only blemish I see is that out of form Mendis could have been replaced with Suraj Randhiv like India selected Ashwin to be standby for Harbhajan Singh; but the selection committee has gone to Mendis, as he is the best weapon against all newcomers in any team.

Selection of Rangana Herath is highly justifiable as a leg spinner in the side as a replacement for Sanath Jayasuriya who served in good stead in the 1996 World Cup. I think Tisara Perera's selection as paceman to use the long handle is the right choice. Selection of Dilhara Fernando is the right gamble, in case Lasith is injured we should have a bowler with good pace, swing and bounce and the one who has best disguising slow ball and short bouncer which the critics say are of the best in the world.

Selection of Samaraweera is highly commendable as he could be the best choice as a 'stayer' and recently he has developed to be a free scoring bat using the long handle as the occasion demands. Selection of Chamara Silva is rightly picked as a replacement for Samaraweera in case he goes out of form of found unfit to play.

Chamara Kapugedera with all round abilities is more useful and the ideal choice as a hard hitter with the long handle and would be useful to match Indian hitters in this instant cricket type.

Selection of Nuwan Kulasekera, I believe a pace is considered on his youth and vigour to Chaminda Vaas but I believe both have almost equal batting prowess. Hence I only hope and pray Mathews who is our recent find as an all-rounder would be fully fit with the ball as his ability with the bat and in the field.

He has proved to be the ideal choice beyond doubt. The way Lasith Malinga batted in Australia, to bring victory clutching Sri Lanka from the jaws of defeat I feel he could become the Harbajan Singh for Sri Lanka with more batting practices given to him. Dilshan should continue with his natural game but should not play rash strokes to maintain the rate when the going is slow. Our opening pair should be very careful in running between the wickets without going for suicidal runs. Mahela is the most versatile batsman we have the lone innings he played in semi finals to bring Sri Lanka to finals in the last World Cup would remain in the memories of all Sri Lankans as almost equal to Sri Lanka winning the World Cup in 1996.

Here I would like to mention, besides Don Bradmon; we have not seen him batting, there is very little difference I could see among the batting greats like Sachin Tendulkar, Brian Lara and our Aravinda de Silva. But it is sad Aravinda is not placed in this bracket as always we Sri Lankans are given step motherly treatment by the Western World not only in political affairs but also in cricket.

I should categorically state here that I am not aimlessly penning words on paper but if one could view Aravinda batting on video at the semi finals and the finals in the 1996 World Cup, I am sure, if you are unbiased, would totally agree with me. Unfortunately Aravinda had very little test cricket to play compared to other world greats.

Our Captain Sangakkara is considered one of the batting greats in the current cricket arena; he has to continue playing more consistent innings which he often does if we are to win the World Cup.

His captaincy which is good could be further enhanced if he more often consults his former captain Mahela for a second opinion as Mahela has already earned the highest award for captaincy from the ICC in the recent past.

In conclusion I would state, if all my assumptions materialise - India would play sri Lanka in the finals if the mighty Australians are defeated. If India meets Sri Lanka in the finals it would be an almost evenly contested affair, although on paper India is the physically and potentially better side, mind games would determine the winners.

I as a Christian would firmly believe that divine intervention would bring victory to Sri Lanka. Without any injustice, prejudice or malice to the Sri Lankan side for their World cup victory in 1996 - one could see that divine intervention was on our side - the way the Australians fielded at the 1996 World Cup finals - the best fielding outfit in the World. This I believe is retribution for the Australians for stealing the last Benson and Hedges finals from us, which we richly deserved to win.

Finally, if I could wind up in cricketing parlance, "Glorious uncertainties of cricket" would change all assumptions, theories, rules, regulations, rites and rituals. Therefore, no cricket match is won or loss until the last ball is played.