Convincing mandate quashed regime change bid
Spotlight falls back on the election of 2010 and the convincing
mandate won by President Mahinda Rajapaksa with over a 1.5 million vote
margin. The challenger Sarath Fonseka failed far short of securing a
majority to cause the promised regime change. The reasons are
discernible loud and clear now than during the raucous campaign stretch.
Opposition
miscalculations |
*Waiting
for Ranil to assume leadership
*Ranil’s legendary anti-war
bias
*Underestimating the
people’s aspirations
*Ranil’s inability to take
the President head on
*Warped national security
credentials
*Two Opposition approaches
brought disastrous results
*Tiger Diaspora support
added to Opposition woes
*Attitude of certain
international powers compounded situation
*Non-cohesive coalition
leadership |
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President
Mahinda Rajapaksa |
That said the Opposition campaign was surprisingly driven by a
conflicting duality that eroded Fonseka’s electability as analysed
below:
The retired Commander was presented as the sole LTTE avenger; with no
nonsense storm the Bastille look bent on ousting a popular wartime
President with proven political mastery. Strangely, Fonseka
simultaneously declared that he would head an interim Government if
victorious, waiting for Ranil Wickremesinghe to emerge as leader at a
General Election later.
Fatal coalition blunder
Waiting for Ranil to eventually assume leadership became a fatal
coalition blunder. That flew in the face of the very reason to showcase
Fonseka: the surfeit of Tiger war heroism he claimed as his trump card.
It also implied either Fonseka’s lack of readiness and unsuitability or
both.
Worst still, Ranil’s anti-war bias had become legendary, spawning a
nagging campaign issue for Fonseka. Thus the coalition had totally
under-estimated that for most Sri Lankans military approach had become
the only viable option in the face of the Tiger menace and was happy the
way peace was won with honour.
Fallout calamitous
Critically, election revealed that await Ranil-dichotomy was
convoluted and unachievable: a pretext to oust a popular leader who had
won laurels prosecuting the war along with Defence Secretary, the Army,
Navy and the Air Force resolutely defending the country.
Ranil’s inability or unwillingness to take the President head on had
its dire repercussions plus his warped national security credentials led
to the search for an outsider. That failed to be a winning proposition -
the voting confirmed it. The fallout from the two approaches at odds
with each other was calamitous as reflected in the final low vote tally
Fonseka received in the predominant majority community areas except
selected precincts in Colombo, Kandy and Galle.
Tiger Diaspora’s elation at the turn of events and their preference
for the Commander over the Commander-in-Chief added to Fonseka’s woes.
Voters tend to reject a “defeat the incumbent no matter what” cry than a
well-canvassed mandate.
Worse still, the international powers who had thrown a lifeline to
the vanishing Tiger leadership also mouthed the same repellent regime
change mantra uttered by the Tiger Diaspora, Ranil and the candidate in
unison. The irony was beyond reprieve.
Fonseka spiraled into irrelevancy
The coalition leaders could not avert the domino effects of what had
arisen in the course of the campaign. The question how Fonseka spiraled
into irrelevancy-looking either here or there - cannot be avoided.
The coalition leaders also failed to shield Fonseka from harsh media
exposure. His Press briefings and interviews needed damage control or
retractions. Fonseka’s stage presence seemed out of sync at times.
He perhaps had wished to bring war dynamics to politics as an equally
worthwhile quest. That transition got botched due to the non-cohesive
coalition leadership and their breeding a hybrid out of the war and
anti-war postures of coalition leadership.
Fonseka’s pursuit of politics was his right. He perhaps was oblivious
that a thin line separated the temperament of a promising politician and
a military retiree who could use, as they say in metaphysics, a little
help.
Politicians often risk the danger of being caricatured unless well
endowed with geniality.
That said, the fundamental reasoning explained above remained intact.
The finger pointing, points-scoring and squabbling are fading away fast
as I write.
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