Climate patterns to predict next big flood
Large flooding events, like the deadly Pakistan flood last summer,
will be predictable with the next generation of climate-forecasting
models, according to scientists.
Flood risk can be predicted by studying climate patterns, Columbia
University hydroclimatologist Upmanu Lall said this month at the
American Geophysical Union (AGU) conference in San Francisco.
According to Lall, climate scientists should be able to refine their
models to be able to issue long-term predictions of impending flood
seasons, similar to those made each year for the intensity of the
upcoming hurricane season.
"I'm not claiming that it's possible to predict individual floods at
individual locations," Lall added of these long-term predictions. "What
I'm claiming is that we may be able to identify the patterns that lead
to more northerly floods in certain years, and more southerly foods in
others." Ocean connection Lall has examined the geographic distribution
of hundreds of severe floods this decade, and the data show that
damaging floods such as those that struck China and Pakistan in 2010 did
not occur at random, but were tied to ocean conditions.
Each year, seasonal climate factors, such as the jet stream, tropical
storms, or long-lived high-pressure zones, conspire to direct water out
of these areas in a focused way, producing "atmospheric rivers" of water
vapor capable of carrying more moisture than the Amazon River.
Floods can result where these, and other high-moisture streams, hit
land.
That's why the 2010 floods and the moisture that caused them were
concentrated in a narrower than usual band of latitudes that included
Pakistan and Southern China, Lall said.
In general, it is believed that climate change will bring more
precipitation to northern regions, while more southerly ones, like the
American Southwest and parts of the Mediterranean, will become drier,
Lall said.
"We're at the point where timely reversal of climate change is
unlikely," he said, "so we need a strategy in terms of impact." Julia
Slingo, chief scientist at MET, Great Britain's weather-forecasting
agency, agrees. "I would argue that being resilient today will help us
adapt as our climate changes," she said.
Using local weather data, Slingo was able to predict record flooding
in Britain's Lake District in 2009 with remarkable accuracy. She may be
more optimistic than Lall, saying she thinks scientists may be able to
predict floods the magnitude of the 2010 Pakistan floods about a week in
advance.
One surprising find was that despite well-publicized disasters in
Pakistan, China, and a few other places, 2010 wasn't actually a bad year
for floods. Instead, Lall found that there were relatively few severe
events compared to such flood-ravaged years as 2002, 2003, and 2007.
-National Geographic
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