Warming could double food prices, say global experts
Even if we stopped spewing global warming gases today, the world
would face a steady rise in food prices this century. But on our current
emissions path, climate change becomes the “threat multiplier” that
could double grain prices by 2050 and leave millions more children
malnourished, global food experts reported.
In this March 30, 2004 file photo, a oman piles up wheat after
harvesting at a farm in village Majra Khurd of Haryana. On our
current emissions path, climate change becomes the “threat
multiplier” that could double grain prices by 2050 and leave
millions more children malnourished, global food experts say. AP |
Beyond 2050, when climate scientists project temperatures might rise
to as much as 6.4 degrees C (11.5 degrees F) over 20th century levels,
the planet grows ‘gloomy’ for agriculture, said senior research fellow
Gerald Nelson of the International Food Policy Research Institute.
The specialists of the authoritative, Washington-based IFPRI said
they fed 15 scenarios of population and income growth into supercomputer
models of climate and found that “climate change worsens future human
well-being, especially among the world’s poorest people.” The study,
issued here at the annual UN climate conference, said prices will be
driven up by a combination of factors: a slowdown in productivity in
some places caused by warming and shifting rain patterns, and an
increase in demand because of population and income growth.
Change apparently already is under way. Returning from northern
India, agricultural scientist Andrew Jarvis said wheat farmers there
were finding warming was maturing their crops too quickly. “The
temperatures are high and they’re getting reduced yields,” Jarvis, of
the Colombia-based International Centre for Tropical Agriculture, told
reporters last month.
For most farmers around the world, trying to adapt to these changes
“will pose major challenges,” Wednesday’s IFPRI report said. Research
points to future climate disruption for agricultural zones in much of
sub-Saharan Africa, south Asia and parts of Latin America, including
Mexico. In one combination of climate models and scenarios, “the corn
belt in the United States could actually see a significant reduction in
productivity potential,” Nelson told reporters here.
The Hindu |