Need to boost natural rubber production

Dr N Yogaratnam

Global demand for natural rubber (NR) is expected to progressively increase from 9.7 million tonnes in 2009 to 15 million tonnes in 2035 if NR is to maintain it’s forty percent share of the total elastomers consumed globally.

There is a growing perception that in the interests of the environment and to minimize the effects of global warming it would be prudent to increase NR’s share of the total elastomer consumption to fifty percent thus necessitating an additional cultivation of four million hectares of rubber.

The spiralling increase in crude petroleum prices and its consequent impact on production costs of synthetic rubber has further improved the long term prospects for natural rubber.

In the light of these projections it is necessary to ensure that sufficient supplies of NR are made available over the next two decades to satisfy the growing demand.

This article discusses various strategies and approaches available to enhance natural rubber production over the short, medium and long term to meet rising global demand.

Supply/demand total rubber demand

The total demand is expected to increase from 21 million tonnes in 2009 to 36 million tonnes in 2035.

The increase in synthetic rubber will be from 11.75 million tonnes to 21.3 million tonnes while the increase for natural rubber will be from 9.4 million tonnes in 2009 to 15 million tonnes by 2035.

The tyre industry elastomer demand is projected to increase from 13.3 million tonnes in 2009 to 20.65 million tonnes in 2035 with bulk of rubber used for tyres of light vehicles and medium/heavy commercial vehicles.

The general rubber goods demand will increase from 11.2 million tonnes in 2005 to 15.6 million tonnes in 2035.

The synthetic rubber consumption for tyre manufacture will increase from about 7 million tonnes in 2005 to slightly above 20 million tonnes in 2035 whereas for natural rubber the increase will be from about 5.9 million tonnes to 11 million tonnes over the same period. For the general rubber goods sector the increase for synthetic rubber will be from 10 million tonnes in 2005 to slightly below 16 million tonnes in year 2035 while for natural rubber over the same period the increase will be from slightly above 2.6 million tonnes to 4.1 million tonnes. The bulk of the demand for NR would continue to be in the tyre sector.

Price projections

A number of economists have predicted that NR prices will continue to be favourable with possibly an upward trend over the next several years based on projected increase in consumption in China and India due to expansion in their respective automotive industries and a tight market due to insufficient supply of NR.

The current prices have already breached the earlier predicted price of USD 2 per kg in year 2007/08. It is forecast that prices will increase further in subsequent years.

It is predicted that NR prices will rule high for 10 to 15 years unless there is major economic slowdown like the last Asian crisis .Natural Rubber prices are likely to remain high for at least another decade thus providing a bright future for this commodity.

Positive factors

A number of positive developments in the rubber industry lend support to the predictions and forecasts on prices of NR over the next couple of years.

These besides the expected growth in demand for NR in China and India to service their respective automotive industries include among others the impact of the rising petroleum prices on cost of production of synthetic rubbers, the choice of NR as the preferred polymer due to environmental concerns as evident from lack of massive substitution of NR by SR despite the latter being priced 25 percent lower than NR.

The price support schemes worked out by members of IRCo and to be implemented in the event of decline in prices and the continued tight supply situation resulting from disruption in tapping operations in southern provinces of Thailand due to security concerns , scaling up of domestic manufacturing in Malaysia, Thailand and Indonesia with reduced availability of NR for the global market and the changing global weather pattern which has adversely affected tapping operations in most of the NR producing countries, are also some of the factors.

Pricing mechanism

The ecological strengths and the environmental benefits of NR cultivation should be duly appreciated, recognized and rewarded as an integral part of the sustainable development of the NR industry.

This is of particular significance given the fact that rubber is largely a smallholders crop cultivated on land areas less than five hectares in majority of NR producing countries.

It is widely accepted that NR cultivation is good for Planet Earth and thus smallholders should be encouraged to remain in the industry over the long term with new planting and replanting.

However, presently replanting in smallholdings in most countries is financed by a replanting grant provided by the government through a compulsory cess collection imposed during the mature phase or through self-financing by the smallholders themselves.

Hence the future pricing mechanism for NR should take in to account the need to reward smallholders for cultivation of NR and provide them with adequate funds to sustain cyclical replanting over the long term.

Strategies and approaches replanting

The existing stand of eight million plus hectares of rubber trees consists largely of clones with average to moderate inherent yield potentials. These clones developed in the sixties and seventies have been planted on an extensive scale in some of the major NR producing countries.

Thus in Thailand 80 percent of the area has been planted with Clone RRIM 600 , in Indonesia 60 to 70 percent of the area planted with Clone GT 1 or Clonal seedlings, in India 85 percent of the area planted with Clone RRII 105 while in China 50 to 60 percent of the area planted with Clones RRIM 600 and GT 1.

In Sri Lanka, the out-dated clone PB 86 still covers an extent of about 30 percent of the total extent followed by RRIC 100, with 30 percent and RRIC 121, with 32.9 percent in extent.

There is, therefore, an urgent need to diversify and broaden the range of clones planted commercially in several NR producing countries in the long term interests of the NR industry

The average yield productivity of the smallholding sector in India is 1734 kg/ha/yr while in the estate sector it is 1445 kg/ha/yr , in Malaysia the yield productivity of smallholdings is 1300 kg/ha/yr , in Thailand the average yield productivity in smallholdings is 1600 kg/ha/yr , in Indonesia the average yield productivity in smallholdings is 703 kg/ha/yr while the average yield productivity in State Farms in China is 1034 kg/ha/yr.

The average national productivity based on year 2008 data was 900 kg/ha/yr in Brazil, 900 kg/ha/yr in Liberia, 1382 kg /ha/yr in Sri Lanka, in Vietnam, 1720 kg/ha/yr ( plantations ) and 1559 kg/ha/yr in Cote d’Ivoire.

In most of the NR producing countries in recent years, several new high yielding clones with yield potentials in the range of 2000 to 3000 kg/ha/yr have been introduced for commercial planting .

These in Malaysia include both the latex timber clones and latex clones selected from the RRIM 2000 series, RRIM 900 series ( second selection ) and PB 300 series. The projected yield potential of the second selection RRIM 2000 series ( RRIM 2023 to 2027 ) ranges from 2204 to 3036 kg/ha/yr.

In Thailand a new clone RRIT 251 with higher yield potential than RRIM 600 has been recommended for planting , in Indonesia new Clones IRR 104, IRR 112, IRR 118, IRR 211 and IRR 220 have been recommended for commercial planting in smallholdings and plantations, in Vietnam RRIV 1 and 4, LH 83/75 and LH 83/85 clones with yield potentials of 2055 to 2199 kg/ha/yr are being planted commercially while in India a number of RRII 400 series of clones with much higher yield potential than RRII 105 were recently recommended for commercial planting.

In Sri Lanka, the yield potential of the newer clones is in the range of 2500 kg/ha/ yr to 4,043 kg/ha/yr where as the national average is still around 1382 kg.

It is therefore, incumbent upon the producers to embark on a program to aggressively replant uneconomic old stands of rubber with modern precocious high yielding clones in order as to increase NR production in their respective countries.

New plantings

It is recognized that there is a need to expand markedly the hectarage of rubber beyond the present eight million hectares to cater for increased global demand of NR over the medium to long term.

It is also evident that among the current six largest producers of NR, only Indonesia has potential to expand significantly its hectarage of rubber.

In Thailand and Malaysia scarcity of suitable land and competition from other lucrative crops such as Oil Palm for land precludes any possibility for marked increase in hectarages for new plantings.

This is likely to be compounded further in the foreseeable future in the three major NR producing countries if as expected Palm Oil as Biofuel becomes an economically viable option in the light of rapidly increasing crude petroleum prices resulting in a need to vastly increase the hectarages for Oil Palm planting to service both the food and transport industries.

Exhaustion of suitable land for NR cultivation in both China and Vietnam and in the traditional rubber belt area of India will not allow for any expansion in hectarage in these countries.

There are prospects for increasing the hectarage for new planting in non-traditional areas in India , Thailand and to a lesser extent in Sri Lanka.

Thus in India one million hectares inclusive of degraded forest land have been identified in the North East region, 160,000 hectares in North and North East Provinces of Thailand and about 40,000 to 50,000 hectares in Sri Lanka.

It is not certain however if cultivation of rubber in non-traditional areas would be the best option given the fact that conditions are sub-optimal while in Thailand the shift to the Northern Provinces is largely to offset conversion of existing rubber areas in the South to Oil Palm cultivation.

The greatest potential for expansion of rubber hectarage is in countries where its cultivation has not been fully exploited despite having huge land bank and favourable agroclimatic conditions, due to socio-economic factors coupled with lack of adequate financial resources.

These countries are Kampuchea, Myanmar, Philippines, Papua New Guinea, Ivory Coast, Liberia, Nigeria and Cameroon.

In fact in Philippines 1.2 million hectares of land in Mindanao has been identified as suitable for planting of rubber.

A potential source of funding for new plantings of rubber if it could be worked out among all stakeholders in the value chain, could come from creation of a Proto-Type Rubber Carbon Fund on the premise that all stakeholders particularly at the consumer end of the value chain accept the ecological strengths and environmental benefits of natural rubber cultivation to planet Earth.

RRIMFLOW system

The RRIM FLOW system which is the oldest mode of gaseous stimulation for rubber trees has been proven to be very effective in enhancing the yield productivity of a broad spectrum of popularly planted clones of varying ages tapped either on basal or high panels in a number of NR producing countries.

Although this technology is yet to become popular in Sri Lanka, the NR industry can go for this at least on renewed panels, until more experience is gathered.

Smallholdings

In most NR producing countries with the possible exception of India the yield productivity of rubber smallholdings is way below that of plantations and markedly lower than the inherent genetic yield potential of clones planted.

This is largely due to the low level of technology transfer and adoption arising from ineffective extension services.

The smallholders have become the driving force of the NR industry in several countries with plantations moving out into cultivation of more lucrative and less labour intensive crops.

If the global NR production is to be sustained and expanded there is a need to uplift the agronomic status and quality of smallholdings.

There should be an effective transfer of technologies that will allow for planting of good quality planting materials of proven high yielding clones, reduced immaturity period with adoption of appropriate agronomic practices, maintaining a high stand of trees at time of opening for tapping and adoption of effective exploitation systems that will allow for sustained high yield over the long term without reduction of the economic life span of the trees.

Shortage of tappers

It is becoming increasingly difficult in several NR producing countries to attract labour to work as tappers in plantations and smallholdings despite increase in wages with better selling prices of rubber over the last several years.

This is compounded by the fact that NR is a very labour intensive crop that has consistently defied mechanization or automation particularly of tapping operations.

This problem has gained added significance in recent years with proponents of Guayule rubber promoting it as an alternative source of rubber since cultivation of this crop lends itself easily to mechanized farming and harvesting particularly given the labour problems plaguing the NR industry.

Over the long term, survival of the NR industry will depend on some degree of mechanization or automation.

Weather on tapping

Over the years climate has undergone major changes in the areas where its rubber estates are located. Both the early morning (minimum) temperature and afternoon (maximum) temperature have gone up in recent years.

It is felt that this has substantially affected the growth rate and productivity of estates. .

Generally, tapping starts in rubber estates by 6.30 am and latex collection would start at 10.00 am and it will be over by 12.00 noon.

Considering that the morning temperatures have gone up in the recent years and knowing that cooler temperatures will favour better yield, some reports indicate that commencement of tapping to 3.00 am has resulted in 20 to 30 per cent increase in productivity with substantial reduction in the percentage of field coagulum. It is suggested that likely higher turgor pressure prevailing in the cooler hours of early morning was responsible for the better yield.

Since the latex was collected only after sunrise there was adequate time for dripping to stop and therefore the percentage of field coagulum was less.

Early morning collection of latex ensured better preservation of latex due to the congenial temperature during this time.

In order to carry out effective tapping, the tappers were provided with superior quality headlights and better tapper productivity led to 20 per cent more earnings for the tapper. The increase in production and productivity ensured that the investment in these equipments was paid back within a period of less than a week in most cases

In conclusion, NR has been fortunate that thus far there has been no pressure on the producers to conform to criteria for sustainable cultivation of NR though this is not the case with other major commodities such as coffee, cocoa , tea , bananas , timber, soya bean and most recently oil palm.

These other commodities are all now governed by voluntary codes of conduct or joint initiatives on sustainability worked out among all stakeholders across the value chain.

Since the agenda on this issue is still under the control of the producers it would be prudent to initiate the process for formulating the criteria on sustainable cultivation of NR.