Developing Asia’s recovery gains further momentum
Developing Asia’s robust recovery from the global crisis is gaining
further momentum, the Asian Development Bank (ADB) says in its annual
flagship economic publication Asian Development Outlook 2010 Update,
released on Tuesday.
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City of Hong Kong |
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ADB headquarters |
The report forecasts healthy growth of 8.2 percent in 2010, well
above 5.4 percent recorded in 2009 and also above ADB’s earlier forecast
of 7.5 percent in ADO 2010, released in April. Strong export recovery,
robust private demand, and the sustained effects of stimulus policies
allowed the region to experience solid growth in the first half of 2010.
This improved performance is broad-based and is projected to carry on
for the rest of the year.
The region’s two giants continue to perform strongly, lifting up the
growth of the entire region. ADB’s 2010 forecast for the People’s
Republic of China (PRC), where double-digit growth in the first half of
2010 is expected to moderate somewhat in the second half, remains
elevated at 9.6 percent. ADB’s 2010 forecast for India are slightly
upgraded to 8.5 percent from 8.2 percent in April.
“Developing Asia’s recovery has led the world. The speed and strength
of the region’s rebound continues to surprise on the upside, allowing
ADB to upgrade its 2010 growth forecasts for each of the sub-regions.
The V-shaped recovery has laid the foundation for sustained growth
beyond the short term,” says ADB Chief Economist Jong-Wha Lee.
Despite the region’s vigorous rebound, inflationary pressures remain
manageable. In fact, inflation is forecast to be generally within the
central banks’ comfort zones, at 4.1 percent for 2010 and 3.9 percent
for 2011.
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Seen a steady growth |
The one big cloud hanging over the region’s otherwise sunny
short-term horizon is the continued fragility and uncertainty of
recovery in the industrialized countries. While these countries have
performed better than expected in the first quarter, their growth
momentum slowed down noticeably in the second quarter. The threat of
another contraction in industrialized countries still remains, although
the likelihood is small.
This risk from the industrialized countries is a major reason why ADB
is maintaining its 2011 growth forecast at 7.3 percent, which marks a
moderation from the 8.2 percent of 2010.
ADB |
