Asia accounts for third of world output in five years -IMF
Asia's economy, including Australia and New Zealand, will be about 50
percent larger in five years, accounting for more than a third of world
output, Australian Associated Press (AAP) quoted IMF as saying on
Wednesday.
The Finance and Development Magazine of the International Monetary
Fund (IMF) for June released in Washington on Tuesday also said in 20
years' time, Asian gross domestic product (GDP) will exceed that of the
Group of Seven (G7) major industrial economies the United States, Japan,
Britain, France, Germany, Canada and Italy.
"The possibility that Asia could become the world's largest economic
region by 2030 is not idle speculation," IMF's of Asia and Pacific
Development Director Annop Singh said in his article 'Asia - Leading the
Way.' "It seems very plausible, based on what Asia has already achieved
in (two) decades," he said.
This included Asia's emerging economies doubling their share of world
trade and tripling their share of world gross domestic product (GDP).
China and India, Australia's No 1 trading partner and its third
export destination, respectively, have been leading the way. But the
"phenomenon" is by no means limited to these two countries, Singh said,
adding that Asia's economic importance is "unmistakable and palpable".
Asia has been making a stronger contribution to the global recovery
than any other region and, in contrast to previous episodes, recovery in
many Asian countries was being driven by two engines, exports and strong
domestic demand.
This in part reflects policy stimulus, but also resilient private
demand.
Asia was not heavily exposed to the kinds of toxic securities that
were at the centre of global financial crisis, but its exports were hurt
by the collapse in demand from advanced economies.
"The impact of the external shock was mitigated for countries with
large domestic demand bases, such as China, India, and Indonesia, and
some of the commodity producers, such as Australia," Singh said.
By the end of 2009, economies across the region rebounded strongly,
and output and exports had returned to pre-crisis levels in most of
Asia, including in the hardest-hit economies. "Although there are still
near-term risks in the outlook, in many ways Asia is emerging from the
recession with its standing in the world strengthened," Singh wrote.
"The risks include Asia's - and other regions' - vulnerability to
renewed negative shocks to global growth and financial markets."
But, Singh said, countries across the region have strengthened their
monetary and fiscal policy frameworks, while boosting domestic demand
and deepening financial linkages with other economies.
The development of infrastructure to boost growth potential is going
ahead rapidly in many countries and barriers to trade are being lifted
"in ways that will allow more people to enjoy the gains from
international trade", Singh noted. - Xinhua |