Korean War: Is a second edition imminent?

Jayatilleke de Silva

Tensions sparked between North and South Korea following the incident of South Korean ship being sunk. Will this reignite the Korean war?

[Korean War ]

* Fought duing : 1950-19553

* Main parties: The Republic of Korea, supported by the United Nations, and the Democratic People's Republic of Korea and People's Republic of China (PRC), air support from the Soviet Union.

* Reason: A result of the political division of Korea by agreement of the victorious Allies at the conclusion of the Pacific War. It was the first significant armed conflict of the Cold War.
Courtesy: Wikipedia

The international wire services were full of news from the Korean peninsula for the last couple of weeks. South Korea officially claimed that North Korea had sunk one of its naval ships, the Cheonan on March 26, killing 46 of its navy personnel. A statement issued by Republic of Korea National Defence Ministry on May 20 that a Joint Civilian-Military Investigation Group (JIG) has confirmed the complicity of North Korea in the sinking of Cheonan.

The group comprised 25 experts from 10 top Korean expert agencies, 22 military experts, three experts recommended by the National Assembly, and 24 foreign experts constituting four support teams from the United States, Australia, the United Kingdom and the Kingdom of Sweden.

However, North Korea rejected the allegations and declared its innocence. On May 24 South Korea cut off trade relations with North Korea, denied North Korean merchant ships use of its sea lanes and called on the United Nations to censure the North for the sinking of Cheonan.

It also declared its intention to resume propaganda broadcasts aimed at the North that were carried out with the use of loudspeakers on the South Korean side of the demilitarized zone dividing the two Koreas.

The North retaliated with a threat to cut off all relations with the South, banned its air space and sea lanes for South Korean airplanes and ships and expelled South Korean Government officials in the Kaesong Free Trade Zone and prohibited the removal of any material from that zone without its prior approval. Sanctions would be met with an all out war, the North threatened. Meanwhile, joint military exercises by the United States and South Korea were also announced.

A calm Seoul

The scenario pictured by the wire services and pronouncements of politicians on both sides of the divide was one of imminent wars. It is at this juncture that the writer had an opportunity be in Seoul and assess the ground situation.

Surprisingly the atmosphere in Seoul was calm. People were going about in their usual routine of work. There was no anxiety written on their faces. Nor did they give out any behavioural pattern that betrayed a fear of an imminent catastrophe. War would be another catastrophe, for sure.

An Editor of a responsible newspaper when queried said that the people have experienced such scenes many a time before and are not apprehensive. Whether the North Koreans have sunk the Cheonan or not such tirades of accusations and counter-accusations were not rare before elections, he explained. The Municipal elections in South Korea were scheduled for June 3. (Incidentally the Opposition won the majority of seats)

Of course, the Editor was expressing a current of thoughts prevalent at the grass roots level. Subsequent developments, however, confirmed somewhat the viewpoint of the Editor. Both sides withdrew to some extent from the positions officially declared.

The propaganda blast hasn’t yet begun. Nor has the North closed all channels of communication with the South. It, in fact, announced that the work at the Kaesong Free Trade Zone would go on as usual. Even goods produced there were sent to the South without a hassle.

Korea University North Korean Studies, Professor Ho-Yeol Yoo dismissed fears of a new Cold War as unfounded. Both sides are treading cautiously, he explained. For example, he said that the South Korean Defence Ministry statement did not refer to Kim Il Jong by name so as to leave him with an honourable exit path get out of the situation.

It is necessary to understand the present day geo-political realities, if one were to draw rational conclusions from the developments in the Korean peninsula. Though North Korea may be no match for the South Korean-US combined military strength, force does not solve all issues. Besides, the North has enough lethal power within its range to inflict heavy damage to the South though it may not win a protracted war.

The Chinese factor

Economics would have precedence over politics. China is a strong trade partner of South Korea. In fact, South Korean trade with China is expected to top US $ 200 billion this year. The two countries have also started preliminary negotiations for a Free Trade Agreement.

A recent Summit meeting of South Korea, China and Japan decided to conduct a joint feasibility study to set up a Free Trade Area comprising the three countries by 2012. China being a strong ally of North Korea, and a key trade partner of South Korea, much will depend on the position taken by China. It is unthinkable that either the North or the South would be rash enough to displease China, the emerging global power.

On the other hand, the United States’ capabilities are also limited. Since the United States needs China more than China needs the United States economically and the US is heavily indebted to China.

A US - China conflagration in the Korean peninsula is highly unlikely today or even in the near future. Cheonan issue, China stood firm. While saying that China would “determine its position based on an objective and impartial judgment”. Wen did not forget to add that China “denounces and opposes any attempt to destroy the peace and security in the Korean peninsula”.

Apparently South Korean people too seem to have similar thoughts. In a rebuff to the Government’s handling of the Cheonan issue they have voted the Opposition into power in the majority of municipal areas. While it may not mean solidarity with the North one thing is clear. That is the Koreans prefer peace to war. The Lee administration’s handling of the Cheonan issue has boomeranged on it.