Higher growth: Trade rebounds in Asia
The pattern of
recovery in international trade is in line with the growth prognosis for
the global economy as seen by the International Monetary Fund and other
major global institutions, which believe that developing countries led
by China and India will post higher growth rates than the developed
countries.
The World Trade Organization foresees a sharp recovery in global
trade in 2010. The projected 9.5 percent growth, apart from being
impressive by itself, will also represent a sharp rebound from 2009,
when world trade contracted as never before in seven decades.
Exports from developed countries are forecast to rise by 7.5 percent.
Shipments from the rest of the world will grow by around 11 percent.
The pattern of recovery in international trade is in line with the
growth prognosis for the global economy as seen by the International
Monetary Fund and other major global institutions, which believe that
developing countries led by China and India will post higher growth
rates than the developed countries.
The strong expansion in trade during the current year will help
recover some, but by no means all, of the ground lost in 2009. It would
take another year of similar expansion to surpass the peak trade volumes
of 2008. Practically all forecasters had underestimated the extent of
trade decline during the crisis period. The WTO’s estimate of 10 percent
fell short of the actual figure by more than two percentage points.
The sharp decline in trade volumes is attributed to the abrupt fall
in global demand. The financial crisis contributed to the lower demand
in at least two ways. In the rich countries the home mortgage crisis
weakened considerably the spending power of households, and in general,
consumers tended to postpone their buying decisions. The complete drying
up of trade finance was another factor. It is also true that trade
statistics were exaggerated in the first place.
The complex supply chains used by producers resulted in the movement
of goods across several national boundaries before reaching their
destination. This caused double counting. Also, some articles, notably
consumer durables have a disproportionately large share in global trade
compared to their share in global output.
So as people stayed away from discretionary goods, the decline in
trade was steeper than that of global output. The WTO says the
multilateral system of trade has proved its value, assisting governments
in keeping markets open during difficult times. According to an official
study prepared for the WTO and two other organizations, the feared surge
in protectionism has not occurred even in the recovery phase. Yet there
are many critics who say that more subtle forms of protectionism are now
practised.
Courtesy: The Hindu |