Sri Lankan denouement
Mahinda Rajapaksa’s victory in Sri Lanka’s Presidential election has
exceeded all expectations, including the most optimistic projections
made within the President’s camp on the basis of hard-nosed pre-election
opinion polls. The 17.73 percentage point margin of win is a
reaffirmation of the maturity and good sense of ordinary voters who,
given a choice between an experienced political leader in the saddle and
an unpredictable adventurer sponsored by an unnatural combination of
political irreconcilables, made it a virtual no-contest at the national
level.
The divergence in the voting behaviour of the Tamil minority and the
Sinhala majority was as striking as it was expected; in turnout as well
as choice of candidate, they behaved as polar opposites.
This gives us a measure of the trust gap in the polity that needs to
be bridged if Sri Lanka is to do well in future. Unfortunately, the
election was also unusually bitter, with unsubstantiated allegations,
personal attacks, and conspiracy theories flying thick and fast and the
challenger, retired General Sarath Fonseka, introducing a paranoid note
into the campaigning.
Presidential election
Everybody knew in advance that it was the successful ending of the
26-year-old civil war and the elimination of the Liberation Tigers of
Tamil Eelam as a politico-military formation that had pre-determined the
character of a Presidential election brought forward by two years.
Everybody also knew that Army Commander Fonseka commanded the respect
of his men and had a reputation for professionalism - as long as he
stayed a soldier. The problem was that, from time to time, he crossed
the lines and betrayed vaingloriousness, chauvinism, foot-in-the-mouth
disease symptoms and hints of political ambition.
The last thing Sri Lanka needed at this juncture was yet another
South Asian variant of Bonapartism, or any more politicisation of the
military that we have witnessed in recent months.
Parliamentary elections
Instead of waging a good political and ideological fight, the
combined forces of the Opposition - the centre-right United National
Party, the ultra-left Janatha Vimukthi Peramuna, the minor league Sri
Lanka Freedom Party (Mahajana wing) and the pro-LTTE Tamil National
Alliance - showed appalling political judgment in lining up behind a
candidate whose agenda for change was so vague, so empty-headed, and so
self-contradictory that it made no political sense and, in fact, damaged
the credibility of his sponsors.
It is by no means clear that a serious UNP candidate like Ranil
Wickremesinghe would have fared worse than General Fonseka, who is not
even a registered voter, in a Presidential contest. After this drama,
politics in the island can return to a more normal state ahead of
Parliamentary elections, which are due in April 2010.
The hope is that the campaigning will be on real issues, most
importantly, a just and sustainable political solution to the Tamil
question based on genuine devolution of power within a united Sri Lanka,
and revitalisation and development of the war-ravaged areas of the
North.
- The Hindu |